Consensus amongst US meteorologists is that Henri will weaken rapidly  from hurricane to tropical storm as it leaves the warmth of the Gulf Stream and makes landfall over cooler waters. It's still going to have a major impact of wind and rain as it hits Long Island (hurricane watch in force), and then flooding all the way along the coast to Boston as it does that right-kand turn.

Some poor forecasts from the NHC on NOA.
Grace for instance was meant to remain a tropical storm and maybe strengthen to a cat 1 over gulf but turned out it was a major cat 3 hurricane 112mph winds before landfall.
Henri was meant to impact Nova Scotia. Then yesterday it was meant to have a direct hit to New England which was preparing for its first direct hit by a hurricane in 30 years. But now looks veering to the SW and the most impact will be felt along long Island but as a tropical storm only.
But things could change...?

Barry Manilow concert in Central Park NY stopped mid-performance. Audience told to go home and/or find shelter

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-58294809 

latest forecast is for landfall a little further east, on the eastern tip of Long Island and Connecticut with subsequent track as TS then all the way along the New England coast

Henri’s exceptionally slow movement through New England will allow for unusually large rainfall totals along and left of its path. A corridor of 4- to 6-inch rainfall totals can be expected, with isolated pockets of 6-10” amounts. Soils across much of eastern New York and New England are saturated from the passage of ex-Tropical Storm Fred several days ago, together with substantial moisture through the summer. This will lead to an enhanced flash flood threat,

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/hurricane-henri-aims-for-long-island-and-new-england-grace-makes-a-historic-landfall-in-the-bay-of-campeche/

The same site reviews Grace and speculates o Grace's remnants re-forming as a TS in the Pacific.

I was watching that Barry Manilow concert live on CNN last night when it happened! The crowd was very well behaved and no panic at all. But it was an older respectable crowd and they all left calmly 

70 mph winds on landfall, 6"-8" of rain in New Jersey (NY Central Park got 4.45" in 4 hours). Winds have decreased but high rainfall totals likely to continue. Storm surges not causing much damage as mostly coinciding with low tide.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/08/tropical-storm-henri-slides-into-new-england-as-prodigious-rainmaker/

I was watching that Barry Manilow concert live on CNN last night when it happened! The crowd was very well behaved and no panic at all. But it was an older respectable crowd and they all left calmly 

 

Of course there was no panic. I'm sure they were just relieved that their trauma had come to an end. A hurricane can hardly hold any fear for people who have managed to withstand a Barry Manilow concert. 

 

Of course there was no panic. I'm sure they were just relieved that their trauma had come to an end. A hurricane can hardly hold any fear for people who have managed to withstand a Barry Manilow concert. 

Henri now dumping a mere couple of inches of rain on Nova Scotia. In the end New York had over 8".

Not one but three potential TS/Hurricane developments in the Atlantic, two of which might well disturb our weather in a week or so.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php

Ex-hurricane Linda in the Pacific still organised enough to give the Hawaiian islands ca 8" of rain.

Almost all NWP now unanimously favor a significant uptick in North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the next week and beyond as a large and impressively amplified CCKW moves into the basin.
This passage coincides with peak climatology as well.
🌀🌀🌀 inbound! pic.twitter.com/oRTrX0ROfE

— KeviShader (@KeviShader) August 24, 2021

Anyone spot it?

t+144

Anyone spot it?

 

t+144

I’m assuming that is the development of the current disturbance over the SW Carribean.

 

I’m assuming that is the development of the current disturbance over the SW Carribean.

Better view

Anyone spot it?

I think it may be the one referred to in #253 in the Model Output discussion. 

There's a more likely candidate than that from the Caribbean mentioned in #49 above IMO - see   https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php now updated showing formation almost in situ

A quick look this morning shows three disturbances of concern

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

one winding up in middle N Atlantic but not moving very far, one in the Caribbean heading eventually for Texas, and a weaker one 9but with potential to develop later) in mid Atlantic off Africa

Here it is - could make landfall as a major hurricane as well:

Worth keeping an eye on this one as the SST's in the gulf are quite warm

Here it is - could make landfall as a major hurricane as well:

Worth keeping an eye on this one as the SST's in the gulf are quite warm

Yes, that system is definitely worth keeping a close eye on.

We saw last year the models consistently underestimate the rapid intensification of these systems. Ida should be the same as it has a clear run now until landfall

The other two disturbances I mentioned yesterday are also worth watching from the UK point of view. Both are headed N /NE in mid Atlantic, and while they should die down before reaching us, they could shake up the N Atlantic weather patterns