February will end on 6.0C (+2.3C) here.

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To paraphrase Eric Morecambe, ‘the right predictions, but not necessarily in the right order’? 

 

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Even here in Edinburgh which is a lot further north than the CET region and which would therefore be expected to be that bit colder on average as a result, the average temperature across my three local stations in Edinburgh was running at roughly 6.4°C at 10am this morning which is an anomaly of around 2.1°C warmer than average.

The average in this case is the average of the 1981-2010 averages for Edinburgh Gogarbank and the botanic gardens in Edinburgh so that if I was to go by the 1961-1990 averages here in the same way in which the CET temperature anomalies are reported on the Hadley website, our own temperature anomalies here in Edinburgh would be even higher still and unlike the CET, there are no downwards corrections to be applied here.

Yet even my local temperature for here in Edinburgh is still quite a lot higher than what my guess was for this month's CET in this month's competition (I guess, that's what I get for predicting a colder than average winter month which in this day and age, is normally too much to ask for with only a very small handful of exceptions to that rule).

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Is there a March thread yet?

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Met Office Hadley           6.9c       Anomaly       3.2c. Provisional to 27th.

Metcheck                        6.64c     Anomaly       2.44c

Netweather                     6.99c     Anomaly       2.8c

Canvey Island                 7.0c       Anomaly       1.6c

Cheadle Hulme                7.5c       Anomaly       2.49c

Clevedon Weather           8.1c       Anomaly        2.17c

Darwen                          6.6c       Anomaly        1.72c

Hexam                           6.3c       Anomaly        2.09c

Linford                           6.8c       Anomaly        2.11c

Mount Sorrel                   6.5c      Anomaly        1.95c

Forest Town Mansfield      7.5c      Anomaly        3.2c

Peasedown St John         8.6c       Anomaly        4.35c

Treviskey Redruth           8.1c       Anomaly        2.8c

Mean of my 10 with a 6-year average   7.3c   Anomaly  2.75c.             

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Is there a March thread yet?

Funnily enough, I was expecting the March thread to have already been started as well.

However, I'm sure that GW will get round to starting that thread before too long and also, asking for our guesses for March as he does so.

 

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To paraphrase Eric Morecambe, ‘the right predictions, but not necessarily in the right order’? 

I think GW should allow me to post my predictions in these threads before the final date, as they would be a useful guide to others as to what the least likely option is likely to be

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To paraphrase Eric Morecambe, ‘the right predictions, but not necessarily in the right order’? 

 

Slightly spooky Andre Previn died today.

 

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Slightly spooky Andre Previn died today.

 

 

I remembered posting this and felt a bit guilty 😬 

The Finalised figure of 6.74C has been published on the Met Office CET page

We all went too low but marting wins by a country mile with 6.50

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I'm guessing GWs been held up with something as there's no March thread yet.

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Funnily enough, I was expecting the March thread to have already been started as well.

However, I'm sure that GW will get round to starting that thread before too long and also, asking for our guesses for March as he does so.

 

 

Nothing yet...

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The final mean of my 10 stations for February using a 6-year average is  7.35c. Difference 2.8c.

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Final February mean was 7.1 on my weather station. The warmest February I've recorded.

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I'm guessing GWs been held up with something as there's no March thread yet.

I'm assuming the deadline for predictions will still be 23:59 tomorrow??

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I will post the March thread later this evening. Sorry been a busy week.

Deadline will be 23:59 on Sunday evening

Final February CET was 6.74C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2019

February’s winner was of course marting as everyone went too low.

Final February CET was 6.74C

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2019

February’s winner was of course marting as everyone went too low.

In a month such as what what we have just had, I think that anyone would have done really well to get anywhere close to what the final figure actually was but well done to marting anyway for being the closest to that.

I can only hope that my guess for March (which I will submit once GW has started that thread and given his initial analysis for that) will end up being a lot better than the one which I submitted for February which ended up being miles out in the end (I don't think that it would be possible after all, to do much worse than that).

 

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We did smash the record for the highest maximum CET in February (records going back to 1878).

Max CET for February 2019 was 11.3C

Previous highest was 10.7C in 1998.

There have only been 4 years before this year where the February max CET was above 10C. All bar one of these have occurred since 1990.

 

If we look at the highest maximum CET records by month, 9 of the 12 monthly records as well as the annual record have all been set since 1992. 

In terms of the winter CET the final figure is 5.87C per Hadley

That makes 2018/19 the 17th warmest winter in the 360 year series