Yep, looks like the potential in MetO's eyes is less than originally forecast. Some 6z models did reduce the risk, looks like they've agreed with that guidance.

In other words, this now looks like being just one of many non-events in this part of the world within this so called "summer" which itself, has also been massive non-event here up until now.

 

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Updated 12z faxes:

Messy... but plenty of potential there.

The daughter low centred over N. England that some of the models have been picking up is clearly shown.

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Updated 12z faxes:

Messy... but plenty of potential there.

The daughter low centred over N. England that some of the models have been picking up is clearly shown.

 

how do you rate the chances for our part of the world?

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how do you rate the chances for our part of the world?

Tomorrow night could be more rain than storms for Yorks on that frontal band, but I would not rule out storms forming behind the initial rain band (trough on the fax for 00z Monday). I suspect best potential tomorrow lies more for NE England/Borders overnight into Monday morning.

Monday into Tuesday then it's really and wait and see scenario - there's potential there for sure, so a radar/sat watching brief I suspect. 

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Been a fair but of AC about this evening 

Been a fair but of AC about thjis evening 

hick 

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Lightning map currently showing strikes in Yorkshire around the Ripon area.

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No thunder or lightning here in Edinburgh, but we have just had some very torrential rain which in just one hour alone between 4am and 5am this morning, had dumped 6.0 mm of rain onto Edinburgh Gogarbank along with 7.2 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh and if my memory serves me right, the is the highest total for just a single hour which we have had during this year so far at both of those stations.

This is also enough to mean that instead of the average month in terms of rainfall which this month was looking like being up until now, there is now the chance that we could end up joining the southern half of the UK in terms of being wetter than average this month after all (albeit not to the same extent).

Having said that though, this rain is already clearing away to the north and is even doing so much more quickly than what had been forecast. The forecast was also correct in that you have to go down south to find any lightning strikes on the latest radar map. All in all and unless there is some more heavy rain at some point in time during today, this means that the decision by the Met Office to extend today's yellow warning across the whole of today is also being shown to be a totally pointless exercise and a complete waste of time.

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No thunder or lightning here in Edinburgh, but we have just had some very torrential rain which in just one hour alone between 4am and 5am this morning, had dumped 6.0 mm of rain onto Edinburgh Gogarbank along with 7.2 mm at the botanic gardens in Edinburgh and if my memory serves me right, the is the highest total for just a single hour which we have had during this year so far at both of those stations.

This is also enough to mean that instead of the average month in terms of rainfall which this month was looking like being up until now, there is now the chance that we could end up joining the southern half of the UK in terms of being wetter than average this month after all (albeit not to the same extent).

Having said that though, this rain is already clearing away to the north and is even doing so much more quickly than what had been forecast. The forecast was also correct in that you have to go down south to find any lightning strikes on the latest radar map. All in all and unless there is some more heavy rain at some point in time during today, this means that the decision by the Met Office to extend today's yellow warning across the whole of today is also being shown to be a totally pointless exercise and a complete waste of time.

The lightning map shows strikes just North of you John, around St Andrews.  So I think the warnings were right as they did say they’d be scattered and not everywhere would get T storms.  You still might get something though as there are strikes in The Borders and it’s pushing North.  Good luck!  

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The warning is also more for the rain, of which there is plenty around.

The warning states the potential for between 20 and 40mm up to midnight tonight. We will see at that point how accurate it will have been.

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The lightning map shows strikes just North of you John, around St Andrews.  So I think the warnings were right as they did say they’d be scattered and not everywhere would get T storms.  You still might get something though as there are strikes in The Borders and it’s pushing North.  Good luck!  

I have noticed that both the Netweather and TWO rain radar maps are picking up on a huge batch of storms moving up from England around Carlisle and into Dumfries and Galloway, but I'm not seeing too much apart from that for the moment (although that doesn't necessarily mean that further storms won't develop in the heat of today).

We shall see what happens later on but then, I do live in the most boring part of the UK on average when it comes to our weather and that alone tells me not to really expect anything in this part of the world.

 

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As for prospects for today, there are signs currently of showers breaking out in the midlands ahead of the mass of rain coming up from France. I'd expect these to become more widespread and turning thundery over the next few hours as they push north.

Tonight is an interesting one - some potentially strong storms coming up from France affecting quite a wide area. Models are differing somewhat on the positioning of these storms - some take them E of IOW affecting SE England parts of E. Mids and EA overnight , other models take this area further west, affecting more C. Southern England, Mids and into Lincs/E. Yorks. Radar watching brief on this one, but the really strong (possibly violent) storms will be on the eastern side of this system.

 

 

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Some places are going to get clobbered tonight.

http://www.estofex.org/

 

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Some places are going to get clobbered tonight.

http://www.estofex.org/

 

I see that the level 2 warning covers Kent and East Sussex.  Could be interesting...

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Latest MetO guidance takes an area of thundery rain over central southern areas up into Midlands and Northern England overnight, with the more severe storms on the eastern side of this affecting London area, E. Mids, some western parts of EA, and Lincs. Definite westward shift in their modelling this morning.

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As for prospects for today, there are signs currently of showers breaking out in the midlands ahead of the mass of rain coming up from France. I'd expect these to become more widespread and turning thundery over the next few hours as they push north.

Tonight is an interesting one - some potentially strong storms coming up from France affecting quite a wide area. Models are differing somewhat on the positioning of these storms - some take them E of IOW affecting SE England parts of E. Mids and EA overnight , other models take this area further west, affecting more C. Southern England, Mids and into Lincs/E. Yorks. Radar watching brief on this one, but the really strong (possibly violent) storms will be on the eastern side of this system.

 

That's what I assume will be the case. We have had recent weather warnings for Dorset that have been just that 'warnings', in recent days with nothing in the end to show for it. Could be third time lucky to see some thundery activity (first of the year) in Dorset for tonights event but I doubt it and probably most activity will be to the east as you suggest.

I had thought of cancelling going out on Sunday (carbon rods and lightning not a good combination) but in the end went as it looked like it would remain dry from the radar which it did. Others remained at home though based on the dire forecast the night before. 

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Quite a few big downpours about up here, but still no thunder unfortunately.

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Quite a few big downpours about up here, but still no thunder unfortunately.

Same here in Edinburgh as well.

Unlike in other recent days, there's been no shortage of rain in this part of the world during today.

However, there's still not been any thunder here.

From that, I can now see exactly why the Met Office changed today's original yellow warning for thunderstorms to just one for rain.

 

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Just a moment ago, I heard what I has turned out to be a loud but distant rumble of thunder and then a few minutes, I then saw a bit of lightning from my front window.

At long last, something interesting has actually happened as the thunderstorms have finally arrived in this area.

I could see this coming as well because for a while, it had been getting very dark here for the time of year (especially since we are just a couple of days past the summer solstice).

As I write as well, the rain has also started hammering down yet again after having stopped for a while and the rain radar map is currently showing some very intense colours heading in this direction.

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That was quite a loud crack of thunder which we have just had which means that this storm cell is obviously very close by.

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