BBC predicting -3 to -5*C minimums widely for both Fri-Sat and Sat-Sun, now that would really knock the CET on the head... could be a striking step-down, albeit not nearly as extreme as theoretically possible (imagine, for example, if we had a record-warm 1st half but then a 'Beast from the East'!).

A rough estimate using the GFS 06z gives a final CET of 6.4*C. 

Despite the BBC figures for the next two nights being 4-5*C lower, putting those in only drops the final estimate by 0.1*C, so not that much impact after all!

Each additional similarly cold night after that, out to the one into Thu 23rd, knocks just under 0.1*C off the final estimate. So it may be more significant should skies stay clear, with light winds, for at least a few days into next week.

Seems unlikely that the CET will fall far enough for my Jan 'prediction'. Looking back at it, I was a bit surprised for a moment at how low it was (5.67*C), before reminding myself that it's still over 1*C above the LTA.

Hammers home how extraordinarily mild this month has been so far.

I wonder where we'll be this time next week.

Met Office Hadley         7.4c       Anomaly     3.9c. Provisional to 17th.

Metcheck                      7.20c     Anomaly     3.05c

Netweather                   7.87c     Anomaly     3.68c

Peasedown St John      8.1c     Anomaly      2.82c.

Met Office Hadley     7.2c     Anomaly    3.7c. Provisional to 18th.

Metcheck                  6.97c   Anomaly    2.82c

Netweather               7.61c   Anomaly    3.42c

Peasedown St John    7.9c    Anomaly    2.62c  

Here is a comparison of the winter 2019/20 CET temperature against the top 7 warmest winters in the series (which all had a winter CET of above 6.4C). The data uses my estimate out to the end of January.

CHART

Met Office Hadley       7.0c     Anomaly     3.5c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                    6.69c   Anomaly     2.54c

Netweather                 7.28c   Anomaly     3.09c

Peasedown St John     7.6c    Anomaly      2.32c.        

Phew - things have taken a knock.

Hey GW where are you now pitching January's CET to finish?

My suggestion is that after adjustments we may be looking at 6.3 give or take a tenth or 2. GW will no doubt have his own finely calibrated prediction, though we all know all predictions are only as good as the forecast data inputted.

Met Office Hadley      6.8c    Anomaly     3.3c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                   6.50c   Anomaly     2.35c 

Netweather                7.04c   Anomaly     2.85c

Peasedown St John   7.4c    Anomaly    1.76c    

Thanks WI! 

January 1916 survives for another year then.

I have similar musings... with the very real possibility of Gusty starting 2020 as he finished 2019 .

With it being such a big anomaly, it will be particularly impressive result this month for those who have made a decent call (say, within 0.5*C of actual) on just how anomalous to go, considering the sensitivity of extreme month 'attempts' to temporary switches away from the dominant weather regime.

Imagine, for example, if the current high pressure was either further northeast (colder and for longer), or southwest (barely cold to begin with). There's probably well over 1*C of difference between those two scenarios.

So, if Gusty does turn out to have it nailed or very nearly so, it will be quite some 'icing on the cake' (...decorated with crystal balls).

Yes, it certainly looks like Gusty is off to a good start, although I think we’ll end the month a little below his prediction.  Oh, hang on!  What do I know?  

My February guess is already in, as I’m off to cruise the Far East for two weeks in temps above 30c.  Coming home will be a shock to the system! 

Good luck with your January predictions - note I refer to mine as guesses and everyone else’s as predictions. 

I used to make 'predictions'. Now they're just guesses...

Hi GW.

Just for clarification- CET at HAD only has 6 winters 6.4 or above. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/ssn_HadCET_mean_sort.txt

The seventh is 1686 at 6.33.

In any case, how can we compare these to winter 2019/20 which is only just past half-done?

Met Office Hadley     6.6c.     Anomaly    3.1c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                  6.44c    Anomaly    2.29c

Netweather               6.85c    Anomaly    2.66c

Peaasedown St John  7.1c    Anomaly    1.82c.      

Just a typo - he has only included 6 winters in his graph, as well as this winter. 

Mey Office Hadley     6.6c.   Anomaly    3.0c. provisional to 22nd.

Metcheck                   6.47c  Anomaly    2.32c

Netweather                6.83c  Anomaly    2.64c

Peasedown St john    7.1c    Anomaly    1.82c.      

Met Office Hadley        6.5c.     Anomaly      2.9c. provisional to 23rd

Metcheck                     6.46c    Anomaly      2.31c

Netweather                  6.82c    Anomaly      2.63c

Peasedown St John     7.0c     Anomaly     1.72c.     

Met Office Hadley       6.5c    Anomaly     2.0c. Provisional to 24th.

Metcheck                    6.45c  Anomaly     2.28c

Netweather                 6.8c    Anomaly     2.61c

Peasedown St John     7.0c    Anomaly     1.72c.   

Met Office Hadley      6.5c.    Anomaly     2.8c. Provisional to 25th.

Metcheck                   6.41c    Anomaly     2.26c

Netweather                6.77c    Anomaly     2.58c

Peasedown St John    7.0cc    Anomaly     1.72c.  

A cooler interlude incoming, but not massively so, followed by a mild rally for the final day.

Perhaps not much overall change from where we are now, prior to adjustments from the provisional.

Had a sneaky look ahead to Feb. Signs of a sudden stratospheric warming to try and shake things up, but no strong indication of the type of event that's most likely to bring a big cold spell to NW Europe; the kind where two areas of warmth from different origin points join forces to 'pinch' the polar vortex in two.

Instead, a displacement with possible subsequent split is being indicated. We saw that last Jan-Feb and it didn't serve us much cold weather - just the one spell in the south that did, at least, bring some appreciable snowfall. It then helped set up that record-warm spell at the end of the month!

The 12z GFS begins extremely balmy for Feb 2020; CET of around 9.0*C for 1st-3rd which is over 5*C above the LTA to that point in the month. There are then some cool or chilly interludes but separated by more very mild spells, with the CET estimate only just out of the 7s *C as of 11th.

So even if we saw the right sort of SSW, it'd have a lot of work to do if that run is anywhere near the mark. Other modelling (ensemble & long-range) has generally supported the mild theme, even very mild.

Unless we see a big change in model signals in the next five days, it's going to be hard to go for anything other than above average again .