Not so much a plume as a stray feather!

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It was definitely a straw clutch.  Need some warmth now.

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WX summaries: Cold for N Europe week 1 (more so than yesterday) retreating in week 2 (more slowly than yesterday). All 'conventional' Europe still widely below norm; only in the far SE (Black Sea/Caspian) above norm, advancing slowly NW-wards. Warmish above the Med sea but having difficulty making landfall in Europe. Rain widespread both weeks, heaviest to the N of Europe in week 1, slipping S n week 2

Jet: mostly across S europe with a break around Fri 8th when there are spurts near S England

GFS op: current LP moving away S-wards; HP briefly to the SW before new LP breaks off from main depression over Scandi to become 985mb Scotland Wed 6th followed by N-lies. As these fade UK is shown under a col between LP to the SW and NE Sun 10th. That to the SW becomes dominant 985mb Ireland Wed 13th slipping SE-wards but with trough hanging back in the N Sea so more N-lies Sat 16th By Mon 18th there is a N-S ridge off W Ireland in contrast to yesterday when the HP was centred over UK - as a consequence still remaining cool.

GEFS: cold now, mild Tue 5th, cold again Fri 8th, disagreement in ensembles after that. Mean near norm from 10th (delayed return to norm in N esp NW) but interestingly control is cold and op is mild until Fri 15th when they swap places. Rain widespread after Thu 7th (6th in N). Some large snow row figures showing for a couple of days around the 7th/8th

ECM: similar to GFS until later when the col is less pronounced, more of a gap in a trough between Atlantic and Scandi, and by Mon 11th a small closed-circulation LP is over England moving E-wards

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April certainly starting chilly 

And unsettled

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Indeed Marcus . From Tuesday looks like snow again for Scotland and then the risk extending south again.

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Depths of FI still unsettled and chilly .................see where it sits in the ENS

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WX summary: Although the 0C isotherm shrinks a bit, otherwise the isotherms across Europe scarcely move over the next two weeks. In absolute terms, any warmth still struggling  to cross the Med; in relative terms all of W Europe below seasonal norm. For the UK, something of a temp gradient from N to S though the BBC shows this as more extreme with some very cold air in N Scotland and quite mild in the S. Pptn week 1 mostly N of and including a line from France to the Balkans; in week 2 this pivots about the UK an pptn mostly S of than line - but the UK gets it both weeks.

Jet mostly swanning around S Europe but a brief flirtation with UK around Fri 8th; becoming weaker after that date as it returns S-wards

GFS op: milder air working in for a time under influence of HP to SW and W-ly winds but new LP from the N 980mb E Scotland Thu 8th (could be v cold NE-ly over Shetland, while S England just hangs on to milder). This LP merges with a deeper centre over the Baltic and weak N-lies for all Sun 10th, almost immediately followed by ridge from the S and Atlantic trough bringing in S-lies quite strong Tue 12th as trough approaches Ireland and peters out. New Lp on Atlantic Thu 14th with SW-lies for UK, filling as it moves SE to England Sun 18th. A real muddle!

GEFS: for S England, mild by Tue 5th, cool again around Sat 10th, very mild Mon 12th, slowly returning to norm but by then usual variation in ens members; rain mostly in the week beginning Thu 7th but some either side of that. For Scotland, the mild spell Mon 12th only appears ii op & control, other ens members norm or cooler. PPtn 5th-7th (high snow row figures in far N), then a dry-ish spell but setting in again Sun 11th

ECM : resembles GFS to Tue 12th but the trough doesn't then peter out, instead developing as LP in its own right off NW Ireland with trough to Hebrides

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A chillier spell still slight favourite between 7th-11th after that flip a coin 

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ECM looks more mixed than GEFS.

 

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Looks unpleasantly cool up here on both models.

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Is this going to be another one of those  roller coaster weather years I wonder?  One minute well above average and the next somewhat below.

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Could be some huge snow totals in parts of the Highlands over the coming week .

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Just waiting for the first warnings, as you have said, going to perfect skiing for Easter period 👍👍

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Wx summary - still quite cold over N Europe for the time of year but make the most of the cold weather for skiing - significantly milder weather working up from the SW in week 2, Spain actually looking warm, and only E of Poland experiencing cold hanging on. Pptn in week 1 in a broad band from the Atlantic across the UK and N Europe; in week 2 quite different from yesterday with this band breaking up and some very dry weather moving in over Biscay including S Britain.

GFS op: mostly HP at first but depression soon working down from the north 970mb E Scotland Thu 6th mild and cold N-ly for a couple of days while it moves E-wards. Then a switch round with LP off NW Spain Mon 11th and long fetch of S/SE-lies. That fills and a ridge of HP from Azores to Norway sets up Wed 13th whose N part weakens but the whole is back in place by Wed 20th.

GEFS: In the S mild for a few days, cold again around Sat 9th , mild, even warm from Mon 11th for a week before declining to norm. Rain for a few days from Thu 7th, not much after that but not as dry as the op would have it. In the N only near norm from Mon 11th, and pptn  maybe snow before the 7th, dry briefly and more rain generally after Mon 11th

ECM : like GFS but in the later stages the LP is closer to the UK and the ridge is correspondingly shifted further E

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Looks like the Northern blocking may be quite persistent this month, so could end up a cold month, but then again depending on where the blocking is later on we could still have a warm spell.

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Mid next week we could be looking at some warmth in the south, might be high teens which would feel pleasant in any sun. Got fingers crossed

 

Looking like a north-south split for much of the month, to me. Where that line is will dictate which of us suffer (and how much the CET is impacted)

 

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WX summary temps: still rather cold across N Europe incl Scotland for week 1 and W Europe in general below norm for time of year though not quite as marked as previously. In week 2 some proper warmth moving into Spain from SW and Ukraine from SE but although the really cold area shrinks a lot, only modest improvements for the rest of Europe. Pptn from UK and France across to W Russia week 1, fragmenting into smaller patches (notably Greece) in week 2 and dry areas in SW and SE as above.

Jet in the Med at first, then irregularly with loops breaking up the general flow near S England from Fri 8th and then more definitely near N Scotland from Tue 19th

GFS op has HP near Sw Britain fading rapidly with LP from N over Scotland 985 mb tomorrow, deepening as it moves E-wards but leaving N-lies in place for Sat 9th. Atlantic LP then stats to move in but degrades into a N-S trough; this near W Britain Mon 11th S/SE-lies then moves E-wards to Germany by Thu 14th with N/NE-lies. Britain as a whole under HP from Sun 17th but troughs quite close to NW Scotland at first and to SW England later.

GEFS for the S shows cold either side of Sat 9th, mild either side of Wed 13th, mean then back to norm with considerable difference between ens members, rain in small amounts at almost any time with ens members differing as to when. Further N the mild spell is suppressed and is absent in Scotland with temps achieving no better than norm. Also in the N and especially the NW pptn more concentrated in near future and to a lesser extent around Wed 13th, and heavier generally in NW with snow row figures for the Highlands in the 30s for next 5 days.

ECM (mostly 12z on account of needing to post earlier today) differs from GFS later this week with that LP not clearing E-wards quickly, leaving trough over the SW Fri 8th The Atlantic LP then comes in as above but moves to NW of Britain with SW/W-lies in a zonal pattern from Tue 12th, HP centred over Biscay.

FAX clearly shows the development of the LP over Scotland tomorrow from a disturbance in the fronts lying E_W across Scotland today; and interestingly, a Channel Low popping up on Friday embedded in the general N-ly flow

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Thursday is potentially looking like quite a wild day. The GFS has a band of 50mph winds crossing much of Northern England on Thursday morning. This is very unusual for April which is often regarded as the calmest time of the year in the UK, and given the recent warm spell, could cause some damage as many of the trees have already begun opening.

I get a feeling this month may turn into a bit of a repeat of April 2012. I remember similar conditions at times during that month.

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WX summaries: temps not shifting a great deal in week 1 with most of W Europe below average and particularly cold air hanging on around Scandinavia. For week 2 a definite improvement with milder weather moving in from both SE and SW; the really cold air has just about gone except from the Far N, though there is still a below average patch in the E Baltic. The Uk temps look to improve by 2-4C. Pptn patchy over most of Europe week 1, drier week 2 and especially dry over the W including the UK.

Jet is over the Med now, soon fading though briefly resurgent Sun 17th; for the rest, a continual series of loops come and go in the latitude of Britain but none establish a consistently strong flow

GFS op shows LP currently 985mb Hebrides deepening as it crosses Scotland to form centre 970mb Baltic on Friday and small secondary moving up the Channel. Severe gales noted in previous post appear to be local to N Ireland. N-S ridge of HP by Mon 11th with LP nibbling at the SW as that slips down into Spain with new ridge aligned SW-NE Thu 14th. persisting until Wed 20th when pressure remains high though less well defined with hint of Lp to SW.

GEFS dropping to cold around Sat 9th but recovering quickly to mild Wed 13th (v mild in S) and dropping back (with the usual spread of ens members) to seasonal norm by Wed 20th or even a little below after that. Rain or snow for the next couple of days (snow row figures still high for the Highlands though MetO has dropped its weather warning) and for the next two weeks in the E small amounts intermittently and inconsistently between ens members but the W e.g. Belfast, Plymouth with larger totals and more frequent occurrences.

ECM the same as GFS at first but doesn't fancy a ridge of HP instead deepens the LP on the Atlantic, placing it close to Ireland on Mon 11th and (12z) showing it running up the W coast, not down to Spain and creating a zonal SW-ly with HP centre well S in France

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WX summary; the cold area continues to shrink, disappointingly slowly, but in week 1 the below-average area is in a block from Scandinavia down to Greece and Turkey. Some if France and Spain at last just above average; the UK on the fringe of this. The trend continues in week 2. For rainfall, in week 1 it's widely and patchily distributed across Europe but in week 2 mostly confined to the 'below-average' area.

Named storm coming; the 'small depression' previously noted for the Channel tomorrow has been upgraded by the French MetO to named storm Diego with severest effects in France. UK forecasts increasingly tending to rain for southern counties tomorrow - was just a 'few showers for the coast; but now possibly 'rain as far north as Surrey'.

Jet - forecast varies from day to day. Currently Diego ushers in a period when the jet forms loops around France and UK but eventually moves back S-wards to affect the Med from Sat 16th

GFS op -  main LP anchored over the Baltic 975 mb with N-lies for UK for the next few days and Diego a non-event. That slowly fills and new LP off Biscay brings up S-lies by Mon 11th. That also fills without doing more than touching the W coast of UK and is followed by a general rise in pressure achieving 1030mb Cornwall Sat 16th. The HP drifts NW-wards allowing weak NW/N-lies to affect UK but not until after what looks like a very pleasant Easter weekend.

GEFS - In the S, cold until Mon 11th switching very quickly to very mild and only slowly declining to norm about Thu 21st. A little rain more likely around Wed 13th and Wed 20th (again, Diego does not feature). Similar temp profiles across UK; rain heavier in W, also rain more continual in N.

ECM - similar to GFS (Diego a bit more marked, but not much) until Wed 13th when the Atlantic LP stretches across to N Scotland and initiates several days with W-lies rather than S-lies. The rise of pressure for the Easter weekend limited to 1025 mb N France - good for the S but a disappointing weekend for the N

FAX shows Diego 987mb in France, perhaps more notable for rain than wind; otherwise like GFS but the S-lies on Mon 11th have embedded fronts so perhaps a bit wetter to start with.

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I'm not really seeing much sign in the models of this so called warm spell I keep hearing about next week...

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There no warm spells as 15-16C is not warm but average for mid-April.  Seem this stupid climate is now trying to stay cold after the winter so more temperate temps.  Normal high of 25C are often the figure for April yearly, last year was 19C the highest here which is very poor performance.  Sun position are now like late August so it time for temperatures to of 20C should be breached often after mid-month at some point.

WX summary continues to shrink the 0C isotherm and it almost disappears in week 2 but much of C Europe remains below norm and the UK also, just about. Modest improvements from the SW and SE have been scaled back for week 2 since yesterday. Rain concentrated in arcs - week 1 Ireland - Alps - Finland, week 2 Norway - Alps - Black Sea (lots of late snowfall for the Alps?)

GFS Op - Storm Diego disappears into Europe and fills; by Mon 11th LP in SE Atlantic 975mb bringing up S/SW winds before ridge of HP SW-NE establishes over UK Thu 14th, broadening and staying to Tue 19th when it retreats to the Atlantic allowing a trough to set up from Norway to Brittany with plenty of Arctic input Fri 22nd (bad for late-blossoming orchards - hope they get their flowering over in the previous week)

GEFS - switching from cold to (very) mild on Mon 11th with the mean then slowly declining to norm and then below by FRi 22nd. Usual disagreements between ens members but op noticeably below mean and control above it during this period. Small amounts of rain from time to time. In the N less mild and back to norm or below a few days earlier than in the S. In the W esp NW somewhat more rain and in heavier bursts.

ECM - continues its disagreement with GFS on and after Wed 13th with no ridge of HP, instead the Atlantic LP drifts to NW of Scotland and produces W-lies for UK, Hp staying over France until Sun 17th when it moves N to be centred E England

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The land of eternal October strikes back. 

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