My early suspicion is that you might be in luck this year Kev; there is a very persistent pattern these days of blocking turning up to our NE a few times each month, and troughs tending to develop in the mid-Atlantic and either head N then NE over the block or stall out to our W/SW.
Such a setup in summer would likely allow the trough to invade at times, bringing supressed daytime maxima and rather a lot of rain, but on the other hand, troughs could quite often become stalled or slow moving somewhere west of Portugal, pulling up a decent plume for the UK to experience.
In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if summer 2014 was overall notably warmer than average but also wetter than average, perhaps by some margin.
While I don't hold much stock in analogues, 1993/1994 is an uncannily close match in terms of the Nov-Dec/Jan-Feb/Mar pattern sequence, and summer 1994 featured conditions similar to what I'm thinking of for this year.
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On