I have just looked through the ECM output and it is dire.

How does it look in the 254 to 1700 hr range? 

How does it look in the 254 to 1700 hr range? 

Dire

 

Dire

I think we are a million miles away from 'proper winter' CC. The only thing saving us from a near record breaking hairdryer on the latest output is low heights from North Africa fringing into Spain which just dislodge the monstrous Euro High a bit further North.

The PV is intense and situated in it's familiar locale. I see Tony (Lorenzo) has conceded the NW winter forecast, Tony is a good guy but he's never got one right yet. 

We have been used to seeing 'letdowns' in the past but mainly from when the NWP (that we see) has offered a series of teases and oftern charts showing HLB that have come within relatively short timeframes but often these have been knocked back by the METO and their own models. This time it is something of a reversal with the METO outlooks being out of kilter with the reality of the day to day modelling.

Ultimately we are ten days in and in a pretty normal set-up for early winter, it's just that the expectation, much of it justified from what we are all seeing, has not been delivered upon and we have the familiar +VE NAO/AO sert-up to deal with. The angst that this causes on forums isn't because it's here, it's because of it's longevity in the modern era praying on people's minds.

*************Whether Idle's Winter forecast************

Issued 21st December 2016.  Valid until 23rd March 2017.

Headline - Varied.  Mild start Colder Finish.  Dry in England. Stormy at times, especially so in Scotland.

Methodolgy: SSTs, Ice cover, Experience and Gut Feeling.

SSTs: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/ncoda_web/dynamic/ncoda_1440x721_global_anom.gif

The SST anomaly shows that the North Atlantic GIN sea area and Arctic Ocean are much warmer than the LTA.  Between 1 and 7c warmer.  This means northerlies from the Arctic will lack their usual cold bite.

An area of ocean off Newfoundland ... anomalies on the left and SST actual on the right>

-

The water to the north is much colder, and the water to the south much warmer than usual - the thermal gradient is extreme and likely to produce storm after storm this winter which will ride east towards Europe on the jet.  The water is 20c different temperature in the space of 70 miles.  Astonishing.

Ice:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

Shows the current 11.8million km, about 1.3million km 2 less than the LTA for 20 December, and the least sea Ice recorded at this time (its been the same all autumn) since measurements began. We are about 3 weeks "behind "the curve.  This will blunt the depth of any cold that arrives from the North.

  Gut feeling indicates to me the Ice and SST situation will be influential early on (20 Dec-20 Jan).

***********************************************************************************************

Dates provided are for guidance only 😉.....

Broad scenario -21 Dec - 20 January - generally zonal.  Mild the cool then mild as pM air alternates with tM air.  Windier and wetter towards NW.  More settled and drier towards SE.  Mid latitude high will at times deflect storm systems to the N and W of the UK, at other times the storms will affect Scotland.  Excellent month for generation of wind power in N and W of UK.  Possibly exceptionally dry in SE. Lowland snow fleeting and non-disruptive, some frost and fog in the south.

21 January - 24 January  brief easterly type cold, frosty with wintry showers on prone coasts.   Storminess resumes  by around January 26th, possible transitional snowfall.

27 January - 5 February - Stormy, unsettled.  (This time also affecting areas further S). By turn of the month, finally pressure drops over southern and eastern Europe.  Cooler, unsettled, wetter for south.  Windy, wintry showers on northern Hills. Wind between WSW and NW.

7 February - 14 February - Drier and colder period.  Frost.  Isolated snow flurries. Easterly winds with Anticyclonic conditions also.

15-23 February- More mobile and westerly.  Average temperature and rainfall.

23 February - March 12.  COLDEST period of the winter.  Winds swinging NW then N then NE then E with northern blocking. Snow in upland areas and possibly more generally in N and E.

March 13-23.  Anticyclonic, dry, pleasantly mild at times in S and E.

Notes :I expect the sea ice and temperature anomalies will be much closer to LTAs by late winter, resulting in our best shot at snow in the latter third of winter (ie 20 Feb - 23 March). 

The big pattern change that will allow the cooler 2nd half will be the lowering of pressure over eastern Europe as potent storm systems penetrate from west to east. NB potentially very wet and windy in NW from 21 Dec- mid February.

****************************************************************************************************

Whether Idle 21st December 2016.

Good read WI but needless to say I hope you're wrong as I'm hoping for a 1947 type of winter for the last two thirds of the season. 🤡

Cheers SC.  I hope I'm wrong too, as I love a bit of snow and cold, but I don't think there will be much on offer for most of us this year, though as my forecast suggests, it wont be without its opportunities later on, edit - have made one or two tweaks to suggest a little more detail.

Thanks WI. Good effort. 

Sounds shite with any poultry offerings mainly occurring late Feb early March.

Another disastrous winter for lowland southern Britain. 

Thanks WI. Good effort. 

Sounds shite with any poultry offerings mainly occurring late Feb early March.

Another disastrous winter for lowland southern Britain. 

 

LOL! Hey, thanks Steve!  Yes, its not a forecast likely to be purchased by the Daily Express ! I will have to take your comments as a compliment

Thanks WI. Good effort. 

Sounds shite with any poultry offerings mainly occurring late Feb early March.

Another disastrous winter for lowland southern Britain. 

 

As Richard hacked your account. 😂😂😂

Bertwhistles poetic thread is inspiring me SC 

Good stuff WI

Lets hope that its a tad more wintry than you are suggesting

Based on 23 February - March 12.  COLDEST period of the winter.  Winds swinging NW then N then NE then E with northern blocking. Snow in upland areas and possibly more generally in N and E.   Looks like i will miss out as i wil be in Sydney Australia from the 15th Feb to Mar 3rd maybe a shock to the system when i get back..

Alan

Well argued WI.May not like what you say ,with exception of late Feb., but your chronology sounds feasible.

Sounds shite with any poultry offerings mainly occurring late Feb early March. 

I'm expecting poultry offerings to peak around the 25th December, with colder poultry offerings on the 26th.

Well argued WI.May not like what you say ,with exception of late Feb., but your chronology sounds feasible.

Hi Roger, thanks.  If things turn out as I say, it will be the snowiest winter for 4 years for many.  I realise we all have reasonable expectations, but those of us long in the tooth are hampered by memories of winters from 1950's -1980s, which is a handicap these days!

Good stuff WI

Lets hope that its a tad more wintry than you are suggesting

Hi Gooner.

I'm expecting the most snow for 4 winters locally in Kent (which will not be THAT difficult, as there has been none).

WI

Thanks WI. Good effort. 

Sounds shite with any poultry offerings mainly occurring late Feb early March.

Another disastrous winter for lowland southern Britain. 

 

I think you meant paltry.  Here is your special poultry offer though!

lol...paltry not poultry.

Worth a read:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-38417198

How this bodes for winter 2016/17 is open to interpretation.