Potential cyclone meandering around off the coast of Florida but development limited and movement uncertain. Why has it all gone quiet?
A good question Dew. Possibly due to some quite thick Saharan dust that left the west coast of Africa a tropical latitudes and has been making its way across the Atlantic in the last 10 days. Research suggests that this supresses storm development beause it makes the upper air so dry, even though it does give vast numbers of condensation nucleii. The other possibility is ENSO, which has been neutral. However there are signs of a La Nina developing within the next 6 months, and if it begins to develop substantially in Aug, Sep, Oct..we could end up with a back loaded season. All of which I'm sure you are well aware of. Makes for interesting observing, let alone forecasting. There is also some tentative evidence that the smoke from the large fires in the Pacific North West and California can have a supressing effect, though the jury is out on that. Nothing is ever simple!!
Steve D. FRMetS
Burton Latimer, Kettering, Northants