Here is some food for thought for the summer.
Looking at the stats for Spring this year will be the sunniest on record. If we look at rainfall this Spring is likely to be the 6th driest on record for the EWP series. Also likely to be the 6th warmest Spring on record for the CET series.
I have looked at the top 20 Springs for sun, rain and warmth since 1929 (I picked that year because the sunshine data only goes back to 1929).
We see that there are six years since 1929 which all fell into the top 20 for sun, rain and warmth. A further 8 matched two of the three parameters (4 matching sun and rain, 3 matching sun and temperature and 1 matching rain and temperature.
If we look at the summer CET for those years we find that for years with two matches the CET is generally close to average, although August looks very poor (the data is skewed slightly by having one very warm year - 1995 which has the record August CET).
If we look at the summer CET for those years with 3 matches we see a similar picture for June and July, generally around average. However, August looks better with three very warm years (but that is still only 50% of the sample).
So my gut feel is that we should not expect a particular warm summer this year. Maybe August is the best chance of a warm month. But otherwise the odds are on a fairly average and perhaps rather boring summer. Of course the weather was bound to change as the lockdown is lifted!
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