I'm beginning to wonder whether at 17.19C I may even have pitched a little low. I can only see it dropping a little lower in the coming few days and with warmer, more settled (albeit no heatwave conditions) being progged towards the end of month I wonder if around 17.5C might be more realistic?

Looks like the 17-ish brigade will all do fairly well, Col; another month in the bag for you. How do you do it?

As Caz says, there will be some downjustment no doubt; but I am pleased that we still held up in the 17s through this cool spell; I admit that did surprise me.

Vast majority went for the round average band- mid to high 16s- so again it might (I stress that word!) be the early risk-takers who harvest!

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My guess is looking OK but because so many people guessed in the "average " range it possibly won't give me too much of an edge in the competition. Looks like yet another bland August has been cooked up... hopefully September delivers a decent edition now

I know it’s early but I’ve pm’d my September guess already, as I’m off on holiday to Jamaica on Tuesday and won’t be back before the cut off date.  I can’t afford to miss a month, or have an average score of my atrocious form this year.  I’m hoping for a mid table finish!  Tall order!  

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17.1°C provisional to 18th.

Reckon it'll slip below 17 over the next few days, before edging above it again after the BH maybe. Uncertain thereafter- and still with the ever-present downjustment shadow looming.

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14.7C (+0.3C) here to this morning, cooler nights are dragging it down steadily.

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Met Office Hadley            17.1c       Anomaly       1.2c Provisional to 18th

Metcheck                         16.76c     Anomaly       0.49c

Netweather                      17.41c     Anomaly        1.22c

Mean of My 10 Stations     17.25c     Anomaly        0.79c 

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Looks like the 17-ish brigade will all do fairly well, Col; another month in the bag for you. How do you do it?

As Caz says, there will be some downjustment no doubt; but I am pleased that we still held up in the 17s through this cool spell; I admit that did surprise me.

Vast majority went for the round average band- mid to high 16s- so again it might (I stress that word!) be the early risk-takers who harvest!

There is no secret formula I'm afraid, and if there was I wouldn't share it on here 🙂 I look at the past data, consider the trends and latest forecasts/models but I don't spend hours pouring over charts. The second half of the month can only really be an educated guess anyway.

Either that or I've just been very lucky and that will run out at some point!

 

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It was starting to look like very warm weather might only be around for 2-3 days this weekend onward, but the 12z runs have strongly revitalised the idea of seeing 4-6 days.

Remains to be seen if this holds, but if it does, then a mid-17s finish is plausible.

Otherwise, it was looking more like high 16s to low 17s depending on how much of a polar incursion there is at the tail end of the month (which may yet be delayed or dropped entirely... or brought forward. What fun! ).

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Met Office Hadley        17.1c.       Anomaly      1.1c. Provisional to 19th.

Metcheck                     16.59c      Anomaly      0.36c

Netweather                  17.32c      Anomaly      1.13c

Mean of my 10 stations   17.14c     Anomaly      0.68c.  

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Hmm... a clean split of low pressure (setting up a cut-off low fully to our south) enables a longer run of very warm to hot conditions on the 00z ECM and 06z FV3 runs. The 00z UKMO looked ripe for that too as of +144.

The ECM & FV3 runs suggest a final CET in the high 17s to low 18s depending on just how much of an upward bias adjustment is appropriate (the underestimation tends to become larger during exceptonally warm conditions).

Maybe a couple more days before such a clean split of LP this Sat-Sun can be considered 'locked-in', though.

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As predicted, it's dipped below 17, albeit temporarily. The upcoming warm spell looks like at least 5 days currently. That should prop it up in the first quarter of the 17s. Uncertain for the last 3 days, on current forecasts.

16.9°C to 20th, provisional, of course.

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Met Office Hadley            16.9c        Anomaly      1.0c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                         16.52c      Anomaly      0.29c

Netweather                      17.21c      Anomaly      1.02c

Mean of my 10 stations      17.11c     Anomaly      0.65c. 

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Met Office Hadley            16.9c        Anomaly      1.0c. Provisional to 20th.

Metcheck                         16.52c      Anomaly      0.29c

Netweather                      17.21c      Anomaly      1.02c

Mean of my 10 stations      17.11c     Anomaly      0.65c. 

Any idea of potential downgrades this month?

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Downgrades could be -  .39 to .49. We shall await the last day of the month.

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Downgrades could be -  .39 to .49. We shall await the last day of the month.

OK thanks. I could well need that if the upcoming warm/hot spell verifies as forecast!

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Holding up at 16.9 prov. to 21st.

Surprised it's done so well over the last few days, with some chillier nights.

What do people reckon now for the end of the month?

 

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Holding up at 16.9 prov. to 21st.

Surprised it's done so well over the last few days, with some chillier nights.

What do people reckon now for the end of the month?

 

 

I think the raw figure will be around the 17.5-17.7 mark, downjusted to 17.1-17.3

 

 

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Met Office Hadley        16.9c.       Anomaly       1.0c. Provisional to 21st.

Metcheck                     16.51c      Anomaly       0.29c

Netweather                  17.5c        Anomaly       0.69c

Mean of my 10 stations       17.5c     Anomaly    0.69c.   

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I think the raw figure will be around the 17.5-17.7 mark, downjusted to 17.1-17.3

 

 

!7.1 to 17.3C would suit me just fine 🙂 However I think we will end up e little higher than that, probably around 17.5C. The mid August cool spell has surely 'bottomed out' now and the figue didn't really fall quite as far as I had anticipated. And it looks like we have quite a bit of heat heading our way, and not just a couple of days but 5 days+.

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I think the raw figure will be around the 17.5-17.7 mark, downjusted to 17.1-17.3

 

 

I think that sounds about right; & it'll do me nicely.

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