Met Office Hadley       6.2c      Anomaly      2.7c provisional to 10th

Metcheck                    5.66c    Anomaly       1.51c

Netweather                 6.09c    Anomaly        1.9c

Peasedown St John     5.34c    Anomaly       0.11c.      

Interesting month this one. 

Those who have gone colder (in the 4's) will be hoping this weeks anticyclone will trap a lot of fog at the surface and that next weeks Scandinavian grazer advects enough cold air at the surface before the lid comes down and traps it in again. Those like me who have gone in the mid to high 5's will be wishing that high pressure holds further south allowing for a milder, cloudier set up.

On balance its looking like a mid 4 finish at the moment.  

Met Office Hadley       6.5c      Anomaly       2.7c provisional to 11th

Metcheck                    5.46c    Anomaly       1.31c

Netweather                 6.15c    Anomaly     1.96c 

Peasedown St John     5.8c      Anomaly     0.35c. 

High sensitivity to the exact positioning and orientation of the high pressure relative to the UK in the coming week or two.

The initial airmass is clear enough that cold nights and fog are dominating the scene until Saturday.

This weekend, some milder air looks to scoot across, taking effect by Sunday when double digit maximums may occur widely.

Next week, signs are, we see the high centre more or less over the UK in the early to mid-stages, so the inversion may redevelop, depending on how much moisture-laden Atlantic air has been entrained during the weekend. Most model runs shrug much of that off and some draw in some drier air from the near continent, so there seems to be a good shot at developing a new inversion.

Later in the week, there are signs the high will shift west a bit, at least for a time, giving a chance of cold air from the north. Probably just a glancing blow if anything, but it should tend to help keep skies more clear than grey.

Beyond that, the models are keen on repeating the sequence - high pressure spilling back across the UK, then heading west again. An astonishingly 'stuck cycle', which likely has a lot to do with anomalous tropical convection persisting over the western-central Pacific for a record-long spell, by far, for the time of year. A huge distortion to the zonal flow has gradually built up, almost like debris behind a dam - it's going to take some shifting!

Expecting lower figures for the last week of the month.

Met Office Hadley       6.2c       Anomaly       2.6c provisional to 12th

Metcheck                    5.24c     Anomaly       1.08c

Netweather                 5.92c     Anomaly       1.75c

Peasedown St John    6.7c       Anomaly        1.25.  

Met Office Hadley        6.0c       Anomaly         2.5c provisional to13th

Metcheck                     5.03c     Anomaly         0.88c

Netweather                  5.07c     Anomaly         1.51c 

Peasedown St John      6.5c      Anomaly          1.05c.  

With the frosty nights we're getting now, I'm wondering if this will be a month with a large downward adjustment? Always seems to happen when nights are cold. 

Met Office Hadley         5.8c        Anomaly       2.3c. provisional to 14th

Metcheck                      4.75c      Anomaly        0.60c

Netweather                   5.43c      Anomaly        1.24c

Peasedown St John       5.05c     Anomaly         0.4c   

It appears we're headed for a near-average month overall, unless there's a big shift toward a mild westerly regime or sustained cold northerly/easterly one. The latter featured in the GFS 06z but seems a long shot. The former is hinted at by the ECM 12z as of +10 days from now, but it's not clear cut whether it would actually head down that path. In any case, it's the first deterministic run of the past 4 or 5 days to even suggest such a thing!

https://twitter.com/peacockreports/status/1482450903349317632

I wonder just how much of a discrepancy there now is between the provisional and actual CET. Central England has experienced a wide area of lingering fog for a few days now, with the Pershore area recording subzero diurnal means Fri-Sat.

Met Office Hadley      5.5c      Anomaly      2.0c provisional to 15th
Metcheck                  4.68c     Anomaly      0.53c
Netweather               5.21c     Anomaly      1.02c
Peasedown St John    5.27c     Anomaly      0.18c.

Met Office Hadley       5.5c      Anomaly      2.0c provisional to 16th

Metcheck                    4.66c    Anomaly       0.51c

Netweather                 5.21c    Anomaly       1.02c

Peasedown St John     5.15c    Anomaly       1.05c. 

Met Office Hadley          5.5c       Anomaly     2.0c. provisional to 17th

Metcheck                       4.49c     Anomaly     0.34c

Netweather                    5.09c     Anomaly     0.9c

Peasedown St John       4.91c     Anomaly     -0.54c.   

Met Office Hadley        5.3c        Anomaly      1.8c provisional to 18th

Metcheck                     4.7c        Anomaly       0.32c

Netweather                  4.93c      Anomaly       0.74c

Peasedown St John      4.72c      Anomaly      -0.73c.  

Met Office Hadley         5.3c          Anomaly        1.8c provisional to 19th

Metcheck                      4.43c        Anomaly        0.28c

Netweather                   4.96c        Anomaly        0.79c

Peasedsown St John      5.91c       Anomaly        0.45c.

Can't see the CET dropping much further, if at all. 

It's frustrating that another spell dominated by high pressure has had annoyingly mild temps.  tiny bit further north/west would have made a difference.

Met Office Hadley        5.2c        Anomaly       1.7c  provisional to 20th

Metcheck                     4.27c      Anomaly        0.12c

Netweather                  4.79c      Anomaly        0.6c

Peasedown St John      4.5c       Anomaly         -0.95c.       

Met Office Hadley        5.0c         Anomaly      1.5c provisional to 21st

Metcheck                     4.27c       Anomaly       0.12c

Netweather                  4.62c       Anomaly       0.48c.

Peasedown St John      4.54c       Anomaly       0.91c.

Met Office Hadley       5.0c      Anomaly     1.4c provisional to 22nd

Metcheck                    4.31c    Anomaly      0.16c

Netweather                 4.68c    Anomaly      0.49c

Peasdedown St John   4.58c      Anomaly      -0.87c.

Met Office Hadley       5.0c       Anomaly       1.3c provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                    4.26c     Anomaly        0.11c

Netweather                 4.68c     Anomaly        0.49c

Peasedown St John       4.7c      Anomaly        0.91c.

Met Office Hadley       4.9c      Anomaly       1.2c provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                     4.18c   Anomaly        0.03c

Netweather                  4.61c   Anomaly        0.42c

Peasedown St John     4.42c    Anomaly       -1.03c.   

Met Office Hadley        4.8c       Anomaly       1.1c provisional to 25th

Metcheck                     4.11c     Anomaly       -0.4c

Netweather                  4.52c     Anomaly       0.33c

Peasedown St John      4.47c     Anomaly      -0.98c.