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western100
Monday, January 10, 2022 7:07:23 PM
Temperatures falling and the CET region may be in for a coldish week which could drop it down

IMBY down to 5.3 now

Something between 4-5 is a good bet I feel for month end
Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
ARTzeman
Tuesday, January 11, 2022 12:26:05 PM

Met Office Hadley       6.2c      Anomaly      2.7c provisional to 10th


Metcheck                    5.66c    Anomaly       1.51c


Netweather                 6.09c    Anomaly        1.9c


Peasedown St John     5.34c    Anomaly       0.11c.      






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Gusty
Tuesday, January 11, 2022 8:02:13 PM

Interesting month this one. 


Those who have gone colder (in the 4's) will be hoping this weeks anticyclone will trap a lot of fog at the surface and that next weeks Scandinavian grazer advects enough cold air at the surface before the lid comes down and traps it in again. Those like me who have gone in the mid to high 5's will be wishing that high pressure holds further south allowing for a milder, cloudier set up.


On balance its looking like a mid 4 finish at the moment.  


 


Steve - Folkestone, Kent
Current conditions from my Davis Vantage Vue
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IFOLKE11 
Join Kent Weather on Facebook.
https://www.facebook.com/stevewall69/ 



western100
Tuesday, January 11, 2022 9:15:29 PM
It shows how a mild few days can take nearly 2 weeks to pull back to closer to average in our current pattern

IMBY down to 5.2 now

This week is a crucial week if you want an average to below average month….


Worcestershire / Warwickshire Border
100m ASL
Twitter…..@Weather4u2
ARTzeman
Wednesday, January 12, 2022 10:47:19 AM

Met Office Hadley       6.5c      Anomaly       2.7c provisional to 11th


Metcheck                    5.46c    Anomaly       1.31c


Netweather                 6.15c    Anomaly     1.96c 


Peasedown St John     5.8c      Anomaly     0.35c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
Wednesday, January 12, 2022 9:35:25 PM

High sensitivity to the exact positioning and orientation of the high pressure relative to the UK in the coming week or two.


The initial airmass is clear enough that cold nights and fog are dominating the scene until Saturday.


This weekend, some milder air looks to scoot across, taking effect by Sunday when double digit maximums may occur widely.


Next week, signs are, we see the high centre more or less over the UK in the early to mid-stages, so the inversion may redevelop, depending on how much moisture-laden Atlantic air has been entrained during the weekend. Most model runs shrug much of that off and some draw in some drier air from the near continent, so there seems to be a good shot at developing a new inversion.


Later in the week, there are signs the high will shift west a bit, at least for a time, giving a chance of cold air from the north. Probably just a glancing blow if anything, but it should tend to help keep skies more clear than grey.


Beyond that, the models are keen on repeating the sequence - high pressure spilling back across the UK, then heading west again. An astonishingly 'stuck cycle', which likely has a lot to do with anomalous tropical convection persisting over the western-central Pacific for a record-long spell, by far, for the time of year. A huge distortion to the zonal flow has gradually built up, almost like debris behind a dam - it's going to take some shifting!


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
Wednesday, January 12, 2022 11:42:56 PM

Expecting lower figures for the last week of the month.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Thursday, January 13, 2022 11:52:03 AM

Met Office Hadley       6.2c       Anomaly       2.6c provisional to 12th


Metcheck                    5.24c     Anomaly       1.08c


Netweather                 5.92c     Anomaly       1.75c


Peasedown St John    6.7c       Anomaly        1.25.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Friday, January 14, 2022 11:04:08 AM

Met Office Hadley        6.0c       Anomaly         2.5c provisional to13th


Metcheck                     5.03c     Anomaly         0.88c


Netweather                  5.07c     Anomaly         1.51c 


Peasedown St John      6.5c      Anomaly          1.05c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
GezM
  • GezM
  • Advanced Member
Friday, January 14, 2022 1:51:49 PM


Met Office Hadley        6.0c       Anomaly         2.5c provisional to13th


Metcheck                     5.03c     Anomaly         0.88c


Netweather                  5.07c     Anomaly         1.51c 


Peasedown St John      6.5c      Anomaly          1.05c.  


Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 


With the frosty nights we're getting now, I'm wondering if this will be a month with a large downward adjustment? Always seems to happen when nights are cold. 


Living in St Albans, Herts (116m asl)
Working at Luton Airport, Beds (160m asl)
ARTzeman
Saturday, January 15, 2022 12:20:43 PM

Met Office Hadley         5.8c        Anomaly       2.3c. provisional to 14th


Metcheck                      4.75c      Anomaly        0.60c


Netweather                   5.43c      Anomaly        1.24c


Peasedown St John       5.05c     Anomaly         0.4c   


 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
Saturday, January 15, 2022 8:41:20 PM

It appears we're headed for a near-average month overall, unless there's a big shift toward a mild westerly regime or sustained cold northerly/easterly one. The latter featured in the GFS 06z but seems a long shot. The former is hinted at by the ECM 12z as of +10 days from now, but it's not clear cut whether it would actually head down that path. In any case, it's the first deterministic run of the past 4 or 5 days to even suggest such a thing!


https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1482450903349317632


I wonder just how much of a discrepancy there now is between the provisional and actual CET. Central England has experienced a wide area of lingering fog for a few days now, with the Pershore area recording subzero diurnal means Fri-Sat.


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email [email protected]

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 
2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
ARTzeman
Sunday, January 16, 2022 10:52:42 AM

Met Office Hadley      5.5c      Anomaly      2.0c provisional to 15th
Metcheck                  4.68c     Anomaly      0.53c
Netweather               5.21c     Anomaly      1.02c
Peasedown St John    5.27c     Anomaly      0.18c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
Sunday, January 16, 2022 3:03:12 PM


It appears we're headed for a near-average month overall, unless there's a big shift toward a mild westerly regime or sustained cold northerly/easterly one. The latter featured in the GFS 06z but seems a long shot. The former is hinted at by the ECM 12z as of +10 days from now, but it's not clear cut whether it would actually head down that path. In any case, it's the first deterministic run of the past 4 or 5 days to even suggest such a thing!


https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1482450903349317632


I wonder just how much of a discrepancy there now is between the provisional and actual CET. Central England has experienced a wide area of lingering fog for a few days now, with the Pershore area recording subzero diurnal means Fri-Sat.


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 

A near average month after such a high start!  


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.
Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition.
ARTzeman
Monday, January 17, 2022 10:44:57 AM

Met Office Hadley       5.5c      Anomaly      2.0c provisional to 16th


Metcheck                    4.66c    Anomaly       0.51c


Netweather                 5.21c    Anomaly       1.02c


Peasedown St John     5.15c    Anomaly       1.05c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Tuesday, January 18, 2022 11:42:27 AM

Met Office Hadley          5.5c       Anomaly     2.0c. provisional to 17th


Metcheck                       4.49c     Anomaly     0.34c


Netweather                    5.09c     Anomaly     0.9c


Peasedown St John       4.91c     Anomaly     -0.54c.   






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Wednesday, January 19, 2022 10:52:31 AM

Met Office Hadley        5.3c        Anomaly      1.8c provisional to 18th


Metcheck                     4.7c        Anomaly       0.32c


Netweather                  4.93c      Anomaly       0.74c


Peasedown St John      4.72c      Anomaly      -0.73c.  






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Thursday, January 20, 2022 12:18:05 PM

Met Office Hadley         5.3c          Anomaly        1.8c provisional to 19th


Metcheck                      4.43c        Anomaly        0.28c


Netweather                   4.96c        Anomaly        0.79c


Peasedsown St John      5.91c       Anomaly        0.45c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Saint Snow
Friday, January 21, 2022 9:54:50 AM

Can't see the CET dropping much further, if at all. 


It's frustrating that another spell dominated by high pressure has had annoyingly mild temps.  tiny bit further north/west would have made a difference.



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
ARTzeman
Friday, January 21, 2022 10:53:38 AM

Met Office Hadley        5.2c        Anomaly       1.7c  provisional to 20th


Metcheck                     4.27c      Anomaly        0.12c


Netweather                  4.79c      Anomaly        0.6c


Peasedown St John      4.5c       Anomaly         -0.95c.       






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Saturday, January 22, 2022 11:07:58 AM

Met Office Hadley        5.0c         Anomaly      1.5c provisional to 21st


Metcheck                     4.27c       Anomaly       0.12c


Netweather                  4.62c       Anomaly       0.48c.


Peasedown St John      4.54c       Anomaly       0.91c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Sunday, January 23, 2022 11:17:26 AM

Met Office Hadley       5.0c      Anomaly     1.4c provisional to 22nd


Metcheck                    4.31c    Anomaly      0.16c


Netweather                 4.68c    Anomaly      0.49c


Peasdedown St John   4.58c      Anomaly      -0.87c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Monday, January 24, 2022 10:55:43 AM

Met Office Hadley       5.0c       Anomaly       1.3c provisional to 23rd.


Metcheck                    4.26c     Anomaly        0.11c


Netweather                 4.68c     Anomaly        0.49c


Peasedown St John       4.7c      Anomaly        0.91c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Tuesday, January 25, 2022 11:24:28 AM

Met Office Hadley       4.9c      Anomaly       1.2c provisional to 24th.


Metcheck                     4.18c   Anomaly        0.03c


Netweather                  4.61c   Anomaly        0.42c


Peasedown St John     4.42c    Anomaly       -1.03c.   






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
Wednesday, January 26, 2022 11:08:31 AM

Met Office Hadley        4.8c       Anomaly       1.1c provisional to 25th


Metcheck                     4.11c     Anomaly       -0.4c


Netweather                  4.52c     Anomaly       0.33c


Peasedown St John      4.47c     Anomaly      -0.98c.


 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

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