In terms of seasonal pattern matching and following winters the Summer indicators are compared to spring, rather infrequent.
Taking the 1873-2012 period, only 1 in 4 years provided indicators giving a 67% or above probability of either a warm or cold outcome.
The indicator types are;
Very Warm Dry 8 years 87% folowed by a warmer than average winter.
Cold Wet 20 years 75% followed by a warmer than average winter.
Very Cold,Very Wet 67% followed by a colder than average winter.
At present we have a strong signal from Spring.The season was Very Cold and Dry -around 80% of such years were followed by below average winters.
Edited by user
09 July 2013 07:31:17
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