At least the models have finally been programmed this year to send the continental cold south to Greece, the Balkans and N.Africa. We haven't had our perennial saga of the cold being modeled west right over us only for it to slide SE two days out !

To me the Azores HP has been the fly in the ointment this winter. Dominant with perpetual northerly incursions but never really getting far enough north to create permanent cold and no northern blocking to link to. This has led to a number of minor N/NW situations before it flattens and goes home. At least no Bartlett highs but it has resulted in the South getting an insipid winter with hardly any frosts, a couple of minor snow falls. Cloudy and drizzly a lot of the time and with the Atlantic not dominating in a low pressure sense no real dramatic weather.

---

At least the models have finally been programmed this year to send the continental cold south to Greece, the Balkans and N.Africa. We haven't had our perennial saga of the cold being modeled west right over us only for it to slide SE two days out !

To me the Azores HP has been the fly in the ointment this winter. Dominant with perpetual northerly incursions but never really getting far enough north to create permanent cold and no northern blocking to link to. This has led to a number of minor N/NW situations before it flattens and goes home. At least no Bartlett highs but it has resulted in the South getting an insipid winter with hardly any frosts, a couple of minor snow falls. Cloudy and drizzly a lot of the time and with the Atlantic not dominating in a low pressure sense no real dramatic weather.

If by ‘South’ you mean the coastal counties of England then you may have a point. 

Depending on context ‘South’ could mean anywhere south of the Midlands and then your comment would be highly inaccurate.

Here, for example, we’ve had two substantial snowfalls; one ‘disruptive’ for a day.  We’ve had countless overnight frosts as well.  

Plus, there’s a third of winter left and the models aren’t reliable more than a few days out.

---

Gfs 6z still a million miles from the Ecm let alone the ukmo. GFS has has probably the best winter out the big 3 but this would be its biggest victory yet as its so different to the other 2. Hopefully it's wrong this time and the ukmo is on the money.

 

---

Gfs 6z still a million miles from the Ecm let alone the ukmo. GFS has has probably the best winter out the big 3 but this would be its biggest victory yet as its so different to the other 2. Hopefully it's wrong this time and the ukmo is on the money.

 

If it was ‘old’ GFS I’d be more hopeful it was wrong but it’s performed well this season and you have to say that once it switches it’s got the jump on the other two and has the right idea. 

Maybe UKM is correct but I’d say it’s odds on that the easterly signal is only just clinging on by its fingertips this morning. Damn shame - was hoping for at least one snowfall this winter down here (South as in South of the M4 corridor lol)

---

Interesting that we are fixated with FI , when actually theres some wintry weather to be had in the short term. Also - not that the GFS has picked up on it, but the Met have Friday/Saturdays front more of a sliding front. This one is worth keeping an eye on for some surprise snowfall for some areas.

---

Nationwide snow event ha jff @ +252:

 

But again the block develops over NW Canada and Alaska to give N. America, southern plains and eastern seaboard a severe Arctic cold spell like over Xmas and into first half of January! The northern block is on the wrong side of the Arctic to give NW Europe colder weather. That Alaskan and NW Canadian HP will push cold air out of the Arctic and plunge all the Lows and cold into N. America and then blast up the jet off the eastern seaboard and then provide us with endless cyclongenises, which isn't good esp as the NAO will stay positive ?

Plus we have no blocking over Greenland, Svalbard, Iceland or Northern Scandinavia and any ridge will struggle to build with this below set up/. - Look how active the .N. Atlantic is!! At the best we will get cold zonality. Just when you thought the Atlantic was going to settle down and bring us some dry cold and frosty even wintry weather we see the jet blast up and the Atlantic onslaught coming at us once again.

 

 

---

 

Indeed. When I see charts like this morning's I wish we could fast forward to the Grand National and Easter so I can start earning some dosh. 

 

Now I'm wondering if you have a sideline as a bookmaker. :)

---

 

If it was ‘old’ GFS I’d be more hopeful it was wrong but it’s performed well this season and you have to say that once it switches it’s got the jump on the other two and has the right idea. 

Maybe UKM is correct but I’d say it’s odds on that the easterly signal is only just clinging on by its fingertips this morning. Damn shame - was hoping for at least one snowfall this winter down here (South as in South of the M4 corridor lol)

 

I think most of us here would agree with this sadly. The GFS  aint the crazy joker in the pack anymore. The lack of Pub run specials is a sure sign of that. 

Having said that the 6z has some proper cold zonal conditions but as you say that's not much help to the far south who've had another poor winter so far.

 

---

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/maps/GFSOPEU06_144_1.png 

In my eyes this is close to UKMO and really wouldn’t take much to deliver a cold shot. Might not be prolonged but close the being interesting

Such a shame. Winter is over.  (for the south).

A winter full of disappointments here with only a couple of days of falling sleet or wet snow to show for all of our efforts. Its the end of January now. Its beautiful out there now our second frost of the month has melted.. Time to start getting excited about longer day length and a warming sun.

After tonight's 12z run when the final nail on the latest whiff of an easterly is completely distinguished I shall be taking a one month break from rainbow chasing.

February still offers a great deal of interest for many in the Midlands northwards so please enjoy. 

Here in Kent without that mid winter easterly we may as well live in another country.  

 

---

Such a shame. Winter is over.  (for the south).

A winter full of disappointments here with only a couple of days of falling sleet or wet snow to show for all of our efforts. Its the end of January now. Its beautiful out there now our second frost of the month has melted.. Time to start getting excited about longer day length and a warming sun.

After tonight's 12z run when the final nail on the latest whiff of an easterly is completely distinguished I shall be taking a one month break from rainbow chasing.

February still offers a great deal of interest for many in the Midlands northwards so please enjoy. 

Here in Kent without that mid winter easterly we may as well as well live in another country.  

 

Pfffft

The 6z gives some transient snowfall along with the cold rain down here, just so we can get a vague taste of what we could have won

TBH as you mention if we can't have proper cold and snow then I'm fine with anything dry and sunny - feels amazing in then sun today and that's only going to get better as we wander through February and in to March

(That said if GFS reverts back to more Easterly solutions I expect I'll saddle up for another chase)

Ignoring the likely lack of anything too interesting down here (albeit I reckon we'd get some temporary accumulations even down here if the 6z verified as shown) the 6z does continue the theme of there being plenty of cold air around which seems to be readily drawn down over the UK.

For places North of here it could be a fun month, albeit the warm sectors rattling through would mean windows of snowy fun rather than spells.

 

---

Steve M doing his best to rally the troops on the other side

As Darren said earlier this will be resolved soon. Maybe not tonight but this time tomorrow we will know if UKMO has failed again

---

 

Pfffft

The 6z gives some transient snowfall along with the cold rain down here, just so we can get a vague taste of what we could have won

TBH as you mention if we can't have proper cold and snow then I'm fine with anything dry and sunny - feels amazing in then sun today and that's only going to get better as we wander through February and in to March

(That said if GFS reverts back to more Easterly solutions I expect I'll saddle up for another chase)

Ignoring the likely lack of anything too interesting down here (albeit I reckon we'd get some temporary accumulations even down here if the 6z verified as shown) the 6z does continue the theme of there being plenty of cold air around which seems to be readily drawn down over the UK.

For places North of here it could be a fun month, albeit the warm sectors rattling through would mean windows of snowy fun rather than spells.

 

Maybe transient snow but there certainly isn;t any signs of a prolonged cold spell and we are now into February. - at least very soon and it looks like a dejavu of January and we didn;t have any cold spell in January - only chillier snaps first week. Days are getting longer now and sun is stronger and it looks more and more likely that this will be a nother winter let down despite easterly QBO or LA Nina etc. Any cold weather will be temporary and only lasting a day or so and yes maybe transient snow but that's it really. We only have one month left of winter anyway.

Very disappointed - also bare in mind February was forecast to be the mildest of the 3 winter months according to LRF., I am really disappointed with the weather this January - i never thought it could turn out some +1.5c above average. I really thought that we would have had a decent chance of some prolonged cold weather this January for the first time since 2013. - Seeing as last year we missed out whilst most of Europe were plunged into the freezer for weeks and weeks. The only difference this year is that Europe isn't cooling down either. It's been exceptionally mild there too. 

When can we create a winter is over thread?

---

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

---

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png 

Stop Swearing ! 

---

Such a shame. Winter is over.  (for the south).

 

 

Did it ever start?!

Sun really packing a punch outside now and to be honest I like it, a sign of getting old perhaps!

Roll on spring warmth and girls in bikinis in the park

---

Such a shame. Winter is over.  (for the south).

A winter full of disappointments here with only a couple of days of falling sleet or wet snow to show for all of our efforts. Its the end of January now. Its beautiful out there now our second frost of the month has melted.. Time to start getting excited about longer day length and a warming sun.

After tonight's 12z run when the final nail on the latest whiff of an easterly is completely distinguished I shall be taking a one month break from rainbow chasing.

February still offers a great deal of interest for many in the Midlands northwards so please enjoy. 

Here in Kent without that mid winter easterly we may as well live in another country.  

 

In 2013 the channel islands had the most snow they have had for decades and it happened in late march. February is still a winter month for a reason, its just a case of getting the right setup.

 

---

Just the 110 snow rows then LOL. 

 

 

 

---

 

Did it ever start?!

Sun really packing a punch outside now and to be honest I like it, a sign of getting old perhaps!

Roll on spring warmth and girls in bikinis in the park

 

I know it's a random question - but are there any girls on this forum at all ? i don't think i have come across any female members? It seems like an entire sausage fest...not the Murr sausage ha! Pun intended ! Boom boom! (thank you drummer!)

---

Such a shame. Winter is over.  (for the south).

A winter full of disappointments here with only a couple of days of falling sleet or wet snow to show for all of our efforts. Its the end of January now. Its beautiful out there now our second frost of the month has melted.. Time to start getting excited about longer day length and a warming sun.

After tonight's 12z run when the final nail on the latest whiff of an easterly is completely distinguished I shall be taking a one month break from rainbow chasing.

February still offers a great deal of interest for many in the Midlands northwards so please enjoy. 

Here in Kent without that mid winter easterly we may as well live in another country.  

 

Not much better IMBY Gusty, another forgetful winter thus far.

 

  Not much joy going forward but at least we’ll see a few some sunny days and frosty nights before the advent of spring. 😎