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Brian Gaze
16 January 2019 21:38:07

This evening's 12z runs look quite promising for cold weather fans. Let's see if the trend continues tomorrow.


Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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"I'm not socialist, I know that. I don't believe in sharing my money." - Gary Numan
doctormog
16 January 2019 21:42:06


This evening's 12z runs look quite promising for cold weather fans. Let's see if the trend continues tomorrow.


Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze 


It will be encouraging if we see some consistency from the 18z GFS data and then as you say a good set of 00z runs, which have been rare recently. On the subject of the 18z GFS and JFF 



White Meadows
16 January 2019 21:43:52
Gooner
16 January 2019 22:16:58

Great 18z so far 


Snow for many 



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


doctormog
16 January 2019 22:17:05
Gooner
16 January 2019 22:20:40

Lovely 




Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Sasa
  • Sasa
  • Advanced Member
16 January 2019 22:23:29
GFS looks very consistent so far (T168) hopefully it can maintain that overnight, but looks very promising. I think synoptics wise this is the closest we have been to getting snow fest this winter.
Kingston Upon Thames
Gooner
16 January 2019 22:24:00

Strength of the wind= blizzards in places where snow falls



Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Russwirral
16 January 2019 22:24:05
Very snowy t120... however the pace of change per run is worrying. I think by tomorrow we will be heading towards a fast slider.. followed by HP over the UK.

This would bring the charts in line with the scenario this winter has been dominated by.
kmoorman
16 January 2019 22:26:19
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_153_1.png 

Broadly the same pattern as the previous run.


 


Yep, we still get the easterly over the sinking low. 


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
doctormog
16 January 2019 22:28:18

Very snowy t120... however the pace of change per run is worrying. I think by tomorrow we will be heading towards a fast slider.. followed by HP over the UK.

This would bring the charts in line with the scenario this winter has been dominated by.

Originally Posted by: Russwirral 


The GFS shows mostly rain at 120hr. It’s a little better a day or two later. Standard easterly muck 


kmoorman
16 January 2019 22:30:17

Impressive similarity between the 12Z and 18Z at 198 / 204 hours. 



Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Russwirral
16 January 2019 22:31:48


 


The GFS shows mostly rain at 120hr. It’s a little better a day or two later. Standard easterly muck 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


Youre right.. i miss read the screen. 147 onwards. Gfs shows alot of snow about. Very mixed atmosphere with cold uppers marginal. Alot of changes to be made til then. But i reckon they will move back to the flavour for this winter. HP / dry / tame.


kmoorman
16 January 2019 22:32:26


 


The GFS shows mostly rain at 120hr. It’s a little better a day or two later. Standard easterly muck 


Originally Posted by: doctormog 


 


All snow by 132hrs though. 


Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Gooner
16 January 2019 22:37:08

JMA also a belter this evening 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


White Meadows
16 January 2019 22:46:45

Some fun on tonight’s pub run but short lived. Perhaps FI will throw out another giggle...


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref


🤮🤮🤮

kmoorman
16 January 2019 23:01:05


JMA also a belter this evening 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


 


You're not wrong:  -12C HPA air arrives


 



 


Followed by a WALL of precipitation - into frigid air




Home: Durrington, Worthing, West Sussex. (16 ASL)
Work: Canary Wharf, London
Follow me on Twitter @kmoorman1968
Heavy Weather 2013
16 January 2019 23:01:33


Some fun on tonight’s pub run but short lived. Perhaps FI will throw out another giggle...


 


http://www.wetterzentrale.de/de/topkarten.php?map=1&model=gfs&var=1&run=18&time=288&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref


🤮🤮🤮


Originally Posted by: White Meadows 


With this and Brexit, we are all


going to lose our sanity lol.


Joking aside, I think just a variation in theme. Happy with that run tonight


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
Heavy Weather 2013
16 January 2019 23:02:38


 


 


You're not wrong:  -12C HPA air arrives


 



 


Followed by a WALL of precipitation - into frigid air




Originally Posted by: kmoorman 


JMA has always been my most trusted model 🤣


Mark
Beckton, E London
Less than 500m from the end of London City Airport runway.
BJBlake
16 January 2019 23:18:08

Pub's crowded tonight..that's a good sign - last orders, my round! Here's to a Stella 00z 


Brecklands, South Norfolk 28m ASL
tallyho_83
16 January 2019 23:30:07


Pub's crowded tonight..that's a good sign - last orders, my round! Here's to a Stella 00z 


Originally Posted by: BJBlake 


I hate to say it but i have notice a trend and that's the 00z runs always seem to be milder GFS especially and then they improve and upgrade to cold throughout the day and then go back to square one when the 00z come out!


Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


tallyho_83
16 January 2019 23:32:27


Strength of the wind= blizzards in places where snow falls



Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Looks quite bone dry? One would have thought there would be heavy and drifting snow and yes blizzards to the south and north sea or English channel effect snow' but looks dry! Maybe snowflakes in the wind with (as it stands) 80 - 90% cloud cover in the south??


 




Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com


fairweather
16 January 2019 23:58:25

Right. Looking pretty good. GFS ensembles now consistent and tight for next 8 days with mean generally in range -3C to -7C and ending up at about -6C before the big uncertainty arrives but even from then on the op was a massive mild outlier and the majority are still cold. It would be good to see tomorrow morning's 0z ensembles be similar or better as we don't want a repeat of today's.


S.Essex, 42m ASL
Gooner
17 January 2019 05:57:37

Great start to the day from GFS 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Gooner
17 January 2019 05:59:09


 


Looks quite bone dry? One would have thought there would be heavy and drifting snow and yes blizzards to the south and north sea or English channel effect snow' but looks dry! Maybe snowflakes in the wind with (as it stands) 80 - 90% cloud cover in the south??


 




Originally Posted by: tallyho_83 


Wont be picked up at his range Tally ( ppn ) 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


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