Met Office Hadley          16.9c.      Anomaly    1.0c. Provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                       16.55c     Anomaly    0.33c

Netweather                    17.21c     Anomaly    1.02c

Mean of my 10 stations    17.5c     Anomaly     0.69c.      

On the way up again; 17.0 to the 23rd, prov.

It will end up Somewhere around 17.0 after adjustments, some output indicates.

You've had a very good Summer when you get the CET for July and August in the 17's IMO. 

Not a classic (that would be to get at least one 18C+) but very good...

Late Post Today.

Met Office Hadley         17.0c.         Anomaly        1.1c. Provisional to 23rd.

Metcheck                      16.70c        Anomaly        0.48c

Netweather                   17.3c          Anomaly        1.11c

Mean Of My 10 Stations   17.36c       Anomaly        0.9c.         

Met Office Hadley           17.1c.        Anomaly          1.2c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                        16.78c       Anomaly          0.55c

Netweather                     17.42c       Anomaly          1.23c.

Mean Of Mine                  17.25c       Anomaly          0.79c 

Met Office Hadley          17.3c       Anomaly       1.4c    Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                       16.98c     Anomaly       0.75c

Netweather                    17.6c       Anomaly       1.41c

Mean Of Mine                 17.5c       Anomaly       0.96c.          

Met Office Hadley           17.4c.       Anomaly        1.5c. Provisional to 26th.

Metcheck                        17.14c      Anomaly        0.92c

Netweather                     17.75c      Anomaly        1.54c

My Mean Only                  17.7c       Anomaly        1.24c.  

 

Using the FV3 06z and allowing for known bias, a finish between 16.8*C & 17.2*C is suggested.

This is one of the warmest operational model runs of late, but fits well with the recent trend as the models sniff out the shift of the mid-latitude pattern in response to the tropical changes.

Also, the upward bias adjustment I've applied is on the cautious side; just 0.5*C to the CET for each day. It's quite possible, but not clearly proven (as far as I know...) that the true bias is at least twice that size.

Your projections from 12th look to be on track- possibly (hopefully) at the higher end of your range. TBF, the range is only 0.4. So this is an interesting early prognosis and makes me curious as to the 'FV3'. Your insight into the ML responses to tropical changes is also interesting. I will read on...

Hi all, couldn’t resist popping on here for a quick look before going out to dinner, as I’ve heard you’ve had another heatwave back home.  I see my 17c is looking too low!  Low to mid 30’s here in Jamaica but at least our hotel room has air con to escape to. 

17.5°C provisional to 27th. 4 days to lower it again. 

Cooler nights will make a difference to the CET over the last few days.

Met Office Hadley               17.5c        Anomaly       1.6c. Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                            17.28c      Anomaly        1.05c

Netweather                         17.85c      Anomaly        1.66c

PSJ                                     17.75c      Anomaly        1.24c.

Hi all, couldn’t resist popping on here for a quick look before going out to dinner, as I’ve heard you’ve had another heatwave back home.  I see my 17c is looking too low!  Low to mid 30’s here in Jamaica but at least our hotel room has air con to escape to. 

I think you will be pretty close to be honest. There is expected to be a downgrade of 0.4C or so.

Met Office Hadley            17.5c.         Anomaly       1.6c.   Provisional  to  28th.

Metcheck                         17.18c        Anomaly       0.96c

Netweather                      17.84c        Anomaly       1.65c

PSJ  Average                    17.46.         Anomaly       1.0c.          

Equal lowest CET minimum last night for the month (9.8°C). Expect CET today to be propped up a bit by Rothamsted but even with an 18 degree day the mean would be about 14. Three and a half degrees down on the current mean for the month, at nearly 30 days, should drop it only by about 0.1. Repeat that for Friday and Saturday and we're down to a 17.2 pre-downjustment. That makes 17 look very favourable, but it could be lower (someone suggested as much as .4) and it's likely that Friday night could be milder. Still on the edge of my seat here, I can tell you.

Equal lowest CET minimum last night for the month (9.8°C). Expect CET today to be propped up a bit by Rothamsted but even with an 18 degree day the mean would be about 14. Three and a half degrees down on the current mean for the month, at nearly 30 days, should drop it only by about 0.1. Repeat that for Friday and Saturday and we're down to a 17.2 pre-downjustment. That makes 17 look very favourable, but it could be lower (someone suggested as much as .4) and it's likely that Friday night could be milder. Still on the edge of my seat here, I can tell you.

So am I, I have my lead to preserve :)

 

So am I, I have my lead to preserve :)

Meanwhile, I’m currently sitting out an amazing late afternoon tropical thunder storm!  We’re six hours behind UK time.  

Met Office Hadley           17.4c.        Anomaly      1.6c. Provisional to 29th.

Metcheck                        17.16c       Anomaly      0.94c

Netweather                     17.77c       Anomaly      1.58c

PSJ Average                    17.6c         Anomaly      0.81c. 

Another warm night last night (14.4) will prop it up for another day at least, and certainly 2 of the 3 stations in the triangle are looking mild and the third certainly not cool. Chances in the 16.9 to 17.2 range after adjustments I suspect.

Met check running at 17·19c this morning.