I didn't really have much of a chance to add my tuppence worth here when this thread was at its most active just before Christmas as I was on my Christmas break in the Scottish Borders at that time. However, I will say what I think will happen in the year ahead. Just like the last time though, this will just be a complete guess on my part, although I am hoping that I can still do better at getting these predictions right than I did last year.
Anyway, my predictions for this upcoming final year of the 2010's decade are as follows:
JANUARY:
What happens during the latter part of this month in particular, will depend largely on what the tropospheric effects are (if any) from the currently ongoing SSW event. Until then, the month will start off with the same Barlett High in place which we have just now, and this will be continuing to feed in really mild air from the Canaries at that time although there might be some patchy frost at times if the high pressure drifts far enough north.
As we go further into January, this area of high pressure will drift away to our east with low pressure setting up to west. This will result in the north and west of the country becoming more unsettled but still mild with SE England having the best chance of being drier with patchy frost. In the end, northern blocking will develop, but we will end up being on the mild side of that so whilst the eastern seaboard of the USA gets the benefit from that with some really cold temperatures, we will remain in a mild to very mild SW air mass with most of the rain again, being in the NW quarter of the UK.
FEBRUARY:
Northern blocking remains in situ which continues to brace the eastern seaboard of America with some severe winter weather, but our mild borefest goes on with the Barlett High remaining in place over the UK. In the end, that will result in this winter going down as one of the mildest on record here in the UK and whilst most of the rain continues to fall acoss NW Britain, SEPA who had already stated in earlier reports that what happens during this winter could be critical in terms of how groundwater levels in the east of Scotland recover from last summers droughts, now become really concerned about the fact that this much needed winter rainfall in the east of Scotland just hasn't happened and so in response to that, their water scarcity warning level is raised from its current low level, to moderate or high.
MARCH:
The Barlett High drifts towards Scandinavia and starts to feed in more of an easterly wind, but these easterlies are originating from the Mediterranean and are not all that cold. Nevertheless, there is a lot of low cloud being brought onto the east coast by those winds and the first east coast haar of the spring, which keeps the east coast a bit cooler than further inland.
APRIL:
Another very dry month here in Scotland, but wetter in the south as high pressure to the north continues to feed in easterly winds. This results in the west of Scotland getting some pleasant weather whilst the east coast is plagued by more low cloud and haar, along with cooler temperatures. Meanwhile, low pressure is trying to push up from the south and that brings some rain at times, along with some April showers across the south of the UK.
MAY:
Easterly winds continue to bring low cloud and haar onto the east coast for a while along with cooler temperatures, whilst the west of Scotland enjoys some decent warm and sunny weather with the south of England remaining more unsettled. Eventually though, the blocking high to our north slips a bit further south into Europe, but this starts to feed in much warmer southerly winds with SE England seeing its first Spanish plume of the season.
JUNE:
High pressure builds right across the whole of the UK for a while, and brings a real taste of summer. However, this results in SEPA now being so concerned about the effects from this in addition to the knock-on effects up until then from the previous year, that widespread hose-pipe bans are now introduced across Edinburgh and the rest of SE Scotland as a result.
JULY:
Our area of high pressure slowly slips away, and this results in a succession of thundery troughs being stuck across the east of the UK. This results in widespread thunderstorms with Edinburgh recording its wettest July on record which is enough for all hose-pipe bans to be immediately lifted once again.
AUGUST:
The Azores High ridges in close enough to the south of England to dry things out there, but Atlantic weather systems moving in from the west around the top of that high pressure continue to keep Scotland quite a lot wetter and more unsettled.
SEPTEMBER:
Scotland gets the sort of weather which it should have been getting during August as high pressure builds in across the UK. However, that area of high pressure then slips away by the end of the month, resulting in the weather becoming more unsettled once again.
OCTOBER:
Unsettled and often stormy, with frequent low pressure systems bringing plenty of rain to most parts of the UK.
NOVEMBER:
The unsettled theme continues, but with a few colder snaps in between due to the odd northerly incursion on the back end of these weather systems as they clear away to our east. This in turn is enough for showers to turn increasingly wintry, especially over the hills at first with snow down to lower levels by the end of month.
DECEMBER:
The 2010s decade ends on a changeable note with mild, wet and windy weather at times interspersed with some cold zonality which results in showers on a returning polar maritime air mass turning to sleet of snow at times, even down to lower levels on the odd occasion.
Edited by user
28 December 2018 18:31:25
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Reason: typos
The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.