For a bit of fun I’ve had a go at this for the last few years in homage to Brian’s winter forecast.
Of course with a totally amateur forecast, like a stopped clock, it still occasionally can be accurate. But here goes...
What surprises me this year is the lack of discussion surrounding the change in the AMO. Last year I did a quick and dirty analysis of previous years’ unsmoothed data and was surprised to find that previous notably cold winters occurred when there was a switch to a negative index in the preceding summer. Therefore I made the easy call of saying no prolonged big freeze last year.
However this summer I believe there has been a switch to a negative AMO - so it’s time to give the theory a test! So the Stolen Snowman winter 2018/19 forecast (for the UK Midlands) is as follows;
December - slightly above average.
The month will start mild and wet with an Atlantic influence. It will turn more settled and frosty before stormy weather returns mid month.
It will slowly become more settled and by the Christmas period a change to colder conditions will start as high pressure builds over Scandinavia. A significant snow event is likely between Christmas and New Year.
January - below average
The month will start on a cold note with frosty and settled conditions. During the first week there will be a change to milder conditions before high pressure builds again to the north of the UK.
During mid to late month winds will have a more easterly contingent dragging down temperatures. In the second half of the month as the high retrogresses into the Atlantic another bout of heavy snow and bitterly cold temperatures will establish.
February - below average.
The month starts on a very cold note as snow and frosty periods affect the country. A settled spell then develops giving rise to some very severe frosts and very cold overnight temperatures under clear skies.
By the second third of the month there will be indications of a warm up as the Atlantic briefly starts to exert an influence, leading to a gradual thaw. However this will be short lived as towards the end of the month temperatures will be trending cold again.
Worth a punt and all for fun! Let’s see how it pans out.
Edited by user
01 December 2018 13:04:44
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Reason: Spelling and clarification
Statistics prove that the period just after records began witnessed some of the most extreme weather ever recorded. Records were being broken on a frequency that has not been repeated since.
Posting live from a pub somewhere in Burton upon Trent