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KevBrads1
03 February 2019 10:44:30


 


Looks like accuweather is not having that a brilliant winter forecast again. Yes it has been mild at times but that graphic is just bizarre. How can you get a scenario like that unless a main low pressure sits to the west of Ireland and there are low pressures moving up the eastern flank of the parent low bringing gales to western areas that then swing out back into the Atlantic? Note the parts of Scotland under dry spells.


"The second half of the season — including January and February — is predicted to be even busier, with Northern Ireland, southwestern Scotland, northwestern England and Wales most likely to be hit."   Well January has been relatively quiet. 


"Unlike last year, prolonged dry periods are not anticipated so regions which are coping with drought conditions, such as southern England, may recover." Actually January has been drier than average comfortably, driest January since 2006 by the looks of it and add on dry week of last December. 


IMO, I think their winter forecasts are pretty poor overall.


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
jhall
03 February 2019 21:50:07

Accuweather also provide the daily forecasts in my morning paper, and those are pretty atrocious too.


Cranleigh, Surrey
KevBrads1
04 February 2019 06:25:26

Manchester Winter Index 


Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 


2013-14: 7


1988-89: 20


2006-07: 21


1997-98: 25


1974-75: 26


1989-90: 26


2015-16: 28


1973-74: 30


1987-88: 37


2007-08: 37


2016-17: 37


1991-92: 40


1975-76: 41


1999-00: 42


1992-93: 43


2002-03: 44


1994-95: 45


1998-99: 47


2004-05: 47


2011-12: 47


2018-19: 48 (up to 3rd Feb)


2001-02: 50


2003-04: 50


2005-06: 59


1979-80: 66


1996-97: 72


2000-01: 77


1993-94: 78


1983-84: 82


2014-15: 82


1982-83: 85


1977-78: 90


1980-81: 90


2017-18: 93


1986-87: 100


2012-13: 102


2008-09: 105


2010-11: 119


1990-91: 126


1995-96: 135


1984-85: 140


1976-77: 141


1981-82: 149


1985-86: 159


2009-10: 197


1978-79: 262


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Gray-Wolf
04 February 2019 11:51:41

Sadly , since my Oct punt we received a paper bringing into doubt any connection that the MetO saw between low solar and Northern blocking in the Atlantic.


The paper found any 'correlation' to be a 'mirage' ( their word).


As such i am surprised at the amount of HP interference we have already encountered this winter so far?


Not to say I'm bothered as our river is still mid 'flood alleviation' works reducing its channel and so increasing the likelihood for flooding over any big rains we might encounter!


 


 


Koyaanisqatsi
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Gavin D
15 February 2019 13:24:24
It's the warmest day of the year so far with 16.3c in Rhyl
Gavin D
16 February 2019 17:53:17

Could this be the winter when we finally hit the magical 20c?


 


Beeb already saying 18c could be hit next weekend



5757.thumb.png.8528436321713fb9648a8913e61ae34e.png


fairweather
27 February 2019 11:10:55

...... or 21C even..


S.Essex, 42m ASL
KevBrads1
28 February 2019 20:09:16

Manchester Winter Index 


Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 


2013-14: 7


1988-89: 20


2006-07: 21


1997-98: 25


1974-75: 26


1989-90: 26


2015-16: 28


1973-74: 30


1987-88: 37


2007-08: 37


2016-17: 37


1991-92: 40


1975-76: 41


1999-00: 42


1992-93: 43


2002-03: 44


1994-95: 45


2018-19: 45 


1998-99: 47


2004-05: 47


2011-12: 47


2001-02: 50


2003-04: 50


2005-06: 59


1979-80: 66


1996-97: 72


2000-01: 77


1993-94: 78


1983-84: 82


2014-15: 82


1982-83: 85


1977-78: 90


1980-81: 90


2017-18: 93


1986-87: 100


2012-13: 102


2008-09: 105


2010-11: 119


1990-91: 126


1995-96: 135


1984-85: 140


1976-77: 141


1981-82: 149


1985-86: 159


2009-10: 197


1978-79: 262


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Gavin D
01 March 2019 15:08:42
Record breaking February, mild winter

"No one could have missed that February was record breaking. Daily maximum temperatures have been the highest on record (dating back to 1910), averaging out at 10.0C, ahead of the 9.8C recorded in 1998. In total 21 locations in the Met Office observing network broke previous national (England, Scotland, Wales) records, some of these on multiple days. On 26 February, the previous UK record (19.7 at Greenwich on 13th February 1998) was broken as far north as Rochdale, Greater Manchester (20.4 C) and Myerscough, Lancashire (19.8 C).

Looking at winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) the season was warm and dry for the country as a whole, but not record breaking. There were some regional differences, for example it was the 23rd driest for the UK but the 4th driest for east Scotland and the driest since 1964, while it was the 6th sunniest for the UK but the 2nd sunniest for E. Anglia, and east and north east England."

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/february-and-winter-statistics 
Brian Gaze
01 March 2019 15:40:34

Record breaking February, mild winter


Looking at winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) the season was warm and dry for the country as a whole, but not record breaking. There were some regional differences, for example it was the 23rd driest for the UK but the 4th driest for east Scotland and the driest since 1964, while it was the 6th sunniest for the UK but the 2nd sunniest for E. Anglia, and east and north east England."

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/press-office/news/weather-and-climate/2019/february-and-winter-statistics


Originally Posted by: Gavin D 


Interesting to see them describe winter as "warm" rather than "mild".


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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