WX summary looks much like yesterday "some really cold air in the far NE in week 2, even to the extent of being below average for time of year, but otherwise seasonally cold for most of Europe with the current above-norm temps in week 1 being displaced in week 2. Pptn pattern continues to change daily; week 1 dry for Europe exc the far N (incl N Scotland); week 2 wet for all the W coasts of Europe plus a band stretching across the Baltic and onwards" - the cold in the NE not so much emphasised and rain moving further inland in week 2
Jet model not consistent from day to day: currently looping N of UK until Sat 20th and then a period with little activity near the UK before Fri 26th when the jet begins to flow strongly along the Channel and as this moves off S-wards the UK gets a N-ly flow for the first week of Dec from the leading edge of a loop moving in from the W.
GFS op - zonal flow to Sat 20th with HP strong over S UK, the HP then retrogressing and allowing weak N-lies briefly before re-establishing 1035mb Ireland Tue 22nd. Then an unusual-looking development with LPs Biscay and Iceland joining forces eventually toppling and forming an extended trough Norway - SW England Sat 27th with NE-lies, strong and direct by Sun 28th. This trough fades E-wards, and until Thu 4th we're back to HP W of Ireland, with weak N-lies while the main plunge is over the Baltic
GEFS - current mild spell ends Sun 21st with mean dropping and continuing a degree or three below norm. The majority of runs around Thu 25th are cold (10C below norm) but the mean is pushed up by a v. mild op run (& a couple of others). The same happens around 1st Dec but here it's the control run that's mild. Dry to 21st then plenty of rain, more than yesterday. A few snow row figures appearing even in the S - Inverness often up in the 20s
ECM - like GFS to Wed 23rd when the HP remains W of Ireland and giving a simple and fairly strong northerly, weakening and evolving into a shallow but cold trough down the N Sea Sat 27th.
Certainly significantly colder IMO, though details very much subject to change at short notice, and probably not cold enough to satisfy the rampers.
War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell
Chichester 12m asl