It might not be a mild month overall. Depends on how the big diving trough scenario plays out, assuming it does at all, later next week.
GFS 06z had one of the colder outcomes modelled so far, with a run of cold days and freezing nights dragging my CET estimate down from the low 6s as of 23rd to the low 5s for the final figure.
The 00z, though, wasn't as cold, the CET staying in the higher half of the 5s. Then we have the ECM 00z which looks less cold still based on where it has things as of day 10.
This is all from a provisional Hadley CET starting point for 18th, mind, which may well be 0.1 to 0.3°C too high (as it often is).
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On