This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during December, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.
For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for December should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread.
Historic CET summary for December
1971-2000 5.1C (30 years)
1981-2010 4.6C (30 years)
2000-2019 5.1C (last 20 years)
The warmest December in recent times was 9.7C in 2015, a record. In 2018 there was another warm December with 6.9C. We have not had a significantly colder than average December since the famous 2010 which was the second coldest on record at -0.7C.
Here is a chart of the December CET for all years since 1961
IMAGE. Members enable at bottom of page
Direct link to larger version of the chart
Current model output
GFS 850s generally below average although not hugely so at this point. But definitely looks a very different position to November.
GFS 850s https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=
GFS T2m https://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=5&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=
ECM looks to be similar to GFS - i.e. on the cool side.
ECM ENS http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png
Met Office contingency planners outlook
Not yet available. Will likely be issued on Monday
Edited by moderator
Sunday, January 31, 2021 2:26:14 PM
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Reason: Not specified