Please send your predictions to me via PM this month and do not post directly into the thread. This is to avoid tactical predictions as we approach the end of this year's competition.
Yet another very warm month in October with record breaking conditions likely on the 31st. However, there are signs of a significant change as we move into November with temperatures returning back towards average although still probably slightly above where we should be.
The record CET year is still very much on track. As at the end of October the CET for the year as a whole will be the warmest on record.
The deadline for entries without incurring any penalty is 23:59 on Friday evening (31st). However, entries will be accepted up to 23:59 on 2 November (Sunday evening).
November historic data summary
Here is the usual rundown of historic data for previous years.
A real mixed bag on Novembers in recent years. Last year was quite cool with 6.2C and 2010 was also cool with 5.2C. However, 2011 saw 9.6C and 2009 8.7C.
Long run averages:
1971-2000: 6.9C
1981-2010: 7.1C
1994-2013: 7.5C
Here is a chart of the November CET since 1961 with a 10 year moving average.
Here are some details of what the models and forecasters generally are saying at the moment.
GEFS (850 and 2m temps)
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_Manchester_ens.png
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT2_London_ens.png
Temperatures look fairly close to average.
ECM(De Bilt) maximum and minimum temps
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tx
http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/kansverwachtingen_staafdiagram.php?run=00&type=tn
Also looking fairly average for the start of November.
Met office
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?tab=map&map=SignificantWeather&locId=352409
The narrative suggests that overall temperatures will not be too far from average.
Pattern matching (just for fun)
Looking back at last month I concluded with this comment which was pretty close to what actually happened.
"on balance I favour a warm or very warm October with only about a 15% chance of a colder than average October."
So lets look ahead to November.
If we consider years since 1900 where the combined Sept / Oct CET has been 13.3C or more we see that 3 years have gone on to see a cold November with the coldest year being 4.6C in 1921 with 5.4C in 1969. 4 of the 5 most recent years that match the pattern saw a warm November. There were 2 other years close to average.
If we now only consider years where both September and October were more than 0.5C above the 1971-2000 mean and the combined CET was more than 13.3C there are 5 matches. 2 years saw a very warm November being 2006 and 2011, 2 years were average and one (2005) was somewhat below average.
If we also consider years with a cold August then 2011 is really the only decent match and a very close match it is too. That year saw a very warm November indeed with 9.6C.
If we just look at years where the October CET exceeded 12C then several Novembers were a little or a lot above average (5) but an equal number (5) were cooler than average.
So no clear signal really this month. Almost an equal chance of a colder or warmer than average but again a relatively small chance of something close to average. I would say 45% chance of a warm month, 40% chance of a cold month and 15% chance of a close to average month.
From a pure pattern matching position you would go for a warm month based on the strong similarities to 2011 but that would be overly simplistic.
You may have seen my post on Gavin P's latest winter update. To my mind a number of variables other than temperature show a strong correlation to 2009 which also saw a warm September and October and a very warm November.
So on balance I would be inclined to go for another significantly above average month in November.
Latest forecast November CET tracker
After a warm start temperatures are currently expected to trend close to average. However the warm start may be enough to see the overall CET still 1C above average by the 11th.
Edited by moderator
Monday, December 22, 2014 2:16:43 PM
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