This thread is for all comments, discussion and analysis of temperatures in the UK during March, with particular emphasis on the Central England Temperature (CET), for the simple reason that it is the longest running temperature series in the world with over 360 years of data. But you can comment on any interesting temperature statistics or data from across the UK, including your own back yard.
February was a very mild month after a very cold start. March is looking somewhat cooler after a very mild start
For those taking part in the competition all CET predictions for March should be sent directly to me via the forum private message system. Do not post them directly into the thread.
The deadline for predictions this month is 2359 on Sunday evening (3 March).
Now on to some data for March:
Historic CET summary for March
1971-2000 6.3C (30 years)
1981-2010 6.6C (30 years)
1999-2018 6.6C (last 20 years)
Last March was cold with 4.9C largely to the Beast from the East. The previous March was very mild at 8.7C.
Here is a chart of the March CET for all years since 1961:
Direct link to larger version of the chart
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Latest model output - 12z 1 March
GFS (12z) - turning cooler after a mild start
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?geoid=49069&model=gfs&var=2&run=12&lid=ENS&bw=
GEM (12z) - similar to GFS
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=gem&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=ENS&bw=
Multi Op - fairly good agreement on a sine wave pattern indicating unsettled Atlantic dominated conditions
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/show_diagrams.php?model=multi&var=2&geoid=49069&lid=OP&bw=
The ECM ENS T2m temperatures for De Bilt show a very consistent signal throughout. More scatter of course in the longer range but the mean is quite consistent for the whole run after the first three days
http://cdn.knmi.nl/knmi/map/page/weer/waarschuwingen_verwachtingen/ensemble/detail/ensemble-verwachtingen-detail10.png
Met Office contingency planners outlook
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-mam-v2.pdf
Shows a signal for higher than average probability of above average temperatures for the Spring
Temperature analogues
In general, recent years with a very warm February have also been followed by a warm or very warm March.
If we look at January and February we see that the best matches for the year are 2017, 2011 and 1961. March 2017 was very warm whereas March 2011 was close to average. March 1961 was very warm.
So the analogues would suggest the likelihood of an above average month with the possibility of a very warm month again.
First look at March temperature tracker
After a very mild start temperatures could then turn much cooler. Even so by the middle of the month we could still be about 1C above average.
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Edited by moderator
24 April 2019 05:47:32
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