Welcome Guest! To enable all features please Login. New Registrations are disabled.

Notification

Icon
Error

6 Pages«<23456>
Options
Go to last post Go to first unread
Offline ARTzeman  
#61 Posted : 15 January 2022 12:20:43(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         5.8c        Anomaly       2.3c. provisional to 14th

Metcheck                      4.75c      Anomaly        0.60c

Netweather                   5.43c      Anomaly        1.24c

Peasedown St John       5.05c     Anomaly         0.4c   

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Stormchaser  
#62 Posted : 15 January 2022 20:41:20(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,076
Man
Location: West Hants

It appears we're headed for a near-average month overall, unless there's a big shift toward a mild westerly regime or sustained cold northerly/easterly one. The latter featured in the GFS 06z but seems a long shot. The former is hinted at by the ECM 12z as of +10 days from now, but it's not clear cut whether it would actually head down that path. In any case, it's the first deterministic run of the past 4 or 5 days to even suggest such a thing!

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1482450903349317632

I wonder just how much of a discrepancy there now is between the provisional and actual CET. Central England has experienced a wide area of lingering fog for a few days now, with the Pershore area recording subzero diurnal means Fri-Sat.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#63 Posted : 16 January 2022 10:52:42(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      5.5c      Anomaly      2.0c provisional to 15th
Metcheck                  4.68c     Anomaly      0.53c
Netweather               5.21c     Anomaly      1.02c
Peasedown St John    5.27c     Anomaly      0.18c.

Edited by user 16 January 2022 10:54:18(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Caz  
#64 Posted : 16 January 2022 15:03:12(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,897
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Stormchaser Go to Quoted Post

It appears we're headed for a near-average month overall, unless there's a big shift toward a mild westerly regime or sustained cold northerly/easterly one. The latter featured in the GFS 06z but seems a long shot. The former is hinted at by the ECM 12z as of +10 days from now, but it's not clear cut whether it would actually head down that path. In any case, it's the first deterministic run of the past 4 or 5 days to even suggest such a thing!

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1482450903349317632

I wonder just how much of a discrepancy there now is between the provisional and actual CET. Central England has experienced a wide area of lingering fog for a few days now, with the Pershore area recording subzero diurnal means Fri-Sat.

A near average month after such a high start!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Offline ARTzeman  
#65 Posted : 17 January 2022 10:44:57(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       5.5c      Anomaly      2.0c provisional to 16th

Metcheck                    4.66c    Anomaly       0.51c

Netweather                 5.21c    Anomaly       1.02c

Peasedown St John     5.15c    Anomaly       1.05c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#66 Posted : 18 January 2022 11:42:27(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley          5.5c       Anomaly     2.0c. provisional to 17th

Metcheck                       4.49c     Anomaly     0.34c

Netweather                    5.09c     Anomaly     0.9c

Peasedown St John       4.91c     Anomaly     -0.54c.   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#67 Posted : 19 January 2022 10:52:31(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        5.3c        Anomaly      1.8c provisional to 18th

Metcheck                     4.7c        Anomaly       0.32c

Netweather                  4.93c      Anomaly       0.74c

Peasedown St John      4.72c      Anomaly      -0.73c.  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#68 Posted : 20 January 2022 12:18:05(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         5.3c          Anomaly        1.8c provisional to 19th

Metcheck                      4.43c        Anomaly        0.28c

Netweather                   4.96c        Anomaly        0.79c

Peasedsown St John      5.91c       Anomaly        0.45c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Online Saint Snow  
#69 Posted : 21 January 2022 09:54:50(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,360
Man
Location: St Helens

Can't see the CET dropping much further, if at all. 

It's frustrating that another spell dominated by high pressure has had annoyingly mild temps.  tiny bit further north/west would have made a difference.

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Offline ARTzeman  
#70 Posted : 21 January 2022 10:53:38(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        5.2c        Anomaly       1.7c  provisional to 20th

Metcheck                     4.27c      Anomaly        0.12c

Netweather                  4.79c      Anomaly        0.6c

Peasedown St John      4.5c       Anomaly         -0.95c.       

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#71 Posted : 22 January 2022 11:07:58(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        5.0c         Anomaly      1.5c provisional to 21st

Metcheck                     4.27c       Anomaly       0.12c

Netweather                  4.62c       Anomaly       0.48c.

Peasedown St John      4.54c       Anomaly       0.91c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#72 Posted : 23 January 2022 11:17:26(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       5.0c      Anomaly     1.4c provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                    4.31c    Anomaly      0.16c

Netweather                 4.68c    Anomaly      0.49c

Peasdedown St John   4.58c      Anomaly      -0.87c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#73 Posted : 24 January 2022 10:55:43(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       5.0c       Anomaly       1.3c provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                    4.26c     Anomaly        0.11c

Netweather                 4.68c     Anomaly        0.49c

Peasedown St John       4.7c      Anomaly        0.91c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#74 Posted : 25 January 2022 11:24:28(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       4.9c      Anomaly       1.2c provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                     4.18c   Anomaly        0.03c

Netweather                  4.61c   Anomaly        0.42c

Peasedown St John     4.42c    Anomaly       -1.03c.   

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#75 Posted : 26 January 2022 11:08:31(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        4.8c       Anomaly       1.1c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                     4.11c     Anomaly       -0.4c

Netweather                  4.52c     Anomaly       0.33c

Peasedown St John      4.47c     Anomaly      -0.98c.

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Col  
#76 Posted : 26 January 2022 17:55:51(UTC)
Col

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 12/01/2013(UTC)
Posts: 1,708
Location: Bolton 160m asl

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley        4.8c       Anomaly       1.1c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                     4.11c     Anomaly       -0.4c

Netweather                  4.52c     Anomaly       0.33c

Peasedown St John      4.47c     Anomaly      -0.98c.

 

OK so we have now finally ground our way down to my prediction of 4.82C. I'll need a good downgrade now though to counteract the mild/very mild conditions expected in the next few days.

Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/c...UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Offline ARTzeman  
#77 Posted : 27 January 2022 10:51:38(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      4.8c      Anomaly        1.1c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                   4.22c    Anomaly         0.07c

Netweather                4.56c    Anomaly         0.37c

Peasedown St John    4.61c    Anomaly        -0.84c. 

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Whether Idle  
#78 Posted : 27 January 2022 11:18:51(UTC)
Whether Idle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 03/09/2006(UTC)
Posts: 9,191
Man
Location: Dover

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman Go to Quoted Post

Met Office Hadley      4.8c      Anomaly        1.1c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                   4.22c    Anomaly         0.07c

Netweather                4.56c    Anomaly         0.37c

Peasedown St John    4.61c    Anomaly        -0.84c. 

 

4.8 minus 0.3* = 4.5 currently? We could end up around 4.6 to 4.9 depending upon the extent of the downgrade

* Months with frosty nights often have a 0.3 or greater reduction

Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
Offline Caz  
#79 Posted : 27 January 2022 16:23:21(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,897
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

 

4.8 minus 0.3* = 4.5 currently? We could end up around 4.6 to 4.9 depending upon the extent of the downgrade

* Months with frosty nights often have a 0.3 or greater reduction

Although it was 9c here at 6am today.  First none frosty start for a few days!  

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition

Online Saint Snow  
#80 Posted : 27 January 2022 17:01:38(UTC)
Saint Snow

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 55,360
Man
Location: St Helens

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post

 

4.8 minus 0.3* = 4.5 currently? We could end up around 4.6 to 4.9 depending upon the extent of the downgrade

* Months with frosty nights often have a 0.3 or greater reduction

 

 

I'd take that!

 

Martin

Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)

A TWO addict since 14/12/01

"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."

Aneurin Bevan

Users browsing this topic
Similar Topics
January UK Temperature analysis and discussion (Weather)
by Global Warming 30/12/2020 12:33:20(UTC)
January UK Temperature analysis and discussion (Weather)
by Global Warming 30/12/2019 19:40:15(UTC)
January UK temperature analysis and discussion (Weather)
by Global Warming 29/12/2018 22:11:53(UTC)
6 Pages«<23456>
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Code of conduct

× FORUM Settings USER PHOTOS Sky Eye Camera Sky Eye Gallery MODEL CHARTS Arome Arpege ECM ECM ENS GEM GEFS GFS Icon E Fax CFS UK Met UK Met UK UK Met UKV UK Met MOGREPS-G