Sounds like somethnig else that may or may not be a 'done deal' by October 31st 🙂 But at least we know that the October CET will be finalised by that date, though no doubt some people might wish for an extension into November!
Ha yes!
An even bigger deal for me as it's my Birthday too .
Final CET approximation update: Low 10s using the GFS 12z. It has a very mild Saturday having adjusted the Fri-Sat low a long way northward, but is seriously chilly for the time of year thereafter.
ECM 12z is much cooler for Sat (low tracks as far south as the GFS 06z had it going) but not quite as chilly Wed 30th & markedly milder eve of 31st due to having suddenly decided to make the trough out west of the UK much larger (looks a bit dodgy to me, if I'm honest!). So, probably a similar final CET estimate overall if I had the time to do one (not as easy as with GFS; I don't have raw data for ECM!).
If it does pan out that way, then my extraordinary change of fortune from the first half of the year will continue. Wouldn't it be funny if I managed one of the lowest half-year cumulative errors on record, only to not finish very high up the table due to the shocking first half .
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On