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Offline Stormchaser  
#41 Posted : 10 January 2021 22:00:45(UTC)
Stormchaser

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Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,076
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Location: West Hants

I've since confirmed that GW's stats were awry - probably is a comparison with historical mean max CET as you say.

Means for the opening 10 days provisionally place 2021 near the bottom of a long list of years since 1772 that were 1°C or below:

1814: -2.97°C
1795: -2.59°C
1820: -2.48°C
1789: -2.19°C
1864: -2.09°C
1861: -2.00°C
1841: -1.95°C
1893: -1.93°C
2010: -1.90°C
1894: -1.79°C
1811: -1.78°C
1777: -1.45°C
1879: -1.19°C
1774: -1.05°C
1891: -1.05°C
1941: -0.77°C
1784: -0.68°C
1997: -0.65°C
1963: -0.57°C
1780: -0.56°C
1887: -0.43°C
1979: -0.40°C
2009: -0.37°C
1842: -0.31°C
1802: -0.30°C
1794: -0.14°C
1850: -0.12°C
1868: -0.11°C
1799: -0.09°C

1895: 0.01°C
1985: 0.07°C
1786: 0.09°C
1970: 0.22°C
1871: 0.27°C
1778: 0.27°C
1854: 0.29°C
1931: 0.34°C
1867: 0.42°C
1815: 0.55°C
1849: 0.58°C
1918: 0.66°C
1773: 0.66°C
1908: 0.67°C
1835: 0.71°C
1921: 0.75°C
1967: 0.81°C
1833: 0.87°C
2021: 0.90°C
1940: 1.00°C

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline Darren S  
#42 Posted : 10 January 2021 22:24:47(UTC)
Darren S

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Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,633
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United Kingdom
Location: Crowthorne, Berks

Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread Go to Quoted Post
GW I must say am a little surprised that the CET was as high as that for the first ten days of 2010.

He edited the "since 1893" bit out of his post, so it looks like that wasn't true as others have suggested.

Certainly here, not only have we not had a single flake of snow this month, and only one visible hoar frost, but the lowest temperature has only been -2.3C (last night) and the lowest maximum wasn't an ice day (+0.5C, on the 7th January). Still has been a notable cold spell, but only memorable for the facts and figures, and not for what's outside the window. 

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berkshire Winter 2021/2: Snow Days: 4 Snow Cover Days: 1 Current Depth: 0 cm Max Depth: 1 cm Total Depth: 1 cm

Arborfield Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Online Bolty  
#43 Posted : 10 January 2021 22:25:00(UTC)
Bolty

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC)
Posts: 4,861
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Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m

That makes more sense. Whilst this January has been cold-feeling so far, it seemed a bit too stange for it to be colder than months like 2010 and 1979 etc.
Scott

Blackrod, Lancashire (4 miles south of Chorley) at 156m asl.

My weather station

Offline Darren S  
#44 Posted : 10 January 2021 22:29:57(UTC)
Darren S

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC)
Posts: 12,633
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Crowthorne, Berks

According to this link: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetdl1772on.dat

CET First 10 days of January 2010: -1.90C

CET First 10 days of January 1979: -0.45C

CET First 10 days of January 1963: -0.57C

Damn, Stormchaser beat me to it!

Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

South Berkshire Winter 2021/2: Snow Days: 4 Snow Cover Days: 1 Current Depth: 0 cm Max Depth: 1 cm Total Depth: 1 cm

Arborfield Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

Offline Spring Sun Winter Dread  
#45 Posted : 10 January 2021 23:31:27(UTC)
Spring Sun Winter Dread

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 01/01/2016(UTC)
Posts: 238
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Aylesbury, Bucks

Even so there's been only 4 colder starts to Jan since 1979.

That's quite something

Offline ARTzeman  
#46 Posted : 11 January 2021 11:22:36(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
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Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Ofice Hadley      1.2c      Anomaly     -2.4c  Provisional to 10th

Metcheck                  1.37c    Anomaly     -2.79c

Netweather               1.71c    Anomaly     -2.5c

Peasedown St John   1.3c     Anomaly     -3.6c

 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#47 Posted : 12 January 2021 10:45:27(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      1.6c     Anomaly     -2.0c   Provisional to 1th

Metcheck                   1.85c   Anomaly     -2.30c

Netweather                2.16c   Anomaly    -2.05c

Peasedown St John   1.8c     Anomaly    -3.1c.     

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Online Bertwhistle  
#48 Posted : 12 January 2021 17:30:44(UTC)
Bertwhistle

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC)
Posts: 6,866
Location: Central Southern England

Thanks for that detail James. Amazing, in fact, to see 1940's first 10 so far down the table.

Reminds us again how the whole pattern can shift- edit: 1987 too.

I guess we'll be above 2 in a day or so, but if the models keep showing the same scene (although there are hiccups possibly developing) we could drop to close to zero by month's end. That would be an interesting start to the 2021 profile.

Edited by user 12 January 2021 17:32:12(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Bertie, Itchen Valley.

August 2020: best heatwave since '95

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#49 Posted : 12 January 2021 21:01:21(UTC)
Ally Pally Snowman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 04/01/2012(UTC)
Posts: 9,296
Man
United Kingdom
Location: Bishop's Stortford, Hertfordshire

This makes more sense . Very rare for GW to get it wrong though.

 

Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Offline ARTzeman  
#50 Posted : 13 January 2021 10:52:55(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        1.9c       Anomaly      -1.7c Provisional to 12th

Metcheck                      1.87c    Anomaly      -2.28c

Netweather                   2.42c    Anomaly      -1.79c

Peasedown St John     2.3c      Anomaly       -2.6c.                  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#51 Posted : 14 January 2021 10:41:43(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        2.1c       Anomaly      -1.4c provisional to 13th

Metcheck                     2.06c     Anomaly      -2.10c

Netweather                  2.59c     Anomaly      -1.62c

Peasedown St John     2.95c     Anomaly      -1.95c. 

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#52 Posted : 15 January 2021 10:57:58(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley. 2•3c. Anomaly -1•2°c Provisional to 14th.
Metcheck. 1.91c Anomaly. -2.16c
Netweather 2.71c. Anomaly -1.5c
Peasedown St John. 3.1c. Anomaly. -1.8c.

Edited by user 15 January 2021 12:33:14(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Stormchaser  
#53 Posted : 15 January 2021 11:21:50(UTC)
Stormchaser

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 24/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 12,076
Man
Location: West Hants

Where on Earth will the CET go during the final third of the month?

The outlook is almost binary; south-shifted Atlantic storms look to scoop up some exceptionally mild air ahead of them which then clashes with cold polar air along a boundary that looks likely to waver near or across the UK.

The CET zone could see numerous bouts of snowfall with temperatures becoming very cold as feedbacks kick in.

OR it could be bathed in air capable of lifting temperatures toward the mid-teens!


...or perhaps it will be a wild mix of the two. Some runs are managing that, with temperatures oscillating rapidly between freezing and balmy.

 

Potential for a strong month mean temperature gradient between the CET zone and the far south of England; even as of 14th there's close to a whole degree Celsius of difference between the CET and my local mean.

If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com :)

Homeland: Rural Mid-West Hants nearly 10 miles S of Salisbury (near Fordingbridge). More insights: https://twitter.com/peacockreports

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Offline ARTzeman  
#54 Posted : 16 January 2021 10:54:40(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley        2.3c      Anomaly     -1.2c Provisional to 15th

Metcheck                     1.93c    Anomaly     -2.23c

Netweather                  2.59c    Anomaly     -1.62c

Peasedown St John     2.65c    Anomaly      -2.23c.      

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline AlvinMeister  
#55 Posted : 16 January 2021 12:58:03(UTC)
AlvinMeister

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 11/07/2006(UTC)
Posts: 921
Man
Location: Salford, Manchester

Would be galling for this month to be substantially below average, wet but snowless!
Offline ARTzeman  
#56 Posted : 17 January 2021 11:00:35(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley         2.4c      Anomaly     -1.1c provisional to 1th

Metcheck                      2.17c    Anomaly      -2.02c

Netweather                   2.76c    Anomaly      -1.45c

Peasedown St John     3.2c       Anomaly       -1.7c

 

The local area of 8 stations  2.88c.

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#57 Posted : 18 January 2021 10:55:06(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley       2.6c       Anomaly      -0.9c Provisional to 17th

Metcheck                    2.4c       Anomaly      -1.92c

Netweather                 2.9c       Anomaly      -1.31c

Peasedown St John    3.3c      Anomaly       -1.6c  

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline ARTzeman  
#58 Posted : 19 January 2021 10:52:30(UTC)
ARTzeman

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC)
Posts: 30,201
Man
Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset

Met Office Hadley      2.8c     Anomaly    -0.7c Provisional to 18th

Metcheck                   2.52c   Anomaly    -1.63c

Netweather                3.04c   Anomaly    -1.17c

Peasedown St John   3.65c   Anomaly    -1.25c.     

Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Offline Global Warming  
#59 Posted : 19 January 2021 21:13:11(UTC)
Global Warming

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC)
Posts: 6,714
United Kingdom
Location: Chineham, Basingstoke

Sorry for the confusion on the data about the early days of this month. I was incorrectly looking at the maximum data.

Here is the latest CET tracker. We are in a brief milder spell before it turns cold again at the end of the week. The final 6 days of the month are looking warm though. That could be enough to bring the CET up to 3.77C. Currently my estimate is running more than 0.4C below Hadley so there could be a large downward correction this month. Could be the coldest month since Feb 2018.

Chart 1

Chart 2

Chineham, Basingstoke, Hampshire, 89m asl

Live weather data: https://www.weatherlink....2-4760-be27-6cc9a5a1fc4c

Offline Caz  
#60 Posted : 20 January 2021 06:36:24(UTC)
Caz

Rank: Advanced Member

Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC)
Posts: 23,892
Woman
United Kingdom
Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands

I’m reasonably happy with my 3.2c guess but I am wondering if I should have stuck with my original thoughts of 2.3c.  I have a feeling the month will end somewhere in between. 

Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

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