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Whether Idle
26 January 2020 19:28:16

A finish of 6.2 fter adjustments seems quite possible to me, but could get as high as 6.4. 


Dover, 5m asl. Half a mile from the south coast.
ARTzeman
27 January 2020 11:33:06

Met Office Hadley       6.5c.     Anomaly     2.8c Provisional to 26th


Metcheck                    6.42c    Anomaly     2.27c


Netweather                 6.79c    Anomal      2.6c


Peasedown St John      7.0c     Anomaly     1.72c.






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
28 January 2020 10:58:38

Met Office Hadley     6.5c.      Anomaly      2.7c. Provisional to 27th.


Metcheck                  6.35c     Anomaly      2.20c


Netweather               6.77c     Anomaly      2.58


Peasedown St John   7.0c     Anomaly    1.72c.    






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
29 January 2020 10:45:54

Met Office Hadley         6.4c     Anomaly      2.6c.  Provisional to28th.


Metcheck                      6.26c    Anomaly     2.11c


Netweather                   6.29c    Anomaly     2.5c


Peasedown St John      6.5c     Anomaly    1.2c. 






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
ARTzeman
30 January 2020 10:45:50

Met Office Hadley        6.4c.       Anomaly      2.6c.  Provisional to 29th.


Metcheck                     6.29c      Anomaly      2.13c


Netweather                  6.68c      Anomaly      2.49c


Peasedown St John      7.0c       Anomaly      1.72c            






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Stormchaser
30 January 2020 11:32:41

So, looks to have been an exceptionally mild month, but not record-breaking.


Locally, I'm odds-on for the mildest Jan of the 21st Century so far, just about edging out 2007 (6.97*C). Probably falling short of 1990's record-holding 7.2*C.


 


Looking ahead to Feb, a lot of +NAO regimes featuring in the modelling, but some uncertainty regarding how much of a Euro High there is alongside that.


GFS 00z didn't have much, resulting in plenty of polar maritime air incursions to keep the CET in the 'fairly mild' territory; less than a degree above the LTA as of mid-month.


The GFS 06z, on the other hand, has much more of a Euro High from 9th Feb, with some seriously balmy conditions at times and little in the way of PM air crossing England. A rough CET estimate for that one is over 2.5*C above the LTA as of 14th!


The ECM 00z looks markedly milder than both those runs for 6th-7th, as it drives in a westerly flow much quicker than GFS, preventing the 2-3 frosty nights and chilly days offered by that model.


 


Starting to contemplate whether 2019-20 will challenge the mildest winters on record .


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2023's Homeland Extremes:
T-Max: 30.2°C 9th Sep (...!) | T-Min: -7.1°C 22nd & 23rd Jan | Wettest Day: 25.9mm 2nd Nov | Ice Days: 1 (2nd Dec -1.3°C in freezing fog)
Keep Calm and Forecast On
Hungry Tiger
30 January 2020 14:01:05


So, looks to have been an exceptionally mild month, but not record-breaking.


Locally, I'm odds-on for the mildest Jan of the 21st Century so far, just about edging out 2007 (6.97*C). Probably falling short of 1990's record-holding 7.2*C.


 


Looking ahead to Feb, a lot of +NAO regimes featuring in the modelling, but some uncertainty regarding how much of a Euro High there is alongside that.


GFS 00z didn't have much, resulting in plenty of polar maritime air incursions to keep the CET in the 'fairly mild' territory; less than a degree above the LTA as of mid-month.


The GFS 06z, on the other hand, has much more of a Euro High from 9th Feb, with some seriously balmy conditions at times and little in the way of PM air crossing England. A rough CET estimate for that one is over 2.5*C above the LTA as of 14th!


The ECM 00z looks markedly milder than both those runs for 6th-7th, as it drives in a westerly flow much quicker than GFS, preventing the 2-3 frosty nights and chilly days offered by that model.


 


Starting to contemplate whether 2019-20 will challenge the mildest winters on record .


Originally Posted by: Stormchaser 


I reckon this winter will come in the top 5 mildest on record. I went for 6.0C for January and that wasn't enough. I'd be happy to go for 6.2C for February. Never be surprised though if February ended up close to 7.0C


 


Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


Spring Sun Winter Dread
30 January 2020 21:06:38
The record is going to be a tough one to beat for winter. Even 2015-16 couldn't quite manage it with such a remarkable December. I remember us watching the seasonal CET dip annoyingly just below the record horizon in the last few days of February in fact!
Global Warming
31 January 2020 06:11:03

I am not well at the moment so am unable to post any updates for the time being.

Sevendust
31 January 2020 06:17:41


I am not well at the moment so am unable to post any updates for the time being.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Sorry to hear mate - Hope you are better soon 

Hungry Tiger
31 January 2020 10:31:05

The record is going to be a tough one to beat for winter. Even 2015-16 couldn't quite manage it with such a remarkable December. I remember us watching the seasonal CET dip annoyingly just below the record horizon in the last few days of February in fact!


Originally Posted by: Spring Sun Winter Dread 


The one to beat is


  6.77C in 1869

Gavin S. FRmetS.
TWO Moderator.
Contact the TWO team - [email protected]
South Cambridgeshire. 93 metres or 302.25 feet ASL.


ARTzeman
31 January 2020 11:08:54

Met Office Hadley           6.4c.        Anomaly       2.6c.  Provisional to 30th.


Metcheck                        6.39c       Anomaly       2.24c


Netweather                     6.77c       Anomaly       2.58c


Peasedown St John        7.0c         Anomaly        1.2c.      






Some people walk in the rain.
Others just get wet.
I Just Blow my horn or trumpet
Darren S
01 February 2020 17:23:30

The provisional CET up to and including the 31st is 6.53C (+2.71C). The final figure has not yet been confirmed.


Darren
Crowthorne, Berks (87m asl)
South Berks Winter Snow Depth Totals:
2023/24 0 cm; 2022/23 7 cm; 2021/22 1 cm; 2020/21 13 cm; 2019/20 0 cm; 2018/19 14 cm; 2017/18 23 cm; 2016/17 0 cm; 2015/16 0.5 cm; 2014/15 3.5 cm; 2013/14 0 cm; 2012/13 22 cm; 2011/12 7 cm; 2010/11 6 cm; 2009/10 51 cm
Saint Snow
03 February 2020 11:36:22


The provisional CET up to and including the 31st is 6.53C (+2.71C). The final figure has not yet been confirmed.


Originally Posted by: Darren S 


 


I'm hoping for as big a downgrade as possible! 



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
Spring Sun Winter Dread
03 February 2020 13:39:25
I'm usually good at January and screw up Feb... hopefully this year will be the converse as I have royally undercooked the mildness of Jan !
johncs2016
04 February 2020 15:49:51
The Hadley website has still to be updated with January's final CET figure (allowing for any downwards corrections), but Gavin P. did say in a recent video that the temperature anomalies across the UK as a whole, will probably be quite represenative of how that final CET figure is likely to pan out.

In addition to that, it was also confirmed by the Met Office in the weekly livestream which they put out every Tuesday afternoon on YouTube, that the UK as a whole had its 6th warmest January on record, with Scotland experiencing its 5th warmest January on record. They also confirmed that January had the lowest number of air frosts with that particular month since 1990, with even parts of Northumberland remaining completely frost-free all the way through January.

That just tells you how mild, January actually was because to me, that is kind of like the winter equivalent of parts of central southern England never, ever getting about 20°C (let alone 30°C) during a particular month within the summer.

The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
redmoons
06 February 2020 19:25:42
Still no update for the final figure for January, and its been completely removed now.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html 
Andrew,
Watford
ASL 35m
http://weather.andrewlalchan.co.uk 





lanky
06 February 2020 19:38:52

Still no update for the final figure for January, and its been completely removed now.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html


Originally Posted by: redmoons 


It looks as though the Finalised data has been partly updated but 7 days in Jan 2020 seem to be missing - presumably there are problems with the data extraction or validation on those dates from the 3 recording sites


 


Martin
Richmond, Surrey
Global Warming
08 February 2020 16:40:04

There is missing data from Rothamsted at various points during January which is why the CET can't be finalised. Hadley will be trying to use data from other sites close to Rothamsted and then make suitable adjustments to normalise the data as close as possible to what would have likely been the Rothamsted data. Not an easy task and hence it is taking some time.


Based on the final data that has been released and the estimated data for the missing days we have a figure of 6.45C. That will likely come down a little once the final days are released. So I would expect a final figure of 6.4C.

Gavin P
09 February 2020 14:58:10


There is missing data from Rothamsted at various points during January which is why the CET can't be finalised. Hadley will be trying to use data from other sites close to Rothamsted and then make suitable adjustments to normalise the data as close as possible to what would have likely been the Rothamsted data. Not an easy task and hence it is taking some time.


Based on the final data that has been released and the estimated data for the missing days we have a figure of 6.45C. That will likely come down a little once the final days are released. So I would expect a final figure of 6.4C.


Originally Posted by: Global Warming 


Thanks for letting us know what's going on GW. 


Rural West Northants 120m asl
Short, medium and long range weather forecast videos @ https://www.youtube.com/user/GavsWeatherVids
Saint Snow
12 February 2020 14:15:19

Blimey, is Hadley still trying to tie-up January?



Martin
Home: St Helens (26m asl) Work: Manchester (75m asl)
A TWO addict since 14/12/01
"How can wealth persuade poverty to use its political freedom to keep wealth in power? Here lies the whole art of Conservative politics."
Aneurin Bevan
johncs2016
12 February 2020 19:14:49

Looks like the final answer is (finally) in: 6.39c, found here: Originally Posted by: The Professional 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2020


I quite like that representation of the data and I've discovered that if you change the year in the above URL, you then get the data for that particular year so you can actually find out what the CET value was for any given day within any given year, just from this data alone.


I've also discovered that the top line of this data appears to be the temperature anomaly for each month as set against the 1961-90 LTA, rounded off to the nearest 0.01°C and then multiplied by 100. The actual user-friendly pages on the Hadley site which Gavin P. shows in his videos, then shows those anomalies rounded off to the nearest 0.1°C.


From that, we can see that last month's CET figure of 6.39°C was 2.58°C above the 1961-90 average if I am correct in what I have said in the last paragraph. In the final Hadley page which Gavin P. will no doubt evetually show us at the time, this will then be likely to show up a value of 6.4°C for January with a temperature anomaly of 2.6°C above average.


Gavin P. (at least whoever it is that helps him to maintain his website) has brought together an excellent list of all of the CET data on his site which goes all the way back to 1659 and after studying that, I have discovered that last month was the joint 14th warmest January on the CET records going all the way back to 1659, and the 4th warmest January of this century according to those same records. As Gavin P. has said on his videos, we have to go back to 2008 to find a January which was as warm or warmer than that, and this is shown up really well on the data on his site which I have just mentioned.


 


 


The north of Edinburgh, usually always missing out on snow events which occur not just within the rest of Scotland or the UK, but also within the rest of Edinburgh.
Ally Pally Snowman
12 February 2020 19:46:56

Looks like the final answer is (finally) in: 6.39c, found here: Originally Posted by: The Professional 

">https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2020


 


 


Indeed finally.


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html


 


Bishop's Stortford 85m ASL.
Global Warming
12 February 2020 21:28:27

Looks like Norseman is the winner this month. His prediction of 6.50C was the closest with an error of 0.11C. Congratulations

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