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Gavin D
11 December 2018 11:20:05

December met office Ensemble-mean maps continues to suggest northern blocking over winter


2cat_20181201_mslp_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.fed08e79400369d47de6551508e266b5.png2cat_20181201_t850_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.c82f491e2e4a7ebc7efdfe6599ac951e.png2cat_20181201_temp2m_months24_global_deter_public.thumb.png.3c9a1a5c14c3de24d0006d4e28bb7cba.png

roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
14 December 2018 12:15:41

Am surprised that the met office 3 month outlook didn't receive a very enthusiastic  response.


We have got used to a procession of NAO + winters.


The Meto  outlook is not saying that we are in for a severe winter but it opts for an overall NAO -.


It suggests the highest chances of impacts from cold weather will be later in the winter presumably February.


Looking at the indicators that suggest NAO - we have


1.Moderate ENSO increasing the likelihood of NAO -in late winter.


2.Polar vortex weaker than normal in late winter


3.Stratospheric events increasing  chance of colder conditions later on.


4.Solar minimum which increases likelihood of a weak stratospheric circulation and cold weather weather alter in winter


Indicators that suggest NAO+ we have


1.QBO in westerly phase ,ncreasing likelihood of NAO +Ve


2.Pattern of SST anomalies increases the chance of NAO + conditions in early winter.


 


Overall it seems a to me there are enough NAO - signals to deliver at least  a couple of cold spells of cold and snow.


 


 

seringador
21 December 2018 19:28:57

If the SSW propagate downward, we could see something after 10/15th of january, thus they are not all very impactful on sensible weather but if the troposphere and stratosphere will be primed for proficient "communication", or "coupled" this season, we could see this happening and a cold 2nd half of January could be on the charts, and even through out February...


Extremes
Max Temp: 40.2ºC (03.08.2018)
Min Temp: -1.1ºC ( 03.01.2021)
Porto 86m and Campeã 820m (Marão 1414m)
@planoclima
nsrobins
22 December 2018 08:59:03


If the SSW propagate downward, we could see something after 10/15th of january, thus they are not all very impactful on sensible weather but if the troposphere and stratosphere will be primed for proficient "communication", or "coupled" this season, we could see this happening and a cold 2nd half of January could be on the charts, and even through out February...


Originally Posted by: seringador 


Source?


Neil
Fareham, Hampshire 28m ASL (near estuary)
Stormchaser, Member TORRO
roger63
  • roger63
  • Advanced Member Topic Starter
22 December 2018 14:25:53

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf


Am surprised that this encouraging METO forecast for Jan-March has not recieved more attention.

some faraway beach
22 December 2018 23:48:18
It should do, shouldn't it? The list of feedbacks currently pointing towards a negative NAO is a long one.
2 miles west of Taunton, 32 m asl, where "milder air moving in from the west" becomes SNOWMAGEDDON.
Well, two or three times a decade it does, anyway.
Stolen Snowman
01 January 2019 15:08:11

As expected it looks like my winter forecast has gone bust! At least it stayed on track for most of December.


Bang goes the theory - or maybe the deep cold will eventually arrive, just not as soon - time will tell.


Anyway Happy New Year to everyone on here - here’s to another year of reading some great and interesting posts.


Statistics prove that the period just after records began witnessed some of the most extreme weather ever recorded. Records were being broken on a frequency that has not been repeated since.
Posting live from a pub somewhere in Burton upon Trent
Gary L
02 January 2019 10:32:05


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf


Am surprised that this encouraging METO forecast for Jan-March has not recieved more attention.


Originally Posted by: roger63 


Yes, it is quite a strong signal for cold, but more particularly Feb-March. January the probabilities look quite balanced actually.

seringador
02 January 2019 12:21:31


 


Source?


Originally Posted by: nsrobins 


Source of what? the SSW or the monitoring charts or analyses?


SSW  occouring


http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/ 


Monitoring 


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat-trop/gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_MEAN_ALL_NH_2018.png


Analyses


 this winter teleconnection and sometimes when the QBO is switching phase for a westerly one (positive) a possible SSW occours and the Polar Vortex weakens and divide propagating to the troposphere with consquences such has a PV split. At this moment it could well be a major SSW event taht could lead to a rising prussure between the North Greenland or Scandy in 15-20 days time.


Extremes
Max Temp: 40.2ºC (03.08.2018)
Min Temp: -1.1ºC ( 03.01.2021)
Porto 86m and Campeã 820m (Marão 1414m)
@planoclima
DPower
03 January 2019 23:01:03

The gph 10mb profile could not look any better for the UK once it propagates down. The 30 mb profile looks better with every run. Middle of last Feb 10 days prior to beast I said I would not be surprised to see synoptics showing -15c -16c 850 temps showing up and 12 days later they did. 


This time around  the strat profile looks even better and longer lasting. Patience is the key here. There still does not appear to be much evidence in the h500 charts of any ssw downwelling and it may be another 7 to 10 days before we see a consistent trop response to the ssw with a very -AO and abundant high latitude blocking.

Gooner
06 January 2019 20:31:34


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/public-sector/forecast-temp-jfm-v1.pdf


Am surprised that this encouraging METO forecast for Jan-March has not recieved more attention.


Originally Posted by: roger63 


Thought Id bring this back to the top 


Remember anything after T120 is really Just For Fun



Marcus
Banbury
North Oxfordshire
378 feet A S L


Stolen Snowman
06 January 2019 21:52:52


 


Thought Id bring this back to the top 


Originally Posted by: Gooner 


Always a conundrum with these sorts of things when we all know it’s impossible to forecast the weather with any certainty beyond about 5 days. This of course could mean wintery weather is just around the corner but the models have yet to pick up on it....


Then again.... it might not.


Statistics prove that the period just after records began witnessed some of the most extreme weather ever recorded. Records were being broken on a frequency that has not been repeated since.
Posting live from a pub somewhere in Burton upon Trent
Gavin D
07 January 2019 10:44:24

The UK and Ireland is one of the warmest parts of Europe this morning


temp_eur2.thumb.png.638230e1546f2c64a478998d32607ae5.png

Saint Snow
07 January 2019 12:33:17

I'm not moaning (else I'd have used that thread!) but after temps dipped to -3c one night last week, I expected there to be further frosty nights/mornings. But it's not developed that way, and I don't think it's got lower than +2c since. We even had drizzle this morning.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
KevBrads1
13 January 2019 08:54:54

Manchester Winter Index 


Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 


2013-14: 7


2018-19: 11 (up to 12th Jan)


1988-89: 20


2006-07: 21


1997-98: 25


1974-75: 26


1989-90: 26


2015-16: 28


1973-74: 30


1987-88: 37


2007-08: 37


2016-17: 37


1991-92: 40


1975-76: 41


1999-00: 42


1992-93: 43


2002-03: 44


1994-95: 45


1998-99: 47


2004-05: 47


2001-02: 50


2003-04: 50


2005-06: 59


1979-80: 66


1996-97: 72


2000-01: 77


1993-94: 78


1983-84: 82


2014-15: 82


1982-83: 85


1977-78: 90


1980-81: 90


2017-18: 93


1986-87: 100


2012-13: 102


2008-09: 105


2010-11: 119


1990-91: 126


1995-96: 135


1984-85: 140


1976-77: 141


1981-82: 149


1985-86: 159


2009-10: 197


1978-79: 262


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
johncs2016
13 January 2019 09:40:07


Manchester Winter Index 


Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 


2013-14: 7


2018-19: 11 (up to 12th Jan)


1988-89: 20


2006-07: 21


1997-98: 25


1974-75: 26


1989-90: 26


2015-16: 28


1973-74: 30


1987-88: 37


2007-08: 37


2016-17: 37


1991-92: 40


1975-76: 41


1999-00: 42


1992-93: 43


2002-03: 44


1994-95: 45


1998-99: 47


2004-05: 47


2001-02: 50


2003-04: 50


2005-06: 59


1979-80: 66


1996-97: 72


2000-01: 77


1993-94: 78


1983-84: 82


2014-15: 82


1982-83: 85


1977-78: 90


1980-81: 90


2017-18: 93


1986-87: 100


2012-13: 102


2008-09: 105


2010-11: 119


1990-91: 126


1995-96: 135


1984-85: 140


1976-77: 141


1981-82: 149


1985-86: 159


2009-10: 197


1978-79: 262


Originally Posted by: KevBrads1 


Using the same formula as above with an amendment so that I am dealing with the number of official air frosts instead of the number of days where the minimum temperature is at or below 0°C, the Edinburgh Index for the winter of 2018/19 as at midnight going into Sunday 13 January 2019 was 15.4 at Edinburgh Gogarbank and 14.9 at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh.


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
howham
13 January 2019 18:11:53
Possibly some.snow here overnight. Eyes to lampposts...
Gavin D
15 January 2019 09:50:22

The met office have issued a level 2 cold weather alert


Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness


Issued at: 08:20 on Tue 15 Jan 2019


There is an 80% probability of severe cold weather between 0600 on Friday 18 Jan and 0600 on Monday 21 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.


 Colder conditions becoming established across the country from Wednesday as a cold front clears southeast, with strong northwesterly winds following. Wintry showers spreading south overnight Wednesday and into Thursday giving a slight snow cover in places, mainly across northern hills, with some icy patches also likely. Winds then fall light overnight Thursday into Friday, with clear spells allowing a widespread frost to develop across the country. Atlantic fronts then try to push in from the west during Friday and Saturday with outbreaks of rain, preceded by some sleet and hill snow, likely to affect SW England and perhaps parts of central southern England, the West Midlands, and northwest England. However, further east remaining cold and dry.


Sunday should see largely dry but cold conditions across most areas, but a further band of rain, sleet or snow may edge into the far northwest later. There is currently significant uncertainty regarding the eastward extent of the precipitation on Friday and Saturday, but any snowfall accumulations look to be small and mostly confined to hills at the present time. There is higher confidence that many northern, central and eastern areas will remain largely dry but cold through the weekend. Trigger criteria are expected to be met for temperatures for northern, central, and eastern regions, with southern areas likely to remain above Alert thresholds for this period. This Alert may be updated later in the week when more certainty emerges in the precipitation detail for the weekend.


An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Gavin D
18 January 2019 09:16:03

Amber level 3 cold weather alert issued for North East & North West England.


Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action


Issued at: 08:54 on Fri 18 Jan 2019


There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather between 0600 on Friday 18 Jan and 0900 on Wednesday 23 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.


Cold for many, and remaining sufficiently cold across the northeast and northwest for a level 3 alert, with overnight frosts expected. There is also the potential for some hill snow, mainly Friday and Sunday, and perhaps briefly to lower levels in the north. However temperatures expected to be slightly less cold than recent days in the south, reducing chances of thresholds being reached here. Despite this, further cold weather is expected to return to these parts during the coming week. There is also the potential for a band of heavy rain and snow to move southeastwards across the country overnight Monday and early Tuesday. However confidence in the timing, and the extent of any snowfall remains very low. This alert is likely to be updated Monday morning.


An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert


 


London, South East & South West England remain Green which means no cold weather alert is in operation here


 

Gavin D
21 January 2019 08:58:58

Updated cold weather alert


Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action


Issued at: 08:41 on Mon 21 Jan 2019


There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather, icy conditions and mostly hill snow between 0900 on Monday 21 Jan and 0900 on Friday 25 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.


This alert extends the duration of the active alert, issued on Friday 18 January and supersedes it. All regional alert levels remain unchanged, with the exception of Southeast England which is now upgraded from Level 1 (No Alert) to Level 2 (Yellow). The main hazards in this alert period are likely to be widespread ice on Monday night into Tuesday morning, as well as the ongoing low temperatures. While some snow is expected - including sporadic slight falls to low levels - amounts are only likely to be appreciable on high ground, mainly in the northwest. There is some uncertainty in the timing of relieving less cold conditions from the west late this working week.


The present most likely scenario is for a less cold blip of one or two days' duration from Friday. This should come before a resumption of widespread cold to end the coming weekend and probably beyond.


An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

Gavin D
27 January 2019 09:12:43

Gavin D
27 January 2019 10:27:06

Solar Cycles
27 January 2019 10:33:31




Originally Posted by: Gavin D 

NetWeathers servers will be in meltdown mode now. 😂😂😂 


 


 

KevBrads1
28 January 2019 08:24:31

Manchester Winter Index 


Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 


2013-14: 7


1988-89: 20


2006-07: 21


2018-19: 22 (up to 27th Jan)


1997-98: 25


1974-75: 26


1989-90: 26


2015-16: 28


1973-74: 30


1987-88: 37


2007-08: 37


2016-17: 37


1991-92: 40


1975-76: 41


1999-00: 42


1992-93: 43


2002-03: 44


1994-95: 45


1998-99: 47


2004-05: 47


2001-02: 50


2003-04: 50


2005-06: 59


1979-80: 66


1996-97: 72


2000-01: 77


1993-94: 78


1983-84: 82


2014-15: 82


1982-83: 85


1977-78: 90


1980-81: 90


2017-18: 93


1986-87: 100


2012-13: 102


2008-09: 105


2010-11: 119


1990-91: 126


1995-96: 135


1984-85: 140


1976-77: 141


1981-82: 149


1985-86: 159


2009-10: 197


1978-79: 262


MANCHESTER SUMMER INDEX for 2021: 238
Timelapses, old weather forecasts and natural phenomena videos can be seen on this site
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgrSD1BwFz2feWDTydhpEhQ/playlists
Gavin D
28 January 2019 09:05:07

Level 3 cold weather alert issued for north-east & north-west England + Yorkshire and the Humber


Current alert level: Level 3 - Cold Weather Action


Issued at: 08:54 on Mon 28 Jan 2019


There is a 90% probability of severe cold weather/icy conditions/heavy snow between 0900 on Monday 28 Jan and 0900 on Friday 01 Feb in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.


Cold weather is expected to continue to affect the country through the coming week with generally northwesterly winds, with the risk highest across the north of the country. Monday and much of Tuesday will be dry and cold for much of the country away from coasts where some showers are likely which could turn wintry and where icy patches are most likely.


A band of rain crossing eastwards across the country later Tuesday and into Wednesday will turn to snow at times to all levels with the some of the greatest amounts across the higher ground of the south and southeast of the UK. The cold conditions are expected to continue through the rest of the week, with bands of rain turning to snow through Thursday and into Friday, although confidence in timing and amounts beyond Wednesday is low at this stage.


An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map


https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

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