Arcus
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24 June 2019 18:49:51

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Hmmm. Whisper it quietly, but signs that something might have initiated west of Le Mans. We'll see.



Yep, 0 to 60 in less than half an hour. Strikes coming back from those cells now.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
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Caz
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24 June 2019 18:51:47

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Hmmm. Whisper it quietly, but signs that something might have initiated west of Le Mans. We'll see.


  Yes!  Looks like it!


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ballamar
24 June 2019 18:53:51
You can see intense convection in N France could be very lively
eddied
24 June 2019 19:14:26

Originally Posted by: Caz 


  Yes!  Looks like it!



 


the sferics there have fired up in the last half hour. Nothing major yet but they’re sparking. 


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Arcus
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24 June 2019 19:20:55
Worth pointing out that some forcing evident over our shores as well as a few homegrown showers are popping up - Reading/Oxford, MK, Peterborough etc.
Ben,
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Arcus
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24 June 2019 19:49:46
Really getting going down there in that cluster of cells NW of Le Mans.
Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
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Rob K
24 June 2019 19:52:19
The 12Z high-res models generally seem to have moved the main focus of the storms quite a long way east, more Sussex and Kent rather than Hampshire.
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ballamar
24 June 2019 19:56:17
That storm over France if it keeps formed could be severe over Sussex/ Kent later.
Caz
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24 June 2019 19:58:41

Originally Posted by: Arcus 

Really getting going down there in that cluster of cells NW of Le Mans.

Hmm!  I’m thinking if I go to sleep now and get up at 3am again, it might have arrived here.  


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Arcus
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24 June 2019 20:02:38

Originally Posted by: Rob K 

The 12Z high-res models generally seem to have moved the main focus of the storms quite a long way east, more Sussex and Kent rather than Hampshire.


Sferic and radar watching is the only reliable source of info in this situation. Storm MV is generally N, which is backed up by sferic track currently.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
Caz
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24 June 2019 20:03:38

Originally Posted by: ballamar 

That storm over France if it keeps formed could be severe over Sussex/ Kent later.

Yes and it’s in the exact same place, taking the same path, as the one they exported last Tuesday night.  That one came in at Eastbourne! 


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Arcus
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24 June 2019 20:15:17

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Yes and it’s in the exact same place, taking the same path, as the one they exported last Tuesday night.  That one came in at Eastbourne! 



Worthing, thence onto  London would be my guess. As these storms elevate and become more powerful they will may exhibit idiosyncratic steering compared to "normal" flow, so it's a finger-in-the-air job.


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
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Caz
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24 June 2019 20:19:10

Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Worthing, thence onto  London would be my guess. As these storms elevate and become more powerful they will may exhibit idiosyncratic steering compared to "normal" flow, so it's a finger-in-the-air job.


Brighton!  And I’m sticking this time!  


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The Beast from the East
24 June 2019 20:22:23
Sadly looks like my leaky roof will leave some more stains on the ceiling when it dries up. Hope the worst misses me but looks like a direct hit. Yuk!
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Arcus
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24 June 2019 20:23:59

Originally Posted by: Caz 


Brighton!  And I’m sticking this time!  




Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
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Polar Low
24 June 2019 20:27:01

Nice, expanding nicely


https://en.sat24.com/en


 


 


 


Originally Posted by: Arcus 


 


Worthing, thence onto  London would be my guess. As these storms elevate and become more powerful they will may exhibit idiosyncratic steering compared to "normal" flow, so it's a finger-in-the-air job.


Polar Low
24 June 2019 20:32:34


https://meteoradar.co.uk/lightning-europe


im going to peeved if this misses Chelmsford 


 

ballamar
24 June 2019 20:42:21

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 



https://meteoradar.co.uk/lightning-europe


im going to peeved if this misses Chelmsford 


 



Think it might be a glancing blow though

Polar Low
24 June 2019 20:45:13

 cant make it up


Precipitation accum. EURO4 Tu 25.06.2019 12 UTC


 


 


Originally Posted by: ballamar 


 


Think it might be a glancing blow though


Arcus
  • Arcus
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24 June 2019 20:49:59

Originally Posted by: Polar Low 


 cant make it up


 


 


East, West.... West... East.... Short range models at T+0.... Ditch 'Em 


Ben,
Nr. Easingwold, North Yorkshire
30m asl
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