Not really because Saturday will be wet with average temps

Thats a bold statement, when not one run in the GEFS ens goes anywhere near the 30 year average (850 temps) until ~ 7th Feb:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=801

 

 

Not really because Saturday will be wet with average temps

Average daytime maximum temperature v forecast for Saturday:

London        8C  v  3C

Birmingham  6C  v  4C

Manchester   7C  v  3C

 

 

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Average daytime maximum temperature v forecast for Saturday:

London        8C  v  3C

Birmingham  6C  v  4C

Manchester   7C  v  3C

 

 

 

Sorry you have broken the rules......do not back up statements with data tut tut

Average daytime maximum temperature v forecast for Saturday:

London        8C  v  3C

Birmingham  6C  v  4C

Manchester   7C  v  3C

LOL - Yes the original assertion was complete nonsense! 

 

 

Not really because Saturday will be wet with average temps

I think Saturday even with temps as high as 4 in places will feel far from average.  No sun all day for most places, cold wind. with a decetn shot at a surprise snowfall or two.

 

Indeed this marks a good transitional start to a potentially potent cold spell.

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Average daytime maximum temperature v forecast for Saturday:

London        8C  v  3C

Birmingham  6C  v  4C

Manchester   7C  v  3C

 

 

Indeed, I think Ian is being a bit mischievous there. Of course the projected temps may well be wrong but going of the current data temps will be several degrees below the monthly average.

We are facing probably our best prospect of widespread wintry weather in years... with the chances of snow on snow events for quite a wide area of the country.  Theres a real chance that this Cold air could lock in and be topped up.  

 

The GEFS are probably the lowest ive seen them - on a grouped scale - for the extended period that they are.

 

A word of caution- that we know how fickle our weather is, I hate to ramp.  But you cant deny the below is simple brilliant.

 

This was posted when it was still the 00Z ensemble, but they still look pretty good. The 850s have crept up a tad for Saturday, hopefully they won't do the same for Tuesday.

Still plenty of cold runs right out to the end, too. Run 5 would be  a nice one.

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Such a shame. Winter is over.  

I’ve been away for a while.... and have just returned from cleaning the deckchairs after reading this (and other similar posts).

Has something changed? 

Something must be afoot as Tally has stopped using the frustrated red face man emoticon...(!).

Seriously though,the 1985 re-run is still on table which is good news for cold lovers.

Recently it’s been a bit like reading the forum for my local football club on here! A bit painful to watch at times. Retron’s reasoned and considered analysis is pure class though.

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BBC weather forecast at 13.30 just confirm snow risk for Tuesday of next week. This is the first time I have seen this.

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Indeed, I think Ian is being a bit mischievous there. Of course the projected temps may well be wrong but going of the current data temps will be several degrees below the monthly average.

Only a bit?

I had a word starting with 't' in mind, rather than 'm'.

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Thats a bold statement, when not one run in the GEFS ens goes anywhere near the 30 year average (850 temps) until ~ 7th Feb:

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850london0.png?cb=801

Seems fair to me bbc weather lastnight stated cold rain for many on Saturday with snow over the likes of the pennines

BBC weather forecast at 13.30 just confirm snow risk for Tuesday of next week. This is the first time I have seen this.

I'm more interested in the possibilities this Saturday because it is nearer.

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Saturday looks very marginal, think it will require some heavy precipitation arriving at the right time to turn places white. Otherwise could be 2-3c with light rain and sleet. The model output I have seen support these type of temperatures rather than the 0 -1C you would ideally like.

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BBC weather forecast at 13.30 just confirm snow risk for Tuesday of next week. This is the first time I have seen this.

It has the potential to be a classic snow event, with an occluded trough moving into a very cold continental airmass, with cold Pm air following behind. What we don't want is for the trough to stall too far west or weaken too much.  Nirvana would be for it to stall somewhere over the eastern half (IMBY).

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Saturday looks very marginal, think it will require some heavy precipitation arriving at the right time to turn places white. Otherwise could be 2-3c with light rain and sleet. The model output I have seen support these type of temperatures rather than the 0 -1C you would ideally like.

Absolutely but a bird in the hand is worth three in the bush (adapted for UK snow). 

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Dear all, I wish I had more time to post in this forum as I find it so interesting, but, I couldn’t resist the following observation.

After the various models took a bit of stick in recent weeks, take a look at comments made by several posters in pages 2 and 3 of this thread (23rd Jan - the Met Office Fire) and review comments made about what the models were showing (ECM at 10 days) and some of the GFS suite at 10 days plus. Now take a look at the 1-5 day output and draw your own conclusions on model capability to estimate (roughly) the synoptic set up between 1 and 2 weeks away when we focus on trends in sequential runs, and the GFS suite, not single GFS Op runs.

Jeff

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Only a bit?

I had a word starting with 't' in mind, rather than 'm'.

Me too; but I think you might all have Billy Goat Gruffed him back over the bridge for now.

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I'm more interested in the possibilities this Saturday because it is nearer.

 

Brian, From memory they had 7 or perhaps 8 degrees on Saturday and 6c for Monday. I think they are wrong. We have 7c today so if the trend is one of getting colder as they say surely 1c is nothing note worthy.

 

I am speaking about the SE of course.

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Seems fair to me bbc weather lastnight stated cold rain for many on Saturday with snow over the likes of the pennines

Did the BBC weather say we'd have average temperatures?  That's not what I heard or saw on the charts.

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Dear all, I wish I had more time to post in this forum as I find it so interesting, but, I couldn’t resist the following observation.

After the various models took a bit of stick in recent weeks, take a look at comments made by several posters in pages 2 and 3 of this thread (23rd Jan - the Met Office Fire) and review comments made about what the models were showing (ECM at 10 days) and some of the GFS suite at 10 days plus. Now take a look at the 1-5 day output and draw your own conclusions on model capability to estimate (roughly) the synoptic set up between 1 and 2 weeks away when we focus on trends in sequential runs, and the GFS suite, not single GFS Op runs.

Jeff

Very succinct and spot on.

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