A rough estimate using raw GFS numbers keeps the CET near where it is now to 27th, then knocks close to half a degree off during the final four days for a finish at about 6.3°C.
Difficult to gauge how bias will affect this. So far during this very clear spell of weather, GFS has been well-underestimating daytime maximums in the CET region but most of the nights have been at least little below what its numbers.
It looks breezier for the CET region during the weekend, which may reduce or remove the overnight bias, but winds may fall light again for the final two days of the month, bringing that back into play.
There's also the post-month adjustment to factor in, which is more often down than up.
So, could be that 6.3°C is a reasonable expectation after all. About 3/4 of a degree below my guesstimate for this month - I made the mistake of giving CFSv2 a tiny bit of influence over my decision; it showed a very mild pattern for the final week, which swayed me from going for a CET very close to the 1981-2010 average .
Ah well, I'm glad of the sunny weather, regardless .
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T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
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