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Arpege has 26C 850s at just 90 hours out, over Devon. Surely that would be a UK record, regardless of the surface temps (also about 25-26C according to Arpege!)
As far as I'm aware the 850 UK record is 22c in August 2003, so we should beat that easily. A more favourable wind direction this week and we would of beat the 2m temp record as well no question.
That twitter graphic was both wrong and unprofessional. They probably had that view because the EC ensemble and some other models still had much less N.Sea influence, but it was still wrong.Anyway, there is still a role for mets, but they have to be really good as the models keep getting better. That role is in 2 areas mostly:understand the drivers of weather where possible, which can help immensely in periods of model volatility or pre-empting big model shifts. People who cannot do it think it's impossible to do, but it is possible and very valuable indeed.better post-processing of model output: bias correction can be really sophisticated (not just adding 2-3C on sunny summer days or lowering raw output by 2-3C in cold winters nights), but you can even have pattern dependent bias correction etc. Even amateur mets identify systematic model errors (e.g, the winter northerlies of GFS which then become topplers or the tendency of the EC op runs to produce too many cold easterlies in winter at days 7-10 etc.).Mets who don't do this find themselves increasingly just relaying model output and being subject to its errors and volatility, so they add little value. This is a process that Keith Browning (a great met teacher) had called meteorological cancer.
That twitter graphic was both wrong and unprofessional. They probably had that view because the EC ensemble and some other models still had much less N.Sea influence, but it was still wrong.
Anyway, there is still a role for mets, but they have to be really good as the models keep getting better. That role is in 2 areas mostly:
Mets who don't do this find themselves increasingly just relaying model output and being subject to its errors and volatility, so they add little value. This is a process that Keith Browning (a great met teacher) had called meteorological cancer.
Met Office still going for 32c on Friday in the West
Their graphic from the weekend had 29C today in East Anglia. So far the max has been 26C as far as I can see.
Mighty close Q I keep looking for a Heat Low coming up from France that would change things quite dramatically but I can’t find one yet across the set plenty of time for upgrades I do feel we are at the very low end of the potential Temps at the moment imo.
Wind direction for Friday (the highest 850s). Its still got a northerly component for most of the SE. Only place really managing to advect that warm continental air is the SW.I suppose though a relatively small change in wind direction could have a big impact on temperatures.EDIT: Some record high temperatures possible for the channel islands?
Wind direction for Friday (the highest 850s). Its still got a northerly component for most of the SE. Only place really managing to advect that warm continental air is the SW.
I suppose though a relatively small change in wind direction could have a big impact on temperatures.
EDIT: Some record high temperatures possible for the channel islands?
Yes bit off today looks like 26/27 in the Norfolk area. A new tweet just now from the Met has 33c in the west country on Friday. They are still going against the models.
A heat low from France is a good call - not because it’ll happen but because these things are hard to model at mesoscale (easier when they’re synoptic scale). Would help disrupt wind direction and mix up the profile. Of course we might instead get an unexpected blow up of thundery convection over the channel and a load of outflow cirrus that ruins our sunny skies and keeps temps down.No sign of either on the models so far.
The little troublemaker that is helping out with tonight's fun and games started life as a thermal low over Spain.
That has a better chance of happening as it depends on the exact timing of the low level wind reversal, but it's still unlikely IMO.
Just noticed one of the MetO side bars is flagging up the possibility of 35C in London later this week. Very close to the all time June record.
Is it a new piece or just a link to the old Saturday graphics?
ECM very nice this evening with the Azores high ridging in well by days 9 and 10.
Beat me to it. Looks very nice after a brief blip.
If you hate heat and humidity, you'll love this chart
UKMO 144
and GFS 2m
I don't know TBH. It was a direct quote but the problem now is articles are republished multiple times by many publishers in an attempt to increase impressions and revenue.
Not sure if i'm posting in the correct thread here, but what happened to last night's thunderstorms? Just a bit of moderate rain, which failed to get going until late in the night.
Arpege still showing a bubble of 26C 850hPa air over Dartmoor on Thursday. Remarkable and almost all the more remarkable that temperatures on the ground will be basically the same as that, if not a few degrees cooler!
In years (or months) to come people will write about this. Quite a freakish combination of upper level heat and lower level freshness.
A couple of other events come to mind from the past:
In years (or months) to come people will write about this. Quite a freakish combination of upper level heat and lower level freshness.A couple of other events come to mind from the past:The hot spell culminating in 30 June 1995. Britain had a high slap bang over us and 850s above 15C for more than a week, but until the last 2 or 3 days much of the country was cool and cloudy with North Sea flow. Then on the 30th after the hottest day of the spell a sea breeze front came in under still very hot uppers and slammed the temperature down by over 15C in less than an hourAugust 2003: oft forgotten now but on the Thursday and Friday of that week, again under very hot uppers, the South East struggled to rise above 22C despite blue sunny skies. I remember being flummoxed at the time. Both days the temperature suddenly took off to 30C in late afternoon. That was a very similar set up to this week but of course was August with much warmer SSTs.
Correct and good memory.