April mean sea-level pressure anomalies for:
April 2021
April 2022
Based on those, one could be forgiven for expecting similar temperatures, maybe slightly higher in 2022 due to the mean flow being more toward ENE than NNE.
Yet we have a CET of 6.4°C for 2021, lowest since 1986, and one nearly 3°C higher for 2022!
Pretty frustrating for those who have correctly anticipated the dominant blocking pattern for this month based on events in the stratosphere and troposphere... I'm glad I didn't go all-in on the resulting lower temps, just in case!
This excess warmth has been achieved without anything unusual over most of Scandinavia or the North Sea (mean temp anomaly), which suggests to me anomalously warm air frequently followed a clockwise arc around from due west of the UK, where sea temperatures have been impressively high.
Goes to show that you don't necessarily need a westerly dominated month for N. Atlantic sea temps to have a significant impact on how warm it is here - though I suspect it's pretty rare to see high and low pressure areas align in the right way for such a large portion of a month.
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T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)
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