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Offline TimS  
#121 Posted : 21 July 2019 20:13:22(UTC)
TimS

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Location: Brockley

Manston could get some unusually hot numbers in that setup too, despite being close to the sea on 3 sides.

Others to watch: Mildenhall, City Airport, Headcorn.

Will be such an anticlimax if the cold front moves through on Thursday morning and Lakenheath or Norwich squeezes a 31C.
Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Online Retron  
#122 Posted : 22 July 2019 03:15:36(UTC)
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It's fascinating (from a nerdy point of view) just how poorly the ensembles are coping with the potential very hot conditions on Thursday. ECM, for example, shows this IMBY:



The maximum from the 51 members is 31.1C, but the op has 35.6C - not just slightly warmer, but a massive outlier. However, given the noises from the Met Office (their text forecast goes for 33C in the SE tomorrow as a high, for example), it's clearly not thought unusual.


The GEFS also has an "outside the pack" forecast, albeit to a lesser magnitude than ECM.


Generally the ensembles offer excellent guidance, but it seems their resolution isn't as high as it could be, hence small pockets of extremely high (or low) temperatures can get missed.

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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#123 Posted : 22 July 2019 04:51:45(UTC)
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Arpege max temps this week 0z run


Monday 30c, Tuesday 33c, Wednesday 36c, Thursday 36c


 


Wednesday has 36c in Norfolk area but Thursday has 36c quite widely in the SE and EA so 37 likely somewhere.


 

Edited by user 22 July 2019 04:55:03(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Online DEW  
#124 Posted : 22 July 2019 05:42:47(UTC)
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I'm not sure I'd want to be a forecaster this week - the models generally are showing the maximum heat streaming northwards through the Netherlands and up into Scandi whil LP from the Atlantic pushes uncertainly in from the west. A bit more push from the Atlantic and the heat wave vanishes; a bit less and the UK will have 30-35C widely.


Top chart for heat on Thursday seems to be Arpege (see Ally above); worst  is the fax chart with a well developed depression in the SW and fronts across the south implying storms and much lower temps. One must also be careful not to be too SE-centric; ICON and Arpege both show temps over Cornwall/W Wales/NI some 10-15C lower than East Anglia.

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Offline Brian Gaze  
#125 Posted : 22 July 2019 05:58:38(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Retron Go to Quoted Post


Generally the ensembles offer excellent guidance, but it seems their resolution isn't as high as it could be, hence small pockets of extremely high (or low) temperatures can get missed.



It's an odd one because their resolution is similar to the ops of a few years ago. I don't recall the ops back then undershooting temps so dramatically. On a slightly different note I have come to trust the Arpege temperature forecasts more than most other models. I was initially sceptical of the high values it often churns out but they are often a lot closer to the mark than GFS.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Offline Chunky Pea  
#126 Posted : 22 July 2019 06:25:31(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Brian Gaze Go to Quoted Post


 


It's an odd one because their resolution is similar to the ops of a few years ago. I don't recall the ops back then undershooting temps so dramatically. On a slightly different note I have come to trust the Arpege temperature forecasts more than most other models. I was initially sceptical of the high values it often churns out but they are often a lot closer to the mark than GFS.



The 'Harmonie' short range hi res I find tends to be close to the mark regarding temps, though during heatwave conditions, it can go a little over the top at times. Data from this model doesn't seem to be readily available but you can get Meteograms (which also shows range of spread) for major towns and cities across N. Europe c/o the Dutch Met Office (DMI) 


This page is set to London:


https://www.dmi.dk/lokation/show/GB/2643743/London/


 


Any data from 3 days onwards is from the ECMWF. 


 


*That should read the 'Danish' met office... slow on the uptake this morn. 


 


 


 

Edited by user 22 July 2019 06:49:58(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

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Offline TimS  
#127 Posted : 22 July 2019 06:56:10(UTC)
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I think Arôme is the best for localised max temps, but sadly only goes out a couple of days due to its very high resolution.
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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#128 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:06:36(UTC)
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ECM has another mini plume day 8/9 15c 850s into the SE again. The heat in Europe is astonishing and doesn't seem to be going anywhere out to day 10 at least. So more extreme heat for the UK is probably likely if we can get the right set up again.

Offline Whether Idle  
#129 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:09:52(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: TimS Go to Quoted Post
I think Arôme is the best for localised max temps, but sadly only goes out a couple of days due to its very high resolution.


ECM is excellent: see here: (this is for Kent, but any county can be selected)


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/118f9c5ed1e62f483b855b82b158f827/temperature/20190725-1600z.html


 

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Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#130 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:12:03(UTC)
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ECM temps for Thursday 36c for London,  37c Kent, 38c again for Gravesend area. 


 Remember you can normally add 1c to 3c to these for the UK max! Yesterday being a case in point ECM was no higher than 22c for the SE.  UK max 25.2c in Writtle.


 

Edited by user 22 July 2019 07:20:24(UTC)  | Reason: Not specified

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#131 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:18:33(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post


ECM temps for Thursday 36c for London,  37c Kent, 38c again for Gravesend area. 


 Remember you can normally add 1c to 3c to these for the UK max!


 



Its just astonishing. I really hope we at least get the July record. But it would be wonderful to get the UK record as well.

Mark
Stratford, London
Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#132 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:22:57(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post


 


Its just astonishing. I really hope we at least get the July record. But it would be wonderful to get the UK record as well.



 


Personally I think we will just fall short of the all time record. I think the July record is definitely on though. My punt something like 37.5c.


 

Offline Brian Gaze  
#133 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:23:55(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Ally Pally Snowman Go to Quoted Post


ECM has another mini plume day 8/9 15c 850s into the SE again. The heat in Europe is astonishing and doesn't seem to be going anywhere out to day 10 at least. So more extreme heat for the UK is probably likely if we can get the right set up again.



Some sort of reload is appearing the  GEFS too. I don't think summer is done with us yet.

Brian Gaze
Berkhamsted
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Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#134 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:27:34(UTC)
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Iphone app now showing 37C for Thursday

Mark
Stratford, London
Offline Gandalf The White  
#135 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:29:01(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post


 


Its just astonishing. I really hope we at least get the July record. But it would be wonderful to get the UK record as well.



I find it astonishing but a little worrying at the same time.  The increasing frequency of these outbreaks does not bode well for our future.  They are also life-threatening conditions for the vulnerable, just as much as severe cold in winter.

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Offline TimS  
#136 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:34:04(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post


Iphone app now showing 37C for Thursday



Yep, there it is. First time ever.

Brockley, South East London 30m asl
Offline Jiries  
#137 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:35:24(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Whether Idle Go to Quoted Post


 


ECM is excellent: see here: (this is for Kent, but any county can be selected)


https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/118f9c5ed1e62f483b855b82b158f827/temperature/20190725-1600z.html


 



Lower Stoke in around 34C zone and a bit further west in Hoo area is 35C while 33C over Isle of Grain, their hottest temps is only 30C the highest so it might break on Thursday.   Very interesting times ahead.

Offline Ally Pally Snowman  
#138 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:37:54(UTC)
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Arpege has a max of 42c for Belgium on Thursday that's about 4c higher than its all time max. Paris has 43c these are temps that just weren't possible 20/30 years ago.


 

Offline Jiries  
#139 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:38:23(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Heavy Weather 2013 Go to Quoted Post


Iphone app now showing 37C for Thursday



Lower stoke< Kent on app show 35C so the chart shown by Whether Idle is correct for this area just 2 miles from the coast. Big drop to 24C on Friday so I will be at work so right timing for the heatwave to strike while I am off.


 


 

Offline Heavy Weather 2013  
#140 Posted : 22 July 2019 07:42:50(UTC)
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Originally Posted by: Jiries Go to Quoted Post


 


Lower stoke< Kent on app show 35C so the chart shown by Whether Idle is correct for this area just 2 miles from the coast. Big drop to 24C on Friday so I will be at work so right timing for the heatwave to strike while I am off.


 


 



How are you finding you new location Jiries.

Mark
Stratford, London
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