Bit miffed at the MJO waking up, against the norm for a La Nina October, so interfering with the pattern... but what can you do?
It's the sort of shorter-timescale variation that will always limit long-range forecasting capabilities beyond the broad direction of travel across 3+ weeks at a time.
The final two days really are looking mild at the moment - GFS 12z for example averages in the mid-teens, raising my rough CET estimate from 10.4 to 10.65°C!
Typical adjustments would then leave us in the ballpark of GW's latest estimate.
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On