see -
http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2011-01/uoc--mfd012811.php
All this could no doubt be due to ocean temperatures only - without the need for AGW. Indian Ocean temperatures, I would imagine are now lower than they have been over the last 20 years.
The increased frequency of drought observed in Eastern Africa over the last 20 years is likely to continue as long as global temperatures continue to rise, according to UC Santa Barbara scientist Park Williams.
The new research, published in Climate Dynamics, indicates that more drought poses increased risk to millions of people in Kenya, Ethiopia, and Somalia, who currently face potential food shortages.
"Forecasting precipitation variability from year to year is difficult, and research on the links between global change and precipitation in specific regions is ongoing so that more accurate projections of future precipitation can be developed," said Williams, first author and postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Geography.
Warming of the Indian Ocean, which causes decreased rainfall in eastern Africa, is linked to global warming. These new projections of continued drought contradict scenarios previously projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change which predict increased rainfall in Eastern Africa.
This new research supports efforts by the USGS and the U.S. Agency for International Development to identify areas of potential drought and famine in order to target food aid and help inform agricultural development, environmental conservation, and water resources planning.
"Global temperatures are predicted to continue increasing, and we anticipate that average precipitation totals in Kenya and Ethiopia will continue decreasing or remain below the historical average," said co-author Chris Funk, USGS scientist. "The decreased rainfall in Eastern Africa is most pronounced in the March to June season, when substantial rainfall usually occurs. Although drought is one reason for food shortages, it is exacerbated by stagnating agricultural development and continued population growth."
Present temps below -
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/psu_sst_anom.gif
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Dave,Derby