I've been without my usual internet for a week but have kept an eye on things via mobile connections where I can.
Woah - is that an auto-save feature I see flashing up every time I pause...?
So, those colder northerly incursions... they've done the 'typical thing' and been put back to the early stages of next month instead, allowing the March CET to finish near 8*C by the looks of things.
Could still have been cooler though for the CET zone; down here there's been a run of sub-zero minimums but it's been less cold for central parts due to more of a breeze. Seems good luck is not something I have much of a relationship these days! The things I've been through regarding my internet...! Crazy.
Anyway. April's looking like another tricky month to pin down, with some unusually strong blocking scenarios (even for the time of year) on the cards, driving exceptional warmth into the Arctic and a lot of cold air out of it, but this pattern greatly contradicting the typical weak El Nino response of warm continental flows occasionally destabilised by Atlantic troughs.
Which is to say, a sudden large flip in temps is probable at some point (see the final frames of the GFS 12z for an idea of how this may look), but how far into the month this happens is anyone's guess. Consequences for the CET are massive.
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[email protected] https://twitter.com/peacockreports 2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On