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It has the potential to be a classic snow event, with an occluded trough moving into a very cold continental airmass, with cold Pm air following behind. What we don't want is for the trough to stall too far west or weaken too much. Nirvana would be for it to stall somewhere over the eastern half (IMBY).
Agree the extent of the snow penetrating eastwards is a ? mark. Too far out to call accurately at this stage and probably best left to the day before.
Be interesting to see how the GFS does at handling the trough disruption during the upcoming setup - a few years ago it was woeful and kept collapsing the pattern and introducing mild air, which never came.
It doesn't seem to be doing that this time and the 6z ens are, a blip aside chilly or cold throughout with the mean never getting warmer than -2/-3 at 850 level
Whether my daughter gets to use the sledge we bought her 2-3 years ago is debateable but it's looking more likely than the last few winters
Brian, From memory they had 7 or perhaps 8 degrees on Saturday and 6c for Monday. I think they are wrong. We have 7c today so if the trend is one of getting colder as they say surely 1c is nothing note worthy. I am speaking about the SE of course.
Brian, From memory they had 7 or perhaps 8 degrees on Saturday and 6c for Monday. I think they are wrong. We have 7c today so if the trend is one of getting colder as they say surely 1c is nothing note worthy.
I am speaking about the SE of course.
BBC? I don't know who provides their forecasts now. What I know is the Met Office weather warnings / snow forecasts in recent weeks have certainly seemed flaky at times and below their usual high standards. This Sat could well be a rain event for most but I continue to think it is worth watching closely.
Dear all, I wish I had more time to post in this forum as I find it so interesting, but, I couldn’t resist the following observation. After the various models took a bit of stick in recent weeks, take a look at comments made by several posters in pages 2 and 3 of this thread (23rd Jan - the Met Office Fire) and review comments made about what the models were showing (ECM at 10 days) and some of the GFS suite at 10 days plus. Now take a look at the 1-5 day output and draw your own conclusions on model capability to estimate (roughly) the synoptic set up between 1 and 2 weeks away when we focus on trends in sequential runs, and the GFS suite, not single GFS Op runs. Jeff
Good point made Jeff; in fact, look back at the opening post from Brian, and its associated snow row. Who'd have thought we'd see the numbers we do now? This is just one small example, of course, that backs up your point.
Met Office are supplying data for BBC forecasts till March 2018. Quite possibly longer if Meteogroup are still not ready.
Raw output for the SE suggests about 4C on Saturday (5C in London) and 3C on Monday (4C in London).
The same raw output that feeds the Weather Channel app suggests a mean temperature next week (Mon to Fri) at or below zero here, with highs of between 2C and 3C and lows between -2C and -4C.
Plenty of interest going forward. Here's a static snapshot of the GEFS12z.
Following on from Bertwistle's post, here's that ensemble from the first page. The control run from Feb 1st on that chart is actually uncannily similar to the shape of the current ensemble mean, just a few hours early with the cold plunge
Raw output for the SE suggests about 4C on Saturday (5C in London) and 3C on Monday (4C in London).The same raw output that feeds the Weather Channel app suggests a mean temperature next week (Mon to Fri) at or below zero here, with highs of between 2C and 3C and lows between -2C and -4C.
Brian,
Correct it was the BBC forecast. I have no idea why you would mention that it will be getting colder and then present temperatures which are same or 1 degree higher then what we have today. It really confuses me and annoys me as well.
Ever since they invested in that 100m computer their forecasts have got worse as far as I am concerned.
Brian, Correct it was the BBC forecast. I have no idea why you would mention that it will be getting colder and then present temperatures which are same or 1 degree higher then what we have today. It really confuses me and annoys me as well. Ever since they invested in that 100m computer their forecasts have got worse as far as I am concerned.
Here are the DWD ICON 6z max (like GFS they provide max and min temps for each timestep) temps for Sat.
Wrt Beeb forecasts my bone of contention is their propensity to zoom in on shower activity. It is farcical IMO and they would be better off going back to shower icons over areas rather than displaying raw model output.
Here are the DWD ICON 6z max (like GFS they provide max and min temps for each timestep) temps for Sat.Wrt Beeb forecasts my bone of contention is their propensity to zoom in on shower activity. It is farcical IMO and they would be better off going back to shower icons over areas rather than displaying raw model output.
Looks good for Buxton and similar places along the Pennine/Peak District spine but cold sleet or rain for others. Time for upgrades though.
iPhone
I don't think they are similar at all Rob; the consistency aside, as TBF we are now at T+0, the key differences are that between about the 4th and 7th, every member is below -5 at 850. The previous prediction had the majority of members around or above zero. The op hovered around the LTM and the control, whilst not exactly an outlier, sat in a loose pack with no clustering. All the clustering was >zero. The main message (apart from degree of certainty, given the different timescales) is that things looked normal or mild, quite clearly, on balance. They certainly don't today.