Met Office Hadley         5.8c        Anomaly       2.3c. provisional to 14th

Metcheck                      4.75c      Anomaly        0.60c

Netweather                   5.43c      Anomaly        1.24c

Peasedown St John       5.05c     Anomaly         0.4c   

It appears we're headed for a near-average month overall, unless there's a big shift toward a mild westerly regime or sustained cold northerly/easterly one. The latter featured in the GFS 06z but seems a long shot. The former is hinted at by the ECM 12z as of +10 days from now, but it's not clear cut whether it would actually head down that path. In any case, it's the first deterministic run of the past 4 or 5 days to even suggest such a thing!

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1482450903349317632

I wonder just how much of a discrepancy there now is between the provisional and actual CET. Central England has experienced a wide area of lingering fog for a few days now, with the Pershore area recording subzero diurnal means Fri-Sat.

Met Office Hadley      5.5c      Anomaly      2.0c provisional to 15th
Metcheck                  4.68c     Anomaly      0.53c
Netweather               5.21c     Anomaly      1.02c
Peasedown St John    5.27c     Anomaly      0.18c.

It appears we're headed for a near-average month overall, unless there's a big shift toward a mild westerly regime or sustained cold northerly/easterly one. The latter featured in the GFS 06z but seems a long shot. The former is hinted at by the ECM 12z as of +10 days from now, but it's not clear cut whether it would actually head down that path. In any case, it's the first deterministic run of the past 4 or 5 days to even suggest such a thing!

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1482450903349317632

I wonder just how much of a discrepancy there now is between the provisional and actual CET. Central England has experienced a wide area of lingering fog for a few days now, with the Pershore area recording subzero diurnal means Fri-Sat.

Met Office Hadley       5.5c      Anomaly      2.0c provisional to 16th

Metcheck                    4.66c    Anomaly       0.51c

Netweather                 5.21c    Anomaly       1.02c

Peasedown St John     5.15c    Anomaly       1.05c. 

Met Office Hadley          5.5c       Anomaly     2.0c. provisional to 17th

Metcheck                       4.49c     Anomaly     0.34c

Netweather                    5.09c     Anomaly     0.9c

Peasedown St John       4.91c     Anomaly     -0.54c.   

Met Office Hadley        5.3c        Anomaly      1.8c provisional to 18th

Metcheck                     4.7c        Anomaly       0.32c

Netweather                  4.93c      Anomaly       0.74c

Peasedown St John      4.72c      Anomaly      -0.73c.  

Met Office Hadley         5.3c          Anomaly        1.8c provisional to 19th

Metcheck                      4.43c        Anomaly        0.28c

Netweather                   4.96c        Anomaly        0.79c

Peasedsown St John      5.91c       Anomaly        0.45c.

Can't see the CET dropping much further, if at all. 

It's frustrating that another spell dominated by high pressure has had annoyingly mild temps.  tiny bit further north/west would have made a difference.

Met Office Hadley        5.2c        Anomaly       1.7c  provisional to 20th

Metcheck                     4.27c      Anomaly        0.12c

Netweather                  4.79c      Anomaly        0.6c

Peasedown St John      4.5c       Anomaly         -0.95c.       

Met Office Hadley        5.0c         Anomaly      1.5c provisional to 21st

Metcheck                     4.27c       Anomaly       0.12c

Netweather                  4.62c       Anomaly       0.48c.

Peasedown St John      4.54c       Anomaly       0.91c.

Met Office Hadley       5.0c      Anomaly     1.4c provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                    4.31c    Anomaly      0.16c

Netweather                 4.68c    Anomaly      0.49c

Peasdedown St John   4.58c      Anomaly      -0.87c.

Met Office Hadley       5.0c       Anomaly       1.3c provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                    4.26c     Anomaly        0.11c

Netweather                 4.68c     Anomaly        0.49c

Peasedown St John       4.7c      Anomaly        0.91c.

Met Office Hadley       4.9c      Anomaly       1.2c provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                     4.18c   Anomaly        0.03c

Netweather                  4.61c   Anomaly        0.42c

Peasedown St John     4.42c    Anomaly       -1.03c.   

Met Office Hadley        4.8c       Anomaly       1.1c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                     4.11c     Anomaly       -0.4c

Netweather                  4.52c     Anomaly       0.33c

Peasedown St John      4.47c     Anomaly      -0.98c.

Met Office Hadley        4.8c       Anomaly       1.1c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                     4.11c     Anomaly       -0.4c

Netweather                  4.52c     Anomaly       0.33c

Peasedown St John      4.47c     Anomaly      -0.98c.

 

OK so we have now finally ground our way down to my prediction of 4.82C. I'll need a good downgrade now though to counteract the mild/very mild conditions expected in the next few days.

Met Office Hadley      4.8c      Anomaly        1.1c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                   4.22c    Anomaly         0.07c

Netweather                4.56c    Anomaly         0.37c

Peasedown St John    4.61c    Anomaly        -0.84c. 

Met Office Hadley      4.8c      Anomaly        1.1c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                   4.22c    Anomaly         0.07c

Netweather                4.56c    Anomaly         0.37c

Peasedown St John    4.61c    Anomaly        -0.84c. 

 

4.8 minus 0.3* = 4.5 currently? We could end up around 4.6 to 4.9 depending upon the extent of the downgrade

 

4.8 minus 0.3* = 4.5 currently? We could end up around 4.6 to 4.9 depending upon the extent of the downgrade

* Months with frosty nights often have a 0.3 or greater reduction

 

4.8 minus 0.3* = 4.5 currently? We could end up around 4.6 to 4.9 depending upon the extent of the downgrade

* Months with frosty nights often have a 0.3 or greater reduction

I'd take that!