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picturesareme
07 November 2020 19:35:49

Eta is looking far more organised/compact compared to last night.

I'm not convinced it's still only a depression - mid table tropical storm I'd say it looks.

Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Air hunter has found it to be stronger at 50mph which is more like what the satellite would suggest.

picturesareme
07 November 2020 19:36:54


 


Doh..... That's because it's now been updated, silly boy.  The earlier update said it was still just a disorganised cluster of thunderstorms with some evidence of a new centre forming.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Not when you posted the link it wasn't, and it's been a depression since it moves out to sea. 

Gandalf The White
07 November 2020 20:40:09


 


Not when you posted the link it wasn't, and it's been a depression since it moves out to sea. 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


Look at the time stamp and then look at the time of my post.


You're wrong.


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


picturesareme
07 November 2020 22:47:34


 


Look at the time stamp and then look at the time of my post.


You're wrong.


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


You are so childish πŸ™„  I checked it 35 minutes after you posted it and it was a topical depression in that link. It has always kept its tropical depression status (or above) as a minimum since making landfal - it never became a remnant low.  

Gandalf The White
07 November 2020 23:25:02


 


You are so childish πŸ™„  I checked it 35 minutes after you posted it and it was a topical depression in that link. It has always kept its tropical depression status (or above) as a minimum since making landfal - it never became a remnant low.  


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


I've looked back at the NHC discussion and it says  "Satellite images show a large area of deep convection associated with Eta, but there is not much organization to the thunderstorm activity. An ASCAT-A pass from several hours ago showed that the circulation of Eta has become a little better defined, and the center was located a fair distance to the west-southwest of what was previously analyzed. The pass also showed that Eta has not strengthened to a tropical storm yet, with the maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range."


Given it said 'not much organisation' and then 'a little better organised' I interpreted that as meaning there wasn't a coherent system at that point.  That was the point I was making. 


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


picturesareme
08 November 2020 00:02:11


 


I've looked back at the NHC discussion and it says  "Satellite images show a large area of deep convection associated with Eta, but there is not much organization to the thunderstorm activity. An ASCAT-A pass from several hours ago showed that the circulation of Eta has become a little better defined, and the center was located a fair distance to the west-southwest of what was previously analyzed. The pass also showed that Eta has not strengthened to a tropical storm yet, with the maximum winds in the 25-30 kt range."


Given it said 'not much organisation' and then 'a little better organised' I interpreted that as meaning there wasn't a coherent system at that point.  That was the point I was making. 


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


Point is it was a tropical depression and this is what you said it wasn't (for some bizarre reason) despite NHC saying it was. 

picturesareme
08 November 2020 00:06:38
Eta now back up to 65mph and could be a hurricane as it approaches Florida - Cuba might be the only thing stopping this from bombing out.
Gandalf The White
08 November 2020 01:25:08


 


Point is it was a tropical depression and this is what you said it wasn't (for some bizarre reason) despite NHC saying it was. 


Originally Posted by: picturesareme 


If it doesn’t have a circulation is it a depression?


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
08 November 2020 07:13:33

Never mind quibbling over arbitrary definitions, Eta was at one point in its history powerful enough to kill 100+ people in Guatemala and create devastation there. 


It now seems that it'll cause some damage as it briefly passes over Cuba before there's a good chance of further intensification over he warm waters over the Florida Straits, perhaps to hurricane level. Because of weak steering, it's gong to hang around of the Gulf Coast of Florida for some time, and NHC is forecasting serious damage through heavy rain and especially storm surge.


Finally in 3 or 4 days' time, there's even the possibility of it recurving to landfall in NW Florida


https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2020/11/eta-regains-tropical-storm-status-heads-for-florida/


 


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
picturesareme
08 November 2020 17:14:00
Eta now forecasted to be a hurricane as it crosses the Florida key's.

I wouldn't be surprised if it attained major hurricane strength again over the next few days as it sits out in the GOM.
picturesareme
09 November 2020 13:55:34
It appears looking at the satellite that Eta drifted a little north then expected over Florida overnight halting it's strengthening for now. Still expected to strengthen when it moves back out to sea.
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
10 November 2020 06:26:03

Eta not quite up to expectations, staying offshore and moving slowly north as a TS over the next few days, not that the west coast of Florid won't have flooding and storm surge. Meanwhile Theta has popped up in mid-Atlantic and is forecast to move across as a TS north of the Canaries, while yet another quite promising disturbance has appeared in the Caribbean (60% chance of development in 5 days - by the standards of this season, that makes it sound like a certainty). Next name up is Iota.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
The Beast from the East
10 November 2020 20:40:51


"We have some alternative facts for you"
Kelly-Ann Conway - special adviser to the President
Gandalf The White
10 November 2020 21:15:53


Eta not quite up to expectations, staying offshore and moving slowly north as a TS over the next few days, not that the west coast of Florid won't have flooding and storm surge. Meanwhile Theta has popped up in mid-Atlantic and is forecast to move across as a TS north of the Canaries, while yet another quite promising disturbance has appeared in the Caribbean (60% chance of development in 5 days - by the standards of this season, that makes it sound like a certainty). Next name up is Iota.


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Will anyone care (about) one Iota?


πŸ˜‰


Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
11 November 2020 07:44:54


 


Will anyone care (about) one Iota?


πŸ˜‰


Originally Posted by: Gandalf The White 


 but joking aside, probability of development is up to 80% so needs watching.


Eta has got a move on and forecast a move to landfall as TS in NW Florida


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Roger Parsons
11 November 2020 07:47:10


 


 but joking aside, probability of development is up to 80% so needs watching.


Eta has got a move on and forecast a move to landfall as TS in NW Florida


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Do we have an ETA for that, DEW?


R.


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
picturesareme
11 November 2020 14:01:58
Eta now a hurricane again.
Lionel Hutz
11 November 2020 17:11:34


 


Do we have an ETA for that, DEW?


R.


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 



Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
11 November 2020 18:04:19


 


Do we have an ETA for that, DEW?


R.


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


After we pass Iota, I'll think up some joke to Kappa all of these


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Roger Parsons
11 November 2020 18:41:01


After we past Iota, I'll think up some joke to Kappa all of these


Originally Posted by: DEW 


I had considered that but controlled myself, David! Would have been like a λ to the slaughter....


R


RogerP
West Lindsey district of Lincolnshire
Everything taken together, here in Lincolnshire are more good things than man could have had the conscience to ask.
William Cobbett, in his Rural Rides - c.1830
Lionel Hutz
11 November 2020 21:34:39


 


I had considered that but controlled myself, David! Would have been like a λ to the slaughter....


R


Originally Posted by: Roger Parsons 


I've heard all these puns before. Can't somebody think of a nu one?embarassed


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
12 November 2020 07:28:25


 


I've heard all these puns before. Can't somebody think of a nu one?embarassed


Originally Posted by: Lionel Hutz 


A mu-ted response would have been better


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
DEW
  • DEW
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
12 November 2020 07:31:18

Eta has got its skates on and is expected to cross Florida and out into the Atlantic today, declining to TD fairly soon; Theta still menacing the Canaries but likely to give them  miss in the end though may hit Madeira; new system n the Caribbean developing nicely. I'd be surprised if it wasn't name by this time tomorrow.


War does not determine who is right, only who is left - Bertrand Russell

Chichester 12m asl
Gandalf The White
12 November 2020 07:33:10
It occurs to me that they misnamed Eta. I know it’s not in the correct sequence but β€˜Donald’ would have been more apt: going nowhere fast and creating mayhem.
Location: South Cambridgeshire
130 metres ASL
52.0N 0.1E


Lionel Hutz
12 November 2020 13:18:39


 


A mu-ted response would have been better


Originally Posted by: DEW 


Very goodlaughing. I did skip one, admittedly. 


Lionel Hutz
Nr.Waterford , S E Ireland
68m ASL



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