95L and 97L in mid-Atlantic looking promising for development; it could be either of these which appears on the GFS charts as a feature off the carolinas Sat 10th, even intensifying there for a while but not getting any further

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97l is now TS Elsa heading for Jamaica by Sunday and on to Florida. Not currently forecast to attain hurricane strength.

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Elsa has outperformed expectations, becoming a cat 1 hurricane with rapid intensifications over Barbados

Further info at https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/hurricane-elsa-first-atlantic-hurricane-of-2021-roars-through-lesser-antilles/ including the fact that this is the earliest Atlantic hurricane since 2012

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Just before 8 am in Cedar Key #Florida. One of the more vigorous tropical storms I've been in. I'll give it that. #ELSA pic.twitter.com/jjzbDdv5zE

— Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) July 7, 2021

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Sunrise on an intense annular hurricane with sustained winds now up to 145 mph.

Looks like we have some GLM flashes in the SW quad of the eye of #Felicia pic.twitter.com/uAxYx846BB

— Steve Copertino (@TheSteveCop) July 17, 2021

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Names in the eastern Pacific now up to Guillermo but all well out to sea

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Potential cyclone meandering around off the coast of Florida but development limited and movement uncertain. Why has it all gone quiet?

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Potential cyclone meandering around off the coast of Florida but development limited and movement uncertain. Why has it all gone quiet?

A good question Dew. Possibly due to some quite thick Saharan dust that left the west coast of Africa a tropical latitudes and has been making its way across the Atlantic in the last 10 days. Research suggests that this supresses storm development beause it makes the upper air so dry, even though it does give vast numbers of condensation nucleii. The other possibility is ENSO, which has been neutral. However there are signs of a La Nina developing within the next 6 months, and if it begins to develop substantially in Aug, Sep, Oct..we could end up with a back loaded season. All of which I'm sure you are well aware of. Makes for interesting observing, let alone forecasting. There is also some  tentative evidence that the smoke from the large fires in the Pacific North West and California can have a supressing effect, though the jury is out on that. Nothing is ever simple!!

 

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A good question Dew. Possibly due to some quite thick Saharan dust that left the west coast of Africa a tropical latitudes and has been making its way across the Atlantic in the last 10 days. Research suggests that this supresses storm development beause it makes the upper air so dry, even though it does give vast numbers of condensation nucleii. The other possibility is ENSO, which has been neutral. However there are signs of a La Nina developing within the next 6 months, and if it begins to develop substantially in Aug, Sep, Oct..we could end up with a back loaded season. All of which I'm sure you are well aware of. Makes for interesting observing, let alone forecasting. There is also some  tentative evidence that the smoke from the large fires in the Pacific North West and California can have a supressing effect, though the jury is out on that. Nothing is ever simple!!

 

Atlantic waking up at last? 

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc

Three disturbances between Africa & the Caribbean, two of which seem to have reasonable potential for development. My naive view would be that with no significant hurricanes this year, and none for a whole month since Elsa, there must be a lot of heat energy to be worked off. So when we do get a hurricane, it'll be a big one.

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It is looking more interesting, yet NHC and NOAA are still being cautious with developments, citing "environmental conditions" There is still a lot of dust in the area and across the Atlantic at least suppressing for a time Cape Verde developments. But that can change very quickly and  what seems unremarkable one day can just take off the next.  The dust charts are interesting epecially the dust load and dust concentration reports and forecasts. https://forecast.uoa.gr/en/forecast-maps/dust/north-atlantic  If the developments we are now seeing can get to the north of the dust zones, then ther is plenty of juicy air to work with. And none of this precludes developments in the Gulf of Mexico..home grown stuff.

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GFS OP is still picking up a potential major hurricane formation for Yucatan and progression to NE Mexico (21-23Aug)...long way off but worth keeping an eye on..Windsheer from cold fronts look likely for the development to remain Southern Caribbean at the moment

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GFS OP is still picking up a potential major hurricane formation for Yucatan and progression to NE Mexico (21-23Aug)...long way off but worth keeping an eye on..Windsheer from cold fronts look likely for the development to remain Southern Caribbean at the moment

It's probably me but I can't see anything showing that. Can you give me a link to a chart please. I'm a bit puzzled unless its the slow developing system near the Lesser Antilles thats progged to develop further and I'm missing some data.

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GFS OP is still picking up a potential major hurricane formation for Yucatan and progression to NE Mexico (21-23Aug)...long way off but worth keeping an eye on..Windsheer from cold fronts look likely for the development to remain Southern Caribbean at the moment

Nothing on the NHC charts yet which show potential TC Six developing into a TS (will be Fred if this happens) and running along N of Haiti and Cuba to reach W side of Florida on Sat. Development looks to be inhibited by interaction with the islands - may develop more strongly if it takes a more N-ly track

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Silly name, what next, Hurricane Dave?

 

#Fred has formed in the eastern Caribbean - the 6th named storm of 2021 Atlantic #hurricane season to date. Fred is 6th earliest 6th Atlantic named storm formation in satellite era (since 1966). Top 5 earliest 6th storm formations since 1966 are: 2020, 2005, 2012, 2017, 1995 pic.twitter.com/hw9ojx8bS1

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) August 11, 2021

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Fred now off Cuba and following the forecast track -likely to dump a lot of rain on Cuba, W Florida and S Appalachians in next few days. Meanwhile another storm is brewing in the Atlantic and may affect the Leeward Islands soon.

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Fred now drenching Cuba and predicted to move into the Gulf but moree parallel to the Florida coast and make landfall in Alabama

TD7 now approaching the Leeward Islands with similar track and forecast to Fred - likely to become TS Grace, but if it avoids close contactwith the island chain may become a hurricane

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TS Fred now on the point of drenching the southern Appalachians

Grace has encountered unfavourable conditions and is now a TD but may revive to Hurricane status once in the Gulf of Mexico. Unfortunately its now predicted more southerly track takes heavy rainfall into Haiti's earthquake zone

TS Henri is now close to Bermuda; one model suggest explosive development to a hurricane but most keep it as a TS

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Both #Grace and #Henri are forecast by National #Hurricane Center to reach hurricane strength by August 20. If forecasts verify, it will be first time since 2012 that the Atlantic has had 3 hurricanes (Elsa was a hurricane in July) by August 20. pic.twitter.com/AEMM7Z16DU

— Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) August 17, 2021

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Grace being downgraded as it crosses the Yucatan peninsula but likely to regain hirricane status on the far side before landfalling again in Z Mexico. Dry air inflow should inhibit major development

Henri continues to exceed expectations - NHC now shows it as becoming a hurricane only just off New England and many models suggest a landfall before it bounces off into the Atlantic. Its remnants may after all arrive to affect UK weather directly

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hmm - could all change but storm Henri is a cause for concern esp as it's track has taken a shift to the SW wards ever closer to the popular Big Apple - one to watch and could strengthen to a cat 2 storm esp given how warm the waters are off those shores:

 So far RI and Providence will take a direct hit and maybe Boston could take some battering too.

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