Arpege still showing a bubble of 26C 850hPa air over Dartmoor on Thursday. Remarkable and almost all the more remarkable that temperatures on the ground will be basically the same as that, if not a few degrees cooler!

I have to say we do have some very knowledgeable and unbiased members on here who have explained the situation extremely well.  The posts on here have been first class over the past few days!  Thank you!  

Azores really wants to build in strongly in about a week hopefully this signal sticks.

Outside of the cool down after this weeks humid warmth/heat the models all look warm to very warm to me with a flattening rain signal suggesting it'll be pretty dry too as the Azores high bosses things for the foreseeable. 

Azores really wants to build in strongly in about a week hopefully this signal sticks.

 

Hopefully till October ! maybe looking better the Greenland High much deflated and NW Russian High gone too.

EC op going for a partial repeat later next week with high uppers, but a low level flow off the N.Sea keeping surface temps suppressed.

More heat for C&S France (high 30s)

EC op going for a partial repeat later next week with high uppers, but a low level flow off the N.Sea keeping surface temps suppressed.

More heat for C&S France (high 30s)

 

Yes there does seem to be increasing signs of high pressure edging in from the west Ormrod southwest in a week to tend days time so hopefully there will not be too much in the way of unsettled conditions for the end of the month and into July. Quite “useable” looking weather at a glance.

EC op going for a partial repeat later next week with high uppers, but a low level flow off the N.Sea keeping surface temps suppressed.

More heat for C&S France (high 30s)

 

Looked like a stunning run. That pesky North sea. 

By 240hrs ECM looks pretty warm to me with a fairly slack flow and the 20C isotherm not too far away to the south?

Raw max values are high 10s on Wed and 22-24C on Thu and Fri (next week). The same run has 40C in France on all 3 days.

A very dry and pleasant run though 

Raw max values are high 10s on Wed and 22-24C on Thu and Fri (next week). The same run has 40C in France on all 3 days.

A very dry and pleasant run though 

Its ensemble was also high pressure dominated with a lot of dry weather (so much for the summer is over posts of the last 2 weeks).

Yup good mean also firming up on Hot Saturday especially for the s/e 22 uppers in that area by then

 

Its ensemble was also high pressure dominated with a lot of dry weather (so much for the summer is over posts of the last 2 weeks).

 

Yup good mean also firming up on Hot Saturday especially for the s/e 22 uppers in that area by then

 

Yeah, 32-33C is quite likely on Saturday north of London and a decent chance of 34C.

GFS Op low max temperatures are concerning me- not because of some personalised irritation I have to them, but because they are regularly short of the actual achieved max temps at the moment, whereas they often seem quite charitable at medium range; 2 degrees out today. Several degrees out of the persistent MetO forecast. Is this caution or sense?

Today’s GFS 06z brings us 850s never seen before on these isles (26C at one point), and parks 28C+ uppers over central France with low 40s maxima.

I note none of the other models get anything close to this. Could it be an issue with the new GFS release? Or are we about to test the June record?

Just wanted to freshen up this post Tim as it's the first on the MOD that sees the unsure reality, a week ahead. 

Relevance: sometimes the models do verify at that range.

 

Its ensemble was also high pressure dominated with a lot of dry weather (so much for the summer is over posts of the last 2 weeks).

 

It is well worth reading back through some of those posts, if one fancies a wry smile. Some very pleasant, warm but not oppressively hot, weather on the cards mid term from the models.

I have to say we do have some very knowledgeable and unbiased members on here who have explained the situation extremely well.  The posts on here have been first class over the past few days!  Thank you!  

Seconded!

And on the GEFS watch, there's still very little rainfall shown down here in the forecast period:

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Could we break TWO 850hpa temp records, warmest and coldest?

the -5C isotherm approaching Shetland in July seems every bit as remarkable as the 25C isotherm approaching the south coast.

 

Its ensemble was also high pressure dominated with a lot of dry weather (so much for the summer is over posts of the last 2 weeks).

 

Indeed and it that style of posting which led to the temporary close of this forum a while ago. Discussion has been much better since then but if they return I'll close down again if need be.

GFS less keen on on the Azores HP having as much influence this morning, showing an LP system slipping down the E coast/ N Sea towards day 8