ARTzeman
19 January 2020 10:34:41

Met Office Hadley     7.2c     Anomaly    3.7c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                  6.97c   Anomaly    2.82c

Netweather               7.61c   Anomaly    3.42c

Peasedown St John    7.9c    Anomaly    2.62c  




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Global Warming
19 January 2020 19:04:55

Here is a comparison of the winter 2019/20 CET temperature against the top 7 warmest winters in the series (which all had a winter CET of above 6.4C). The data uses my estimate out to the end of January.

UserPostedImage

CHART


ARTzeman
20 January 2020 12:01:07

Met Office Hadley       7.0c     Anomaly     3.5c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                    6.69c   Anomaly     2.54c

Netweather                 7.28c   Anomaly     3.09c

Peasedown St John     7.6c    Anomaly      2.32c.        




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Hungry Tiger
20 January 2020 14:59:43

Originally Posted by: ARTzeman 

Met Office Hadley       7.0c     Anomaly     3.5c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                    6.69c   Anomaly     2.54c

Netweather                 7.28c   Anomaly     3.09c

Peasedown St John     7.6c    Anomaly      2.32c.        

Phew - things have taken a knock.


Gavin S. FRmetS.

TWO Moderator.

Contact the TWO team - twomoderationteam@gmail.com

South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.



Gavin P
20 January 2020 18:12:17

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Here is a comparison of the winter 2019/20 CET temperature against the top 7 warmest winters in the series (which all had a winter CET of above 6.4C). The data uses my estimate out to the end of January.

UserPostedImage

CHART

Hey GW where are you now pitching January's CET to finish?


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Whether Idle
20 January 2020 19:04:23

My suggestion is that after adjustments we may be looking at 6.3 give or take a tenth or 2. GW will no doubt have his own finely calibrated prediction, though we all know all predictions are only as good as the forecast data inputted.


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
ARTzeman
21 January 2020 11:54:44

Met Office Hadley      6.8c    Anomaly     3.3c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                   6.50c   Anomaly     2.35c 

Netweather                7.04c   Anomaly     2.85c

Peasedown St John   7.4c    Anomaly    1.76c    




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Gavin P
21 January 2020 12:45:19

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

My suggestion is that after adjustments we may be looking at 6.3 give or take a tenth or 2. GW will no doubt have his own finely calibrated prediction, though we all know all predictions are only as good as the forecast data inputted.

Thanks WI! 

January 1916 survives for another year then.


Rural West Northants 120m asl

Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids

Stormchaser
21 January 2020 13:11:22

Originally Posted by: Whether Idle 

My suggestion is that after adjustments we may be looking at 6.3 give or take a tenth or 2. GW will no doubt have his own finely calibrated prediction, though we all know all predictions are only as good as the forecast data inputted.

I have similar musings... with the very real possibility of Gusty starting 2020 as he finished 2019 .

 

With it being such a big anomaly, it will be particularly impressive result this month for those who have made a decent call (say, within 0.5*C of actual) on just how anomalous to go, considering the sensitivity of extreme month 'attempts' to temporary switches away from the dominant weather regime.

Imagine, for example, if the current high pressure was either further northeast (colder and for longer), or southwest (barely cold to begin with). There's probably well over 1*C of difference between those two scenarios.

 

So, if Gusty does turn out to have it nailed or very nearly so, it will be quite some 'icing on the cake' (...decorated with crystal balls).


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com 🙂

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

Caz
  • Caz
  • Advanced Member
21 January 2020 18:03:58

Yes, it certainly looks like Gusty is off to a good start, although I think we’ll end the month a little below his prediction.  Oh, hang on!  What do I know?  

My February guess is already in, as I’m off to cruise the Far East for two weeks in temps above 30c.  Coming home will be a shock to the system! 

Good luck with your January predictions - note I refer to mine as guesses and everyone else’s as predictions. 


Market Warsop, North Nottinghamshire.

Join the fun and banter of the monthly CET competition. Discuss monthly temperatures and records.CET competition  

Col
  • Col
  • Advanced Member
21 January 2020 20:26:57

Originally Posted by: Caz 

Yes, it certainly looks like Gusty is off to a good start, although I think we’ll end the month a little below his prediction.  Oh, hang on!  What do I know?  

My February guess is already in, as I’m off to cruise the Far East for two weeks in temps above 30c.  Coming home will be a shock to the system! 

Good luck with your January predictions - note I refer to mine as guesses and everyone else’s as predictions. 

I used to make 'predictions'. Now they're just guesses...


Col

Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Bertwhistle
21 January 2020 20:50:00

Originally Posted by: Global Warming 

Here is a comparison of the winter 2019/20 CET temperature against the top 7 warmest winters in the series (which all had a winter CET of above 6.4C). The data uses my estimate out to the end of January.

UserPostedImage

CHART

Hi GW.

Just for clarification- CET at HAD only has 6 winters 6.4 or above. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

The seventh is 1686 at 6.33.

In any case, how can we compare these to winter 2019/20 which is only just past half-done?


Bertie, Itchen Valley.

Definition of disappointment: brown birch bolete

ARTzeman
22 January 2020 10:37:27

Met Office Hadley     6.6c.     Anomaly    3.1c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                  6.44c    Anomaly    2.29c

Netweather               6.85c    Anomaly    2.66c

Peaasedown St John  7.1c    Anomaly    1.82c.      




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Darren S
22 January 2020 21:01:05

Originally Posted by: Bertwhistle 

 

Hi GW.

Just for clarification- CET at HAD only has 6 winters 6.4 or above. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

Just a typo - he has only included 6 winters in his graph, as well as this winter. 


Darren

Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)

Winter 2022/3: Snow Days: 0 Snow Cover Days: 0 Current Depth: 0 cm Max Depth: 0 cm Total Depth: 0 cm

South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:

2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm

ARTzeman
23 January 2020 10:57:15

Mey Office Hadley     6.6c.   Anomaly    3.0c. provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                   6.47c  Anomaly    2.32c

Netweather                6.83c  Anomaly    2.64c

Peasedown St john    7.1c    Anomaly    1.82c.      




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
24 January 2020 10:41:05

Met Office Hadley        6.5c.     Anomaly      2.9c. provisional to 23rd

Metcheck                     6.46c    Anomaly      2.31c

Netweather                  6.82c    Anomaly      2.63c

Peasedown St John     7.0c     Anomaly     1.72c.     




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Dingle Rob
24 January 2020 23:26:48
A downward adjustment would come in handy ….. just saying!
ARTzeman
25 January 2020 11:02:39

Met Office Hadley       6.5c    Anomaly     2.0c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                    6.45c  Anomaly     2.28c

Netweather                 6.8c    Anomaly     2.61c

Peasedown St John     7.0c    Anomaly     1.72c.   




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

ARTzeman
26 January 2020 11:22:30

Met Office Hadley      6.5c.    Anomaly     2.8c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                   6.41c    Anomaly     2.26c

Netweather                6.77c    Anomaly     2.58c

Peasedown St John    7.0cc    Anomaly     1.72c.  




Some people walk in the rain.

Others just get wet.

I Just Blow my horn or trumpet

Stormchaser
26 January 2020 18:35:23

A cooler interlude incoming, but not massively so, followed by a mild rally for the final day.

Perhaps not much overall change from where we are now, prior to adjustments from the provisional.

 

Had a sneaky look ahead to Feb. Signs of a sudden stratospheric warming to try and shake things up, but no strong indication of the type of event that's most likely to bring a big cold spell to NW Europe; the kind where two areas of warmth from different origin points join forces to 'pinch' the polar vortex in two.

Instead, a displacement with possible subsequent split is being indicated. We saw that last Jan-Feb and it didn't serve us much cold weather - just the one spell in the south that did, at least, bring some appreciable snowfall. It then helped set up that record-warm spell at the end of the month!

 

The 12z GFS begins extremely balmy for Feb 2020; CET of around 9.0*C for 1st-3rd which is over 5*C above the LTA to that point in the month. There are then some cool or chilly interludes but separated by more very mild spells, with the CET estimate only just out of the 7s *C as of 11th.

So even if we saw the right sort of SSW, it'd have a lot of work to do if that run is anywhere near the mark. Other modelling (ensemble & long-range) has generally supported the mild theme, even very mild.

Unless we see a big change in model signals in the next five days, it's going to be hard to go for anything other than above average again .


If you have any problems or queries relating to TWO you can Email twomoderationteam@gmail.com 🙂

https://twitter.com/peacockreports 

2021's Homeland Extremes:

T-Max: 30.4°C 21st Jul | T-Min: -6.8°C New Years Day! | Wettest Day: 34.1mm 2nd Oct | Ice Days: 2 (27th Jan & 8th Feb)

Keep Calm and Forecast On

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