Friday 20 Aug - Sunday 29 Aug

Often rather cloudy at times through next week with cloud thick enough for outbreaks of rain at times, especially towards the northwest of the UK. Elsewhere, largely dry with some sunny spells although rather breezy and cool. Towards the end of next week settled conditions are likely to become more dominant across most areas with plenty of dry weather. However there still remains the possibility of showers, with perhaps some longer spells of rain and stronger winds in the north. Temperatures are expected to be around average. During late August, similar conditions look likely but there is a greater chance of winds from a southerly sector allowing for the possibility of some very warm spells. This may also bring the chance of intermittent heavy rain and thundery showers.

Sunday 29 Aug - Sunday 12 Sep

Through late August there is an increased chance of warmer than average conditions. This may bring the risk of thundery showers and longer spells of rain at times. Into early September confidence is very low but a northwest to southeast split is most likely. The northwest may experience more unsettled conditions and at times showers to longer spells of rain may spread southeast to other areas. Temperatures fluctuating around average. Any more prolonged and drier weather would be most likely in the southeast where there is a greater chance of warm spells.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 21 Aug - Monday 30 Aug

Remaining unsettled through the weekend with showers and longer spells of rain at times, but also with some drier conditions with sunshine too. Feeling humid and rather warm. Through the new week it is likely to become drier and less humid from the north with sunny spells. Thereafter there is a signal for settled conditions to become more dominant across most areas with largely dry weather. However there still remains the possibility of showers in places, with perhaps some longer spells of rain in the north or northwest. Temperatures are expected to be around average, although there is an increasing possibility that some very warm spells may develop later in the period. This may also bring the chance of thundery showers, especially in the south.

Tuesday 31 Aug - Tuesday 14 Sep

Confidence is very low during this period. A northwest to southeast split is most likely. Showers or longer spells of rain, together with strong winds, may affect northwestern areas, with these conditions spreading southeast to other parts of the UK at times. Any more prolonged dry and settled weather is most likely in the southeast. Temperatures are expected to be near average, perhaps warmer in the south and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 22 Aug - Tuesday 31 Aug

Confidence is low to start this period, with uncertainties in the details of an area of low pressure which is likely to be in charge. Initially unsettled, particularly in the south, with extensive rain and showers on Sunday. Conditions should become more settled into next week, with plenty of dry weather with occasional sunny spells. These more settled conditions could remain throughout the week, however rain and showers could develop once again. This is most likely towards the south with rain most probably moving in from the west. Winds likely to be light at the start of the period before perhaps increasing through the week, particularly if the unsettled weather arrives from the west. Temperatures most likely remaining close to, or rather above average, with warm spells likely at times.

Wednesday 1 Sep - Wednesday 15 Sep

Confidence exceptionally low across this period. The most probable scenario is that conditions be close to what is expected for late summer and early autumn. A possible northwest/southeast split is also likely. Showers or longer spells of rain, together with strong winds, may affect northwestern areas, with these conditions spreading southeast to other parts of the UK at times. Any more prolonged dry and settled weather is most likely in the southeast. Temperatures are expected to be near average, perhaps warmer in the south and east.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Wednesday 25 Aug - Friday 3 Sep

High pressure looks to become dominant across the UK with fine and settled weather continuing into this period. This will bring variable amounts of cloud, spells of sunshine and mainly light winds but also some fog patches by night, which readily clear away during day. It looks increasingly likely that these settled conditions will persist through much of this period, with perhaps weak frontal systems bringing some light rain at times. Winds likely to be light to moderate for most, with breezier conditions towards the edge of the high pressure in the far south, where it may feel cooler. Temperatures are likely to be rather warm in the west initially, but later feeling rather warm more widely, especially with increasing amounts of sunshine.

Saturday 4 Sep - Saturday 18 Sep

Confidence decreasing into this period, however there is a signal for high pressure and associated settled conditions to gradually become less dominant, with a trend towards more unsettled conditions. This may bring changeable conditions with periods of showers and longer spells of rain, interspersed with drier spells at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 28 Aug - Monday 6 Sep

The last weekend in August and into September is likely to be dominated by high pressure resulting in fine and settled weather across the UK. This will bring variable amounts of cloud, sunny spells, a few light showers and mainly light winds but some fog patches overnight, which clear during early morning. It looks increasingly likely that these settled conditions will persist through much of this period, with perhaps weak frontal systems bringing some light rain and showers at times. Winds likely to be light to moderate for most, with breezier conditions towards the edge of the high pressure in the far south, where it may feel cooler. Temperatures are likely to be rather warm in the west but near average and cool in the east below any persistent cloud.

Tuesday 7 Sep - Tuesday 21 Sep

Confidence decreasing into this period, however there is a signal for high pressure and associated settled conditions to gradually become less dominant, with a trend towards more unsettled conditions. This may bring changeable conditions with periods of showers and longer spells of rain, interspersed with drier spells at times. Temperatures are likely to be above average for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Hi, I haven't posted on here for quite a while.

Please could someone tell me why forecasters are not using the 1991 to 2020 temperature mean. Ive asked various people and i've had no reply.

I can understand comparing the temperatures to 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2010 still.

Regards

Gary

Hi, I haven't posted on here for quite a while.

Please could someone tell me why forecasters are not using the 1991 to 2020 temperature mean. Ive asked various people and i've had no reply.

I can understand comparing the temperatures to 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2010 still.

Regards

Gary

I assume they will catch up. I doubt it's an agenda thing as some might imply

Sunday 29 Aug - Tuesday 7 Sep

High pressure is likely to dominate through the end of August and the start of September, resulting in fine and settled weather across the UK. This will bring variable amounts of cloud, sunny spells, a few light showers, and some fog patches overnight, which clear during early morning. It looks increasingly likely that largely settled conditions will persist through much of the rest of this period, though perhaps weak frontal systems bringing light rain and showers at times. Winds likely to be light to moderate for most, fresher along the east coasts, and breezier towards the far south, where it may feel cooler. It is likely to be rather warm in the west but cool in the east below any persistent cloud.

Wednesday 8 Sep - Wednesday 22 Sep

Confidence is decreasing into this period, however there is a signal for high pressure and associated settled conditions to gradually become less dominant, with a trend towards more unsettled weather expected into the second week of September. This may bring changeable conditions with periods of showers and longer spells of rain, interspersed with drier spells at times, especially nearing the end of this period. Confidence is high that temperatures are likely to be near or above average for the time of the year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Hi, I haven't posted on here for quite a while.

Please could someone tell me why forecasters are not using the 1991 to 2020 temperature mean. Ive asked various people and i've had no reply.

I can understand comparing the temperatures to 1961 to 1980 and 1981 to 2010 still.

Regards

Gary

I would also like to get an answer to that one because I believe that 1991-2020 averages are probably much more relevant in terms of what is happening today, rather than those older 1981-2010 and 1961-90 averages which are still in use.

Yet, the Met Office haven't yet issued any 1991-2020 averages on their website, otherwise I would now be using those 1991-2020 averages for everything which I report on this forum, rather than the older 1981-2010 averages which I am still having to use as those are still the newest averages which have been released by the Met Office as I write.

Saturday 4 Sep - Monday 13 Sep

High pressure still in charge initially. Most areas will see a continuation of dry weather, except for light rain or drizzle over windward coasts and hills, especially in eastern areas, with variable cloud and some spells of sunshine. Temperatures are likely to be near average for most, but rather cool in eastern regions. Over the weekend, as the high pressure begins to break down, outbreaks of rain may start to spread to some southern and western areas, with mostly dry weather continuing elsewhere. Into the following week, unsettled weather continues to push eastwards, bringing showers or longer spells of rain across many parts of the UK. Northern and eastern areas remaining settled for the longest. Winds remain light to moderate, but stronger in the northwest later, and temperatures around average.

Monday 13 Sep - Monday 27 Sep

The influence of tropical storm activity brings some uncertainty to this period. An unsettled spell is most likely for the middle of September, the focus for this toward the northwest of the UK, with the south and southeast perhaps holding on to drier weather. Toward the end of the month, it looks like a trend toward drier weather will begin, especially across the south. Temperatures are likely to be near to or a little above average for the time of year.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Tuesday 7 Sep - Thursday 16 Sep

Conditions are expected to become less settled through this period, though confidence is low at this time. Showers or longer spells of rain are likely, the focus of these perhaps across western areas, while some parts of the east may well hang on to largely dry conditions for much of this period. It will also be windy at times, this particularly so around some southern and western coasts and over the hills. There is the potential for some of the rain to be heavy at times, with the risk of some thunderstorms mixed in. Temperatures are likely to trend warmer than average across all parts, perhaps becoming very warm at times across sunnier parts of the east.

Friday 17 Sep - Friday 1 Oct

Confidence is relatively low during this period, as is usual for September, in part due to tropical storm activity across the Atlantic, which can significantly affect weather at the mid-latitudes. Currently, the evidence points towards the unsettled theme being likely to continue through the middle of the month, with a weak indication of possible drier conditions late in September. Therefore, rainfall is expected to be above average at first, with the chance of it easing and trending towards or drier than average later. Following this pattern, temperatures are expected to fluctuate around average in the middle of the month, with some occasional warm spells - these more likely in the southeast, and perhaps more widely towards the end of the month.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Thursday 9 Sep - Saturday 18 Sep

The bulk of the UK is likely to turn more unsettled with a likelihood of showers at times, and these could turn heavy or thundery in places with a risk of localised torrential downpours. Outside of showers, periods of drier and sunnier weather are still a possibility, and these are most likely to be longest lived across eastern areas. For northwestern parts of the UK, alongside these showers, some more prolonged and heavier spells of rain are possible. Later in the period into mid-September, confidence is fairly low, but the unsettled theme will probably continue. Temperatures are likely to be above average throughout, with some areas perhaps feeling warm or even very warm at first.

Sunday 19 Sep - Sunday 3 Oct

Confidence is relatively low during this period, in part due to tropical storm activity across the Atlantic, which can significantly affect weather at the mid-latitudes. However, the unsettled theme will probably continue throughout this period and perhaps extend into late September, with rainfall expected to be slightly above average. Beyond this, there is a chance of more settled conditions, especially across southern areas, with a chance of rainfall easing and trending towards average or drier than average. Temperatures are likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Friday 10 Sep - Sunday 19 Sep

The bulk of the UK is likely to turn more unsettled with a likelihood of showers at times, and these could turn heavy or thundery in places with a risk of localised torrential downpours. Outside of showers, periods of drier and sunnier weather are still a possibility, and these are most likely to be longest lived across eastern areas. For northwestern parts of the UK, alongside these showers, some more prolonged and heavier spells of rain are possible. Later in the period into mid-September, confidence is fairly low, but the unsettled theme will probably continue. Temperatures are likely to be above average throughout, with some areas perhaps feeling warm or even very warm at first.

Monday 20 Sep - Monday 4 Oct

Confidence is relatively low during this period, in part due to tropical storm activity across the Atlantic, which can significantly affect weather at the mid-latitudes. However, the unsettled theme will probably continue throughout this period and perhaps extend into late September, with rainfall expected to be slightly above average. Beyond this, there is a chance of more settled conditions, especially across southern areas, with a chance of rainfall easing and trending towards average or drier than average. Temperatures are likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Saturday 11 Sep - Monday 20 Sep

The start of the period is looking mixed, with areas of cloud and some showery rain along with increasing areas of good sunny spells and dry weather. There is a chance of sunnier, drier conditions moving in from the west or northwest during this time. Conditions will become less settled towards the middle of the period, with showers and chances of longer spells of rain. This rain could become heavy, particularly in the west and northwest, with thunderstorms possible throughout the UK. Drier and sunnier periods are still expected, especially in the east. Later in the period into mid-September, confidence is fairly low, but the unsettled theme will probably continue. Temperatures are likely to be above average throughout, with some areas perhaps feeling warm or even very warm at first.

Tuesday 21 Sep - Tuesday 5 Oct

Confidence is relatively low during this period, in part due to tropical storm activity across the Atlantic, which can significantly affect weather at the mid-latitudes. However, the unsettled theme will probably continue throughout the first half of this period with rainfall expected to be slightly above average. Beyond this, there is a chance of more settled conditions, especially across southern areas, with a chance of rainfall easing and trending towards average or drier than average. Temperatures are likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Sunday 12 Sep - Tuesday 21 Sep

Sunday is expected to be mostly dry with variable cloud and some sunny spells. Scattered, mostly light showers are still possible, mainly in eastern areas. The sunniest conditions are most probable in the west. These settled and largely dry conditions are expected to continue into next week with variable cloud and some decent clear and sunny spells, although perhaps cloudier in the far north and northwest with rain at times. Probably turning more unsettled from the southwest later in the week, with rain or showers perhaps turning heavy and thundery. Some regions, especially in the north and east, could remain fine and dry. Temperatures near normal to rather warm, although some cool nights are likely, especially at first with rural ground frosts possible.

Wednesday 22 Sep - Wednesday 6 Oct

Confidence is typically low. The most likely scenario is that conditions remain more unsettled overall from mid-to late September, beyond which a trend to more settled conditions is probable, especially across the south. Within the unsettled period there is a very low risk of very disturbed, perhaps stormy conditions. Rainfall expected to be above average, although may trend to near or drier than average late into September and into early October. Temperatures likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

Monday 13 Sep - Wednesday 22 Sep

Monday is expected to be mostly dry with cloudier conditions south and east, and brighter further west. Scattered, mostly light showers are still possible, with a chance of heavier rain in the southwest. Settled and largely dry conditions are then expected to continue through the start of next week with variable cloud and some decent clear and sunny spells, although perhaps cloudier in the far north and northwest with rain at times. Probably turning more unsettled from the southwest later in the week, with rain or showers perhaps turning heavy and thundery. Some regions, especially in the north and east, could remain fine and dry. Temperatures near normal to rather warm, although some cool nights are likely, especially at first with rural ground frosts possible.

Thursday 23 Sep - Thursday 7 Oct

Confidence is typically low. The most likely scenario is that conditions remain more unsettled overall from mid-to late September, beyond which a trend to more settled conditions is probable, especially across the south. Within the unsettled period there is a very low risk of very disturbed, perhaps stormy conditions. Rainfall expected to be above average, although may trend to near or drier than average late into September and into early October. Temperatures likely to remain above average throughout.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

That recent post is virtually identical to the previous one, Gavin. 

BBC monthly outlook

Summary

Changeable, often wet weather for a time

Wednesday 8 September to – Sunday 12 September

Showers at first with a drier, cooler weekend

A wetter end to the week is in store for most of the UK eventually, with some thunderstorms and heavy showers moving through to close out the working week. Temperatures will quickly moderate from a very warm midweek, dropping to nearer the seasonal norm by the weekend.

Hurricane Larry, meanwhile, should help build a ridge of high pressure that will push in from the west over the weekend, sending lows into Scandinavia. This will bring some drier but cooler weather for much of the UK, but a chance of rain remains for the south and east of England.

Monday 13 September to – Sunday 19 September

Dry and cool start, rain chances growing later

Our alternate scenario from Friday's outlook is now the more likely forecast for next week, with Hurricane Larry tracking near Newfoundland before heading north to Greenland this coming weekend. This sends high pressure into the UK which should then travel slowly eastward into central Europe and eventually Scandinavia.

The UK should expect a largely dry but cool start to the week, with temperatures widely a few degrees below normal. This will bring some crisp, decidedly autumnal mornings, especially in rural areas. Later in the week, the forecast is still quite tricky. High pressure is likely to be lurking nearby to the east, with low pressure systems drifting slowly around western Europe. We could see a rather wet second half of the week if these lows are able to get into the country from the south and south west.

However, if high pressure wins out, we may stay mostly dry with temperatures near or a bit below average. At the moment we are favouring the low pressure moving in from the south-west, bringing some warmer air and a chance of rain to the southern half of the country. High pressure could become more likely to linger if we see a tropical cyclone in the western Atlantic early in the week. This is looking increasingly likely, but we are currently expecting this feature to be weak and bring minimal disruption.

Monday 20 September to – Sunday 3 October

Wet and cool for a time but potentially dry later

Closing out September and heading into October, we can expect large scale low pressure over north-west Europe for a while, bringing unsettled weather. High pressure in the Atlantic and Russia should tend to build in late September, and Atlantic high pressure may be aided by further tropical cyclones in the tropics.

After an initially unsettled, cool, and changeable pattern, weather fronts should become less frequent and weaker as October nears. The low pressure trough should be deflected to the north or east, taking the wettest and coolest weather with it. Weak fronts may still get into northern or eastern parts of the UK, especially Scotland, so it may stay cloudier and a bit wetter there. Eventually, high pressure is likely to build in from the south or west again, and there are some signs that early October may be a little drier and warmer than normal.

Confidence is still rather low in the forecast, thanks to an expected very active Atlantic hurricane season. We may see a bit of a lull in development over the next week or so, but by late September and into October more tropical cyclones are likely, and these could cause some disruption to our weather if they get too far north or east.

Our forecast is sensitive to the location of high pressure to our west, and tropical cyclones tend to cause this to move about more than it should normally. We could see a much drier and warmer end to September if high pressure is more influential, and this is more likely if we see hurricanes in the central or North Atlantic.

Further ahead

While keeping a close eye on Atlantic hurricanes, we will lift the veil for the first week of October and see if the drier, warmer pattern is set to persist.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook

Tuesday 14 Sep - Thursday 23 Sep

Probably turning warmer but more unsettled again during the middle of next week with a chance of showers for most areas, these potentially heavy and thundery in places, especially across the south of the country. Towards the end of next week and thereafter, there is an increased chance of Atlantic systems arriving from the west. This will see spells of rain move across the country followed by brighter but showery periods. Some windy spells are also possible at times. It will likely be wettest in the northwest with the best of any drier weather in the southeast. Temperatures will be fluctuating around average for most, with a chance of some warm spells in the south.

Friday 24 Sep - Friday 8 Oct

Confidence is typically low. The most likely scenario is that conditions remain more unsettled overall from mid-to late September, beyond which a trend to more settled conditions is probable, especially across the south. Within the unsettled period there is a very low risk of very disturbed, perhaps stormy conditions. Rainfall expected to be above average, although may trend to near or drier than average late into September and into early October. Temperatures likely to remain above average throughout

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/