I've added in 5 and 10 day temp anomaly charts. They compare the GFS op to the 1981 - 2010 reanalysis data from NCEP. They are logically correct but I have some reservations. Hopefully they'll be of some use, the direct links are: 

5 day temp anomaly 1981 - 2010

10 day temp anomaly 1981 - 2010

Thanks Brian. That is a very useful addition to your charts.

I have just calculated the latest anomalies for the CET thread and I came up with an anomaly of -0.3C for the next 10 days. That is using data from the Meteogroup app which I understand is derived from the ECM model.

I tried using the site below to estimate the anomaly using GFS data - using Luton AP as a proxy for Rothamsted, Leeds/Bradford as the best available proxy for Stonyhurst and Brize Norton as a proxy for Pershore.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample_C.shtml?text=EGVN/

A bit of a rough and ready calculation but this gave me an anomaly of -0.8C. So a bit higher than ECM but still somewhat less than the -2C anomaly shown on your 10 day chart for central England.

This chart shows the anomaly for the next 8 days as in the 0C to -2C range for central England. 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.html

My calculations have the anomaly for days 1-8 as -1.2C (as opposed to the -0.8C for days 1-10). 

So your anomaly figures seem about right - possibly a little too much on the negative side. But certainly no more than a 1C variance which is easily accounted for by the rather rough and ready nature of my quick calculations.

Quiet in here tonight..,,, mind you I’ve just looked at the latest model output and I’m not surprised.

Cant agree with that at all.  Model fatigue has set in after months of cold chasing for many punters, sadly just as the charts start to get really interesting.

Take the ICON 18z offering - for t120 - fascinating and an upgrade:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/icone_cartes.php?&ech=120&mode=0&map=2&archive=0

Certainly something to cling on to with the 18z Op. I wonder if come T156 the 850hPA air coming in from the west will really be at -10. I am as fatigued as many but I just can't let this go!!

Certainly something to cling on to with the 18z Op. I wonder if come T156 the 850hPA air coming in from the west will really be at -10. I am as fatigued as many but I just can't let this go!!

 

Or you can go for -9 850 HpA air from the east:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmae_cartes.php?ech=204&code=0&carte=0&mode=0&archive=0

Fascinating seeing how this plays out.

or this at day 7-8:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=180&mode=0&carte=0&run=10

More runs needed. Thursday is still the day when we will have more of a clue about next week.

....or this -getting fingered by -10 air:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/850-hpa/168h.htm

Yet Again - Friday 9th into Sat 10th Feb shows a snowfest nationwide:

Some interesting runs on the 18z GEFS tonight! East or west it matters not!!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018013018/gens-19-0-168.png

Crazy to see -8c air from both east and west almost meeting!

Some interesting runs on the 18z GEFS tonight! East or west it matters not!!
http://modeles7.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/runs/2018013018/gens-19-0-168.png

The problem is it does matter - especially for lowland areas. The 850 values only tell part of the story. A NW source will be much more modified from mixing out of the boundary layers and it’s this maritime influence that can turn a snow event into a sleet fest unless you benefit from altitude. Now a good clean continental flow - well you have no problems unless maybe you’re right on the coast.

Of course you can’t rule anything out, but you’d have to be a very optimistic southerner to get excited about the demise of the winter easterly. Some are talking about corrections, but we’d need to see an historic correction to get the easterly back on the menu next week.

Yet Again - Friday 9th into Sat 10th Feb shows a snowfest nationwide:

 

That last chart might raise Karl's interest?

Quite a few Ensembles show quite a wintry Sat 10th Feb and a real dip in the jet: - But our problem as seen in every single ensemble chart is the Azores HP which ruins our chances!

LMAO @ the 925mb approaching the 1050mb Greenland HP! Yeah right!: 

Battle?

Plenty of colder/chillier options but noting severe cold or prolonged! - just shame that any snow will be transient and temporary and more exclusive to northern Hills.

The 0z ensembles are much better than some might think. I do wonder if we are sleep walking into a half decent cool to cold spell for much of the UK?

Well, they certainly do look like showing a cold spell of sorts, but the devil's in the detail - source of the airmass is critically important and those aren't shown on those ensemble charts (you'd have to view the postage stamps). Still, it's nice to see some show genuinely deep cold persisting for a couple of days at least, albeit as ever they're in the small minority.

The wxmaps summary of GFS 7-day temperatures is noteworthy as it's the coldest it's been UK-wide all winter - lots of 0-2 below and some splodges of 2-4 below. In previous colder interludes, the far south has been persistently average or above average... it's had a couple of runs where it was shown as 0-2 below, but not 2-4 below.

http://wxmaps.org/pix/temp4.png

Also of interest are the fax charts from last night. Yes, the little low over the North Sea could potentially bring something of a wintry flavour if the fronts get far enough west, but the other thing is the pool of sub 474-dam air near to Hudson Bay. It's exceptionally rare to see such a deep cold pool on those fax charts!

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

Two's version 147 snow rows best of winter also about  12 get to -10c .

Hey Gusty.  Is winter over now?

www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=144&mode=0&map=0&type=0&archive=0

Caveat:

Don't be surprised to see either up grades or down grades from here though.

Excellent and cold ukmo run looking very battlegroundy 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

Quite close to a snow event Friday night/Saturday morning, particularly midlands Northwards. One to watch!

Worth mentioning that the ECM run can be seen in exquisite detail here:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2018013100/great-britain/temperature-850hpa/20180206-0000z.html

Watching that mild sector being squeezed out is a sight to behold. (Also, there's some snow around 😛 )

EDIT: And two days of -10C 850s from the east down here. If only, eh?