After a brief lull when I was starting to think that all of the action was over, I then saw another fairly distant flash of lightning to my SE and heard the rumble of thunder from that, so this event isn't over yet.

In addition to that, this thunderstorm also produced a massive 11.0 mm of rain at Edinburgh Gogarbank in just the last hour alone (between 1pm and 2pm this afternoon) which is far more than enough to ensure that today will now go down as the wettest day of this year so far at that particular station by quite a considerable distance.

It is going to be interesting to see though what effects this has on the rainfall total at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh. Over on the PW, I reported that we were just 7 mm of rain away from this month being wetter than average there overall, and was questioning whether or not, this would actually happen. However, I wouldn't now be surprised if this particular thunderstorm has now given us more than enough to get us over that finishing line on its own in a oner.

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In the last wee while, there has been some further thunder and lightning but it is the rain which is causing the greatest interest at the moment because I don't think I've ever seen rain fall so intensely as what I'm seeing just now quite a number of year, and possibly even in my entire lifetime.

I know that this is Scotland but when we get rain here, it doesn't normally come down all that heavily. What I am seeing just now though is more typical of what you would tend to see during the wet Moonsoon season over in the likes of India, rather than here in Scotland.

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Latest MetO guidance takes an area of thundery rain over central southern areas up into Midlands and Northern England overnight, with the more severe storms on the eastern side of this affecting London area, E. Mids, some western parts of EA, and Lincs. Definite westward shift in their modelling this morning.

Let’s hope it stay westward and doesn’t swamp Lincolnshire again. That’s the last thing they need after the deluge they’ve already had around Wainfleet.  Not that I want flooding either, just a bit of thunder might be nice. 

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Let’s hope it stay westward and doesn’t swamp Lincolnshire again. That’s the last thing they need after the deluge they’ve already had around Wainfleet.  Not that I want flooding either, just a bit of thunder might be nice. 

I would say there's probably heavy rain involved for Lincs no matter what Caz - some models have shifted back east again now as well! Some really quite intense storms forecast for London area NNE'wd toward EA/Wash on some models - to the west of this it looks like heavy rain with some embedded thundery activity.

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In the last wee while, there has been some further thunder and lightning but it is the rain which is causing the greatest interest at the moment because I don't think I've ever seen rain fall so intensely as what I'm seeing just now quite a number of year, and possibly even in my entire lifetime.

I know that this is Scotland but when we get rain here, it doesn't normally come down all that heavily. What I am seeing just now though is more typical of what you would tend to see during the wet Moonsoon season over in the likes of India, rather than here in Scotland.

 

Be interesting to see if it gets picked up at the rainfall gauges, it looks v bad in West Edinburgh according to the pictures on the evening news site. Sometimes the rain is so concentrated it falls between the gauge locations. I know a couple of weeks ago I got caught in torrential rain just south of the bypass - road flooding, water running down the pentlands etc - total at gogarbank for the six-hour period? 1mm.

 

EDIT: Blimey jings! 38mm in the last hour at Murrayburn, 55mm in the last 2.  Gogarbank with 28mm for the last 2 hours.

 

It has honestly only been a bit drizzly here near Cameron Toll this afternoon as well.

 

https://apps.sepa.org.uk/rainfall

 

 

Be interesting to see if it gets picked up at the rainfall gauges, it looks v bad in West Edinburgh according to the pictures on the evening news site. Sometimes the rain is so concentrated it falls between the gauge locations. I know a couple of weeks ago I got caught in torrential rain just south of the bypass - road flooding, water running down the pentlands etc - total at gogarbank for the six-hour period? 1mm.

 

EDIT: Blimey jings! 38mm in the last hour at Murrayburn, 55mm in the last 2.  Gogarbank with 28mm for the last 2 hours.

 

It has honestly only been a bit drizzly here near Cameron Toll this afternoon as well.

 

https://apps.sepa.org.uk/rainfall

From weathercast.co.uk, I recorded a maximum of 12.8 mm of rain on a single hour at Edinburgh Gogarbank and this also takes today's total for there so far to an astonishing 36.5 mm as at 3pm this afternoon.

This is roughly half of this month's entire 1981-2010 average June rainfall for that particular station which has fallen just within this single day so far and that's only up until 3pm this afternoon.

It would be interesting to go all the back to see what the all time record is for our highest ever daily rainfall total here in Edinburgh but since I first joined this forum back in 2016, that is the highest daily total which I can remember ever reporting here on this forum since then.

What is even more bizzare though is that according to the same sources at weathercast.co.uk, a total of just 12.8 mm was recorded at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh which is the nearest station to where I live, for today so far as at 3pm this afternoon and that isn't even enough to make today the wettest day of this summer so far at that station.

Given how intense those downpours have been though, I believe that the totals for there should be much higher than what has been reported so far. Given that these are very localised events, it may well be that the rain just wasn't as heavy at that particular station as it was where I live.

However, it may also be that not all of today's total has been accounted for yet and if that is the case, the total as at 4pm this afternoon might be higher at that particular station as a result. Furthermore, it has also started raining yet since I first started this reply, though not as intensely this time and without any thunder or lightning this time. That will however, add even more to those rainfall totals for today and it is now possible that this month's total at Edinburgh Gogarbank will now end up going over 100 mm by the end of this month as a result, for the first time since that wettest June on record back in 2017.

 

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I would say there's probably heavy rain involved for Lincs no matter what Caz - some models have shifted back east again now as well! Some really quite intense storms forecast for London area NNE'wd toward EA/Wash on some models - to the west of this it looks like heavy rain with some embedded thundery activity.

  Oh dear!  Let’s hope they’ve cleared out the drainage dykes in Lincolnshire then, so they flow to the sea quickly.  

But, it looks like I could see some pyrotechnics tonight, if I can stay awake!  

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Convergence line of cells looks to be forming on Welsh border...

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Here on the western fringes of the zone with severe thunderstorm potential (according to the majority of outlooks I've seen), it's been sunnier and warmer than modelled, now getting into the 24s instead of topping out near 22*C.

From what I've read, it seems there's a chance this could enable some surface-based storms to feature tonight, though elevated is expected to be the main form.

Model solutions still vary greatly with the most severe impact; HIRLAM slams me with what looks like a supercell but ARPEGE has a more general band of activity passing just east of Southampton, while AROME places a similar feature in line with London.

 

Going to be A LOT of fun to track, this one!

Also, I have a 'thunderstorm headache' coming on .

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 I would say there's probably heavy rain involved for Lincs no matter what Caz - some models have shifted back east again now as well! Some really quite intense storms forecast for London area NNE'wd toward EA/Wash on some models - to the west of this it looks like heavy rain with some embedded thundery activity.

Tonight's environment looks the best I've seen for some time, and even though most storms will be elevated, they could easily be severe.

I'd put a bit more weight on the more eastward models and I think the SE is more likely to be in the firing line (Sussex, Surrey, Kent, London, Berkshire etc.), but exact trajectories are hard to predict.

 

 

Icons view of tonights rainfall.

All eyes to the south .....

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Some patchy rain now as the sky starts to take on that pre thundery look. Lots of swirly underneath and even a small patch of mammatus.

beginning ro feel slightly optimistic of a seeing a storm tonight.

Good test of some of the models tonight - it's a really messy situation with a variety of solutions still being offered at such short notice.

Nothing to worry about given the lack of activity just now - I'd expect things to really get moving by about 9pm in the Channel/ N. France. Wouldn't rule out some rogue stuff developing ahead of that, mind.

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Icons view of tonights rainfall.

Oh dear! If that comes off Wainfleet is in the 40mm zone!  

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Icons view of tonights rainfall.

I’ll take that!

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Good test of some of the models tonight - it's a really messy situation with a variety of solutions still being offered at such short notice.

Nothing to worry about given the lack of activity just now - I'd expect things to really get moving by about 9pm in the Channel/ N. France. Wouldn't rule out some rogue stuff developing ahead of that, mind.

Hmmm. Whisper it quietly, but signs that something might have initiated west of Le Mans. We'll see.

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Oh dear! If that comes off Wainfleet is in the 40mm zone!  

Hi Caz.

It has been a warm, muggy day in Lincolnshire.

I was near Wainfleet today but have nothing to report from the village - other than the BBC piece:

Wainfleet flooding: Clean-up 'could take months'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-48742161

Roger

 

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A couple of storms have fired up in the last couple of radar frames - one just north of Andover, and the other right over the M4 between Reading and Newbury. This traffic cam shows the road is very wet.

http://public.highwaystrafficcameras.co.uk/cctvpublicaccess/html/52863.html

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Hi Caz.

It has been a warm, muggy day in Lincolnshire.

I was near Wainfleet today but have nothing to report from the village - other than the BBC piece:

Wainfleet flooding: Clean-up 'could take months'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-lincolnshire-48742161

Roger

I hope you get a good display tonight with no damage Roger!  At least you’ve got a new roof now!  

I really want to stay awake to watch for the first signs at least, but I was up at 3 this morning and I’m already flagging.  

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