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September UK temperature analysis and discussion
Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,805 Location: Central Southern England
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We do need to be cautious about assuming a 16C+ is nailed on for September. Even with this notable 18.2C to 11th, we still need 14.8 daily for the rest of the month to secure a 16. That is based on current HadCET reporting back, which of course is some way above what tends to happen. I do hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming. Luckily GW is able to track closer to the truth as the month moves on. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. August 2020: best heatwave since '95 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 06/12/2011(UTC) Posts: 512 Location: Leeds
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle  We do need to be cautious about assuming a 16C+ is nailed on for September. Even with this notable 18.2C to 11th, we still need 14.8 daily for the rest of the month to secure a 16. That is based on current HadCET reporting back, which of course is some way above what tends to happen. I do hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming. Luckily GW is able to track closer to the truth as the month moves on. How do you mean 'you hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming'? Are you suggesting they are fiddling the data? As for the 16c+ I agree that it is by no means are guarantee and I suspect the current 18.2c could be running at least 0.5c above the actual so far, but will see what GW says. |
NW Leeds - 150m amsl |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 5,047 
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Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle  We do need to be cautious about assuming a 16C+ is nailed on for September. Even with this notable 18.2C to 11th, we still need 14.8 daily for the rest of the month to secure a 16. That is based on current HadCET reporting back, which of course is some way above what tends to happen. I do hope these regular, nay, constant downjustments are not just designed to cover up warming. Luckily GW is able to track closer to the truth as the month moves on. If I remember correctly there is a -0.2C adjustment made each month to allow for increasd urbanisation of the sites. Not a "cover up" but a way of getting consistency across the whole series going back into the Manley data from 1659 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,805 Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: lanky  If I remember correctly there is a -0.2C adjustment made each month to allow for increasd urbanisation of the sites. Not a "cover up" but a way of getting consistency across the whole series going back into the Manley data from 1659 No- apologies to you and Taylor & anyone else- I should have posted a smiley; it was intended lightly. I certainly wasn't hijacking this brilliant thread with a climate agenda! Soz. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. August 2020: best heatwave since '95 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 17.9c Anomaly 3.5c provisional to 12th Metcheck 17.01c Anomaly 3.28c Netweather 17.82c Anomaly 4.13c Peasedown St John 17.17c Anomaly 2.89c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 35,509  
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Thanks ART!  The decline has begun! Wonder where it will end up? |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 25,719 Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Originally Posted by: Gavin P  Thanks ART!  The decline has begun! Wonder where it will end up? A Sepetmber CET in excess of 17C would be amazing. A September CET in excess of 18C would be truly amazing. But look at December 2015 - A CET in excess of 9.0C Now that was incredible. So these days anything is possible. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 05/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 54,917  Location: St Helens
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Originally Posted by: Hungry Tiger  A Sepetmber CET in excess of 17C would be amazing. A September CET in excess of 18C would be truly amazing. But look at December 2015 - A CET in excess of 9.0C Now that was incredible. So these days anything is possible. The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments). I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing |
Martin Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 20/11/2015(UTC) Posts: 6,805 Location: Central Southern England
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow  The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments). I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing This evening, the GFS Ens mean line is mostly > a degree above the black line, sometimes as high as +3 and only reaching +0 on about two occasions. This should give CETs at the higher end of your estimate. I continue to be baffled by the black line- start and end of run just about the same, despite two weeks of autumnal onset. |
Bertie, Itchen Valley. August 2020: best heatwave since '95 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 17.7c Anomaly 3.4c provisional to 13th Metcheck 16.89c Anomaly 3.17c Netweather 17.67c Anomaly 3.98c Peasedown St John 17.92c Anomaly 2.74c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 28/10/2008(UTC) Posts: 23,700   Location: Market Warsop, Nottinghamshire, East Midlands
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Originally Posted by: Saint Snow  The next couple of weeks seem to look pretty stable in terms of max & min temps, with almost all days looking like having a CET of between 13c and 15c. If the rest of the month averaged about 14c, we'd be looking at a final figure of 15.5c - 16c (depending on downward adjustments). I'm pretty confident this will be the case - barring any crazily anomalous spell not currently showing well, I’m very confident it will end closer to your prediction than mine!   |
Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire. Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 17.6c Anomaly 3.3c provisional to 14th Metcheck 16.73c Anomaly 3.01c Netweather 17.52c Anomaly 2.83c Peasedown St John 17.0c Anomaly 2.72c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 11/04/2006(UTC) Posts: 25,719 Location: South Cambridgeshire
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Originally Posted by: ARTzeman  Met Office Hadley 17.6c Anomaly 3.3c provisional to 14th Metcheck 16.73c Anomaly 3.01c Netweather 17.52c Anomaly 2.83c Peasedown St John 17.0c Anomaly 2.72c. Still very impressive and we're half way through the month.    |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 17.4c Anomaly 3.2c provisional to 15th Metcheck 16.61c Anomaly 2.89c Netweather 17.41c Anomaly 3.72c Peasedown St John 16.92c Anomaly 2.54c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 10/06/2016(UTC) Posts: 4,670  Location: Blackrod, near Chorley, Lancs - alt: 156m
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16°C+ is looking unlikely now, I'd say. The models seem to be suggesting a fresher feel for the final third of the month. Daytime temperatures will be similar to now, but the nights look to be turning quite a bit cooler. |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 17.4c Anomaly 3.2c provisional to 16th Metcheck 16.54c Anomaly 2.82c Netweather 17.33c Anomaly 3.64c Peasedown St John 16.71c Anomaly 2.43c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 17.3c Anomaly 3.2c provisional to 17th Metcheck 16.48c Anomaly 2.76c Netweather 17.27c Anomaly 3.58c Peasedown St John 16.6c Anomaly 2.39c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 17.3c Anomaly 3.2c provisional to 18th Metcheck 16.51c Anomaly 2.79c Netweather 17.3c Anomaly 3.61c Peasdeown St John 16.7c Anomaly 2.42c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 07/10/2006(UTC) Posts: 6,714  Location: Chineham, Basingstoke
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Good afternoon. I have been away on holiday for the past week so not had a chance to post any updates for a while. Latest CET estimate for September is 15.77C. So a steady fall off for the rest of the month as would be expected. Temperatures should stay slightly above average until the final three days of the month, mainly due to mild nights. Final September CET could be very similar to August. Despite the fall off in the CET in the second half of the month this could still be the 7th warmest September on record. The CET has reached 16C or more on 6 occasions in September. We have never had a 15.8C or 15.9C September. Chart 1 Chart 2 |
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Rank: Advanced Member
Joined: 14/07/2012(UTC) Posts: 30,151  Location: Peasedown St John. N.E. Sommerset
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Met Office Hadley 17.2c Anomaly 3.2c provisional to 19th Metcheck 16.37c Anomaly 2.65c Netweather 17.2c Anomaly 3.51c Peasedown St John 16.7c Anomaly 2.4c. |
Some people walk in the rain. Others just get wet. I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
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