http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU12_126_1.png 

Interesting little low over Denmark

Huge differences in the location of the low pressure even by T108 on the GFS - where 06Z had it moving into Norway, 12Z has it north of Iceland. Not sure what effect that will have down the line.

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Interesting. The GFS now looks alot more like the Meto that was used on last nights Week ahead forecast, with perhaps the Scandi high asserting itself a little more.

the Atlantic starting to look a little blocked in its behaviour despite the lack of presence of a real obvious block.

Could this be the start of something?

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Potentially a very good run... eyes down people!

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Genuinely interesting to see what cold wedge of -10C 850s moving in from the Atlantic.

.

 

 

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How bizarre. You'd never guess from looking at this that the -10C 850hpa isotherm is over the UK.

 

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It is just the UKs luck that we could have -10*C air from the east, -10*c air from the west, and still end up snowless.

Europe takes the mystery prize

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I'm not buying into this absurd pattern imo. I think this is either going to trend towards more of a northwesterly or we will actually end up with that pattern but without the ridiculous wedge of arctic air.

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Looking at the T500s on the NHem makes this a bit easier to understand.

You could almost argue it is the polar vortex. The reason the -10C isotherm is surviving is due to the insane depth of the cold which extends all the way into the stratosphere.

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Its annoying to think that of the say circumference of the earth, there is an area of say 300 mile wide ribbon of air supplying the poles with HP inflating uppers, that the UK is smack bang in the middle of it surrounded by very cold air.

It wont be there on the 18z... but just thought i would point out the irony?

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And jesus christ if it does this for a 2nd time.

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I quite like this picture of the Jetstream hitting the block and just disintegrating into bits.

 

Kinda like a jet engine onto a concrete platform

 

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Those 500hpa temperatures are insane.

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Lovely to look at these nationwide snow charts

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Certainly a snowy run, but the GFS seems to be overdoing how cold the 850s are this week (if you compare tomorrow's on GFS against Arpege, say) so I would take it with a pinch of salt!

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A rather wintry GFS 12z run for northern areas. Were things to verify as shown, I reckon that Scotland and parts of northern England would be lookin at a repeat of the wintry snap a couple of weeks ago.

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I think the interest, once again, is confined to the N with cold W/NW/N winds at times bringing wintry showers and at times, snow to these parts. This has been the pattern by in large for much of the winter.

I never bought into the E'ly which was showing a few days ago and I think it is fair to say that the E'ly risk is diminishing each day - which was always the most likely situation IMHO.

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A rather wintry GFS 12z run for northern areas. Were things to verify as shown, I reckon that Scotland and parts of northern England would be lookin at a repeat of the wintry snap a couple of weeks ago.

 

 

Cosmic

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Such a shame. Winter is over.  (for the south).

 

After tonight's 12z run when the final nail on the latest whiff of an easterly is completely distinguished I shall be taking a one month break from rainbow chasing.

 

I hear you are suffering from "premature 'announciation'" again Steve.

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I hear you are suffering from "premature 'announciation'" again Steve.

Steve is the ultimate, "Reverse Psychologist", WI..

Sun/Mon onwards next week open to further upgrades...