I wonder how many LRF are going to change pretty soon,if the current output continues.

I admire your optimism given your location. :)

 

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I admire your commitment to giving upbeat views but you’re being a tad premature as the charts only get to mid-month at the moment.

Yes; understand why thoughts might go that way. but best wait a while for the longer call, given the MetO longer view.

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Pretty quiet in here this evening. Probably because the Pub run is not delivering. On to tomorrow.

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Pretty quiet in here this evening. Probably because the Pub run is not delivering. On to tomorrow.

No, that is actually incorrect. It (the 18z GFS operational run) is a very similar pattern to other output so far. The details, as expected at the time of interest day 9 or so, will change with each run.

Here is Election Day:

 

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No, that is actually incorrect. It (the 18z GFS operational run) is a very similar pattern to other output so far. The details, as expected at the time of interest day 9 or so, will change with each run.

Fair comment. Was slightly knee jerk on my part, but some differences but nothing major at the moment.

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Looks interesting to me Mooms:

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU18_213_1.png 

The small changes in details at this range willlead to the previous run’s snowmageddon turning into a a drizzle fest or dry cool conditions on the next run etc. I would nit focus on any specifics at this range and, in addition, continual tweaks could leave us wondering what the fuss was about in a few days time!

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The small changes in details at this range willlead to the previous run’s snowmageddon turning into a a drizzle fest or dry cool conditions on the next run etc. I would nit focus on any specifics at this range and, in addition, continual tweaks could leave us wondering what the fuss was about in a few days time!

History dictates this is the likely outcome.

It should really be engrained into the ‘pyschi’ of even the most fervent model fanatic that taking a couple of OP runs in isolation of its ensemble is often bad for your health.

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Widespread snow is so flipping rare before Christmas. We were utterly spoiled 9 and 10 years ago I fear those memories will remain never equalled.

I’m taking the current output as entertainment and nothing more. As long as it’s dry for a while longer I’ll be happier.

 

edit: this pub run is an absolute sh** show. Look at the difference between 252 and 264

 

History dictates this is the likely outcome.

It should really be engrained into the ‘pyschi’ of even the most fervent model fanatic that taking a couple of OP runs in isolation of its ensemble is often bad for your health.

Quite. Even the stellar runs looks marginal for southerners. 

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Widespread snow is so flipping rare before Christmas. We were utterly spoiled 9 and 10 years ago I fear those memories will remain never equalled.

I’m taking the current output as entertainment and nothing more. As long as it’s dry for a while longer I’ll be happier.

 

edit: this pub run is an absolute sh** show. Look at the difference between 252 and 264

Maybe, although I imagine that those people who were here to experience December 1981 said broadly the same thing for years afterwards.

Back in the autumn of 2010 I for one didn't envisage that heavy & widespread snow would strike again before Xmas virtually nationwide and at an even earlier time than it did in 2009, but that's exactly what happened. Before 2009 the odds on a lengthy cold and snowy spell commencing just before and then lasting right through the festive season must have been pretty long; the odds on a month-long freeze happening for a second year in succession must have been even greater.

If we had believed what a certain individual who posts on this forum was trying to tell us a decade or so ago about such severe and long-lasting cold spells being a thing of a past and that, in his view, they couldn't happen again under any circumstances, this thread would be like a ghost town in the winter months.

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Quite. Even the stellar runs looks marginal for southerners. 

Yup, not even enough to raise an eyebrow for me!

I look for several indicators, bearing in mind I'm looking for proper snow down here, rather than a sleety shower for a few minutes:

• Ice days


• -10C at 850 (which gives wriggle room for the inevitable downgrade)


• A 50th percentile chance of snow on the ground on EPS

Taking the latest EPS, 1 of 52 members shows an ice day for London, none show -10C 850s and the 50th percentile is for no snow. Figures from weather.us.

GEFS, on the other hand, has a few ice days in the last 4 runs, one member (out of 88) getting to -10C at 850 and snow chance wise (as opposed to snow on the ground wise), averaged across the 4 runs, no higher than 15%. Figures from Meteociel, which allows you to superimpose the last 4 GEFS runs.

 

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Not impressed this morning , GFS backing down from its recent extremes - very early days of Winter though

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No complaints about the GFS either the 18z or 00z. Yes both are showing no snow for southern UK except maybe if you live on a high moor, however it’s winter weather with a cool flow that will give some gales and rain as well as hail showers and a raw sit by the fire feel.
As a added bonus it wouldn’t take much for it to turn very wintery.

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Based on the overnight GEFS I'll stick to what I said the other day. Flooding could be the main weather concern in the approach to Chrimbo.

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My wife told me yesterday that her friends were saying it’s going to snow next week. Don’t know where that idea came from but I had to say it was one computer model and it was extremely unlikely to happen. Not sure she believed me but never mind. I blame the phone app showing a snow symbol for next Thursday. (Back to rain now of course!)

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Reading the comments in this thread in the run up to winter is like having food poisoning.

Every time you think it's safe to get up out of bed it starts all over again.  Up and down up and down.  Four months or more  of it so.

There is a huge difference in'really really' wanting something so badly, and reality.

I do not have the Model reading skills and expertise of most of the guys in here, but what is the point if they are treated like antibiotics in the far east ? 

 

Seasons greetings.

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Surely The Express wasn’t a little premature with it’s forecast of blizzards on Election Day? It’s normally so reasoned and reserved.

To me the outlook can be summed up in the well-used phrase: changeable. Wet, windy, a quieter day, mountain snow. Much like the UKM extended text in fact.

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My wife told me yesterday that her friends were saying it’s going to snow next week. Don’t know where that idea came from but I had to say it was one computer model and it was extremely unlikely to happen. Not sure she believed me but never mind. I blame the phone app showing a snow symbol for next Thursday. (Back to rain now of course!)

It is completely my fault Rob - I was foolish enough to tell my wife that it was going to turn wintry next week based on the MO from yesterday - naturally, it jinxed it completely. Should have enough model output scars on my back to avoid that by now - so sorry.

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Surely The Express wasn’t a little premature with it’s forecast of blizzards on Election Day? It’s normally so reasoned and reserved.

To me the outlook can be summed up in the well-used phrase: changeable. Wet, windy, a quieter day, mountain snow. Much like the UKM extended text in fact.

Yes, and that’s been the underlying theme for about a week now: cool to cold zonality with no reliable sign of blocking.

As for the Express, perhaps they were lining up “Johnson landslide thwarted by blizzards”.

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